Remember When "Sweden Had It Right?"

[Den60]

Meanwhile in Sweden:

https://www.thelocal.se/20201116/breaking-sweden-introduces-limit-of-eight-coronavirus

The new limit is part of the Public Order Act and therefore is a law, not a recommendation like many of Sweden's coronavirus measures. People who violate the ban by organising larger events could face fines or even imprisonment of up to six months.

Meanwhile in Kalifornia:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/california-statewide-curfew-covid-19-surge-gov-newsom

[bigbossman]

They added to the pandemic confusion and created a cudgel to beat President Trump for their own political gain. And now they want cooperation?!

This pretty much sums up the current situation.

[Den60]

I read this statistic this morning and decided to look it up. After the spike in cases in Sweden during the initial outbreak, the weekly death rate has tracked along the same path as in the years 2015-2019.

" From 12 to week 26 in 2020, the average daily number of deaths per week in Sweden was higher than the daily average in the years 2015 to 2019. Several of the deaths in the first half of 2020 were related to the coronavirus epidemic. The highest number of coronavirus deaths were among individuals aged 70 years and older. Sweden was the Nordic country that reported the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in 2020 so far. All in all, the number of deaths in Sweden in 2020 amounted to about 60 thousand as of October 23."

[Den60]

I find it interesting that the COVID "experts" on here haven't commented on the graph I posted.

[duenor]

I find it interesting that the COVID "experts" on here haven't commented on the graph I posted.

There's little interest in responding to your graph because Sweden itself has openly said that it needs to change its strategy (and has already done so as of two weeks ago). They've basically conceded that their strategy is not working; you are saying that it is because of a graph that you are misreading.

1) deaths does not equal severity of situation, because it is not the possible negative outcome of an uncontrolled outbreak
2) death is an extreme lagging indicator, further complicated by Sweden's unique reporting process.

You can read about it here, although I suspect most will not because minds are already made up. Here is an excerpt:

COVID-19 deaths are reported by the Swedish government by the date on which the death occurred.

Since there is a lag between the time a person dies and the time the death is reported, the death counts for the most recent period are always incomplete. They are often most incomplete for the latest 2 to 5 days, but can be incomplete for 10 days or more. This undercount in recent days means that they often appear to be falling; but when this is later completed, data shows that more deaths were occurring during that period.

This means that for the last 10 days of data, death counts in Sweden must only be interpreted as incomplete measures of mortality.

As an example, this chart shows what confirmed deaths looked like for the period from October 20 to October 29, when the data was first published on October 30 (red series), and once many more death certificates had been added on November 12 (blue series).

One day after October 29, it looked as if deaths had peaked on October 27 and then started to fall, but in reality that’s not what happened over this period. What actually happened is shown by the blue series: deaths increased steadily.

This also means that each day, the Swedish government will add new deaths for multiple days in the past—mostly on recent days, but on average up to 10 days in the past, and sometimes even more, if deaths have been reported with a long delay.

Our source for COVID-19 deaths, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, updates its figures for Sweden directly from the Swedish government’s data. This means that these daily changes affecting the historical data will be visible on our charts.

Sweden is the only country for which the European CDC currently applies this method for the reporting of deaths. It is also important to note that this does not apply to confirmed cases, but only to confirmed deaths.

and here is a graph illustrating the point:

[bigbossman]

I find it interesting that the COVID "experts" on here haven't commented on the graph I posted.

They are not experts, they just regurgitate whatever they can find that confirms their bias.

[Den60]

There's little interest in responding to your graph because Sweden itself has openly said that it needs to change its strategy (and has already done so as of two weeks ago). They've basically conceded that their strategy is not working; you are saying that it is because of a graph that you are misreading.

1) deaths does not equal severity of situation, because it is not the possible negative outcome of an uncontrolled outbreak
2) death is an extreme lagging indicator, further complicated by Sweden's unique reporting process.

You can read about it here, although I suspect most will not because minds are already made up. Here is an excerpt:

and here is a graph illustrating the point:

Throw out the last 2 or 3 weeks, I don't care. I didn't even refer to the last couple of weeks showing a sharp decline because it looks erroneous and likely due to the "lag time" in reporting. However, a lag in reporting doesn't explain week 27 through 42. Since the initial "spike," deaths in Sweden have not been at an unusual rate.

And I don't care if Sweden is changing the way it has responded. I am not making that point, only that they don't seem to be doing any worse than most other countries that have imposed the restrictions you promote - France, the UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy. I am hearing even the Netherlands is having more issues.

[AR15fan]

Sweden has not changed its strategy. Those are lies by the socialist members of CalGuns

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-11-13/second-wave-same-strategy-swedish-covid-19-czar-defiant-despite-surge

[FatCity67]

I find it interesting that the COVID "experts" on here haven't commented on the graph I posted.

Covid "Drones"

[Den60]

They are not experts, they just regurgitate whatever they can find that confirms their bias.

Yeah, and then he posts a graph showing an increase in COVID deaths when I am speaking to the fact that deaths per week seems to be inline with deaths for 2015-2019 after the initial "COVID spike" last Spring.

Most people would find such data to be encouraging for the future. Of course, both Duenor and Balgor hate good news when it comes to this disease.

[duenor]

Sweden has not changed its strategy. Those are lies by the socialist members of CalGuns

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...-despite-surge

Congrats, you are pointing to news from November 13th to refute changes that were announced in Sweden on November 16th.

[wpage]

Good...
[
QUOTE=Den60;25098694]I read this statistic this morning and decided to look it up. After the spike in cases in Sweden during the initial outbreak, the weekly death rate has tracked along the same path as in the years 2015-2019.

" From 12 to week 26 in 2020, the average daily number of deaths per week in Sweden was higher than the daily average in the years 2015 to 2019. Several of the deaths in the first half of 2020 were related to the coronavirus epidemic. The highest number of coronavirus deaths were among individuals aged 70 years and older. Sweden was the Nordic country that reported the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in 2020 so far. All in all, the number of deaths in Sweden in 2020 amounted to about 60 thousand as of October 23."

G
Death rates are falling all around. That is the very good news...
[/QUOTE]

[Den60]

Duenor's response...

[SanDiego619]

Do people still care about the virus??

Stop watching CNN already. You've been duped.

[duenor]

Duenor's response...

Kind of pointless to continue the discussion because you are waving evidence that is rather irrelevant to the topic and point. But, all right.

Sweden has changed its practices because it is experience daily cases 3-4x greater than it has ever had. This is in sharp contrast to those like Ron Paul who sought to popularize the idea that Sweden managed to achieve herd immunity by "taking it on the chin" to the tune of about 6,000 dead (as opposed to its neighboring countries whose combined deaths are <500 IIRC). In short, it has conceded that its largely "advice only" strategy is not working.

You then responded by saying "look, the deaths Sweden has during the summer into October is the same as it usually is!" And then added "they don't seem to be doing any worse than most other countries that have imposed the restrictions you promote - France, the UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy."

1. Deaths during weeks 27-42 have no bearing on why Sweden is changing its course. It's daily new cases count of 7K+ is. Given the explosive rate of transmission, that deaths chart you cited is going to look a whole lot different by January.

2. They HAVE done significantly worse. 6500 dead, which is several times more than Sweden's bordering and most generalizable nations combined. I notice that you chose a few nations and then tried to say that I promoted them. That's both confirmation bias and straw man, all in one. You chose non-generalizable nations with the worst responses and outbreaks, then distorted my argument to fit it.