22LR Shortage OveR?!?!?!?

[krwada]

End of the .22LR bubble

Yes ... that is what it is.

The .22LR "shortage" was nothing more than a classical bubble.

The bubble is now showing signs of receding.

This is the way it works.

The next thing to happen will be ... There will be lots of used reloading equipment up for sale on the Internets in about a year if not sooner.

It is now very easy to purchase very reasonably priced centerfire ammo in many places now...

The drop in .22LR prices and .22LR availability will soon follow.

First; we shall see availability go up for .22LR .... and I mean way up.

After this ... the prices will come down.

[skeleman63]

Three different stores by me had it....

[skeleman63]

I just went back tonight and picked up another 300 CCI standard and 4 more boxes of ZQi 7.62. They have tons of the CCI left. This is at the college grove Walmart.

Was it on the shelf yet or still hidden under the counter???

[Dutch3]

I still can't find 22 though. I keep seeing posts that guys are finding it online but I haven't found squat in almost a year(bulk packs worth buying). Guess I'm busier than most and don't spend as much time looking.

Yesterday was the first time I had actually seen .22 at the Oroville Wal Mart in years. I hadn't really been actively looking, but always checked the ammo counter when I happened to be there.

I had to pick up a few things yesterday, so went in early on the chance they would be putting more out for their 2-day sale.

Right place, right time, I guess.

[G.F.C.]

Walmart has been stocking up for the event for a bit. Why a 'hunting sale' with only .22 CCI on sale? Your guess is as good as mine. But there was a LOT of it sent around the country. From what I'm told as soon as the event is over it'll wind down and we'll be back to buying 3 boxes of 50 before 9:02am.

[thetaxman]

$4.75 per 100 of Federal 40gr blue box is the lowest price I have found here in Texas from Academy (think Dicks or Big 5). I drive past the place every day so easy to pick up the 100rd per day limit.

So yes, it's getting much better.

[G21Shooter]

Yes ... that is what it is.

The .22LR "shortage" was nothing more than a classical bubble.

The bubble is now showing signs of receding.

Another very valid point in the video, there is over double the yearly firearm background checks since the early 2000s and NOT a double of the production of ammo.

The ammo manufactures must not think this "shortage" is going to last if they aren't increasing production.

[GreggieBoy]

Don't think we're out of the woods yet, but we are starting to see move availability. Maybe the weather changing and less opportunity to shoot in certain parts of the country.

Would be great to walk into a Walmart, Big 5, or wherever on a Sunday afternoon and see 500 rounds of your favorite bulk ammo on sale. And if the flippers go out of business because the availability is too high, the all the better. Even better is if they get hurt not being able to unload their prized stashes they stuck it to the rest of us with. Makes you smile just think about it!

[krwada]

.22LR ammunition

Another very valid point in the video, there is over double the yearly firearm background checks since the early 2000s and NOT a double of the production of ammo.

The ammo manufactures must not think this "shortage" is going to last if they aren't increasing production.

I have a friend who works for the CCI company in Lewiston Idaho. He is a manager there. In early 2013 he said that they will ramp up production by adding extra shifts and adding any extra capacity in their EXISTING facility. But beyond that ... they have no plans for expansion.

He also said, (early 2013), that at their current capacity, along with the modest expansion, they expect to run large backlogs till around at least 2015. The suits at ATK pretty much assessed that most of the run on ammunition was just that ... a run. They also decided that they would do modest increases in capacity and let the run take its course.

They did not think this panic buying of firearms and ammunition would last much beyond 2015. They did take note that the number of new shooters may have increased ... not by the 100%, (double) as you point out. but by a more modest yet significant amount ... something along the lines of around 35% to 40%. This is because they believe a pretty strong number of firearms sales and NICS checks are most likely by repeat purchasers of the firearms.

However ... a 35% increase in new shooters is a very healthy and good number in my book. I have also seen articles that appear to confirm this by the increases in membership of the pro-2A groups like the NRA.

[G21Shooter]

Interesting, well hopefully CCI/ATK are correct and the run on .22 lr ammo won't last.

[krwada]

ATK

Interesting, well hopefully CCI/ATK are correct and the run on .22 lr ammo won't last.

In early 2013 ... I decided to purchase a big pile of ATK stock. I bought the stuff for around $65 and change.



I dumped the whole lot after it peaked at around $140 or so. I managed to unload it at around $130 in the April to May 2014 time frame.

Well ... if others here at Calguns are correct, and there is no end in sight with the shortage of .22LR ... and companies like ATK continue to make tons of additional revenue on firearms and ammo... well this will not be the 1st time I was on the wrong side of the trade!

Also as a note:
My friend over at CCI posted this information PUBLICLY over at the now defunct ATK-sponsored site ... "The Reloader HUB". As ATK's fortunes peaked out in May of 2014, ATK decided to "pull the plug" on the "Reloader HUB". Most of the "Reloader HUB" community is now at a much smaller site called 2A Munitions.

As an active investor ... I need to be very careful with information. I also tell friends to not tell me too much information about the companies they work for. General info, like trends they see in the industry are fine ... like the ATK outlook on .22LR ammunition. Specific information like CEO resignations, mergers, buybacks etc ... are strictly forbidden. That stuff is called insider trading and carries a very stiff felony penalty if convicted ... Which the Feds are more than eager to do.

[bass_blaster]

Was it on the shelf yet or still hidden under the counter???

One on the shelf and several cases under the counter.

[GM4spd]

With a limit of three boxes,I don't see how it is over. Pete

[Paperchasin]

With a limit of three boxes,I don't see how it is over. Pete

Agreed... I miss the days of walking into Walmart and clearing their shelves

[MrSam]

With a limit of three boxes,I don't see how it is over. Pete

Beats Turner's; 1 box per customer