It's official: WuFlu to be about the same as a bad flu season

[freedom-lover]

there is going to be a whole cohort of people decrying the measure as too far. They will also push for restarting everything ASAP,

Damn right. It is just the flu and the police state needs to end and businesses need to get going. If you are afraid, stay home.

[Inoxmark]

The original fatalities estimate was 80,000, as evidenced by this discussion here 10 days ago:

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?t=1599392

3-4 days later they revised the estimate upward, now they revised again, down, closer to the original number.

[jglabe]

Just revised downward again. Now estimating 60,415 total. With peak deaths occurring on April 12 at 2212 deaths per day.

[tsmithson]

Still hoping for a real pandemic?

We have the drugs to stop this now. The few remaining #resist politicians will be brushed aside like cobwebs, nation to be healthy and back at work soon.

#maga

[sd_shooter]

Here in the USA we don't GAS about what happens in other countries - they take care of their own.

Even in NY your leftie friend Cuomo says there's plenty of room:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/07/ihme-model-claims-hospital-bed-shortage-in-ny-cuomo-says-we-have-more-than-enough/

You're blinded by something, either you believe the MSM or possibly it's your own preconceptions. You can lie to me but don't lie to yourself

[sd_shooter]

The crappy IHME 'model' finally gets real. No cause for panic which most of use knew all along.

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/08/ihme-model-lowers-u-s-coronavirus-death-projections-by-25-to-60415/

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections for coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by 25 percent from 81,766 to 60,415 early Wednesday morning.

The IHME model has come under withering criticism for vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed, but its death projections to date have closely tracked with actual data.

That's it, I'm going to work! (actually not, company is extremely liberal and likely won't let anyone back until fascist Dr Fauci gives the all-clear)

Anyway, this is now _less_ than a bad flu season (80k deaths.)

[FireCloud9]

Anyway, this is now _less_ than a bad flu season (80k deaths.)

We won't know that until we have a full year of Covid-19 in the record books.

I noticed that you've switched to the upper bound of the flu number from your previous comments on other threads. Good move!

It'll happen. So this covid is not the flu and some reaction was warranted, but Dr Fauci has done his share to stoke the panic. A bad flu year kills 60-80k people in the USA alone. We're now around 10k with the covid.

1. The flu number above is an annual number (or average, range, etc. of annualized numbers).

C19 has been around ~100 days. We don't have annual data yet.

In order to properly compare the flu numbers to C19 numbers you need the same period of time - in this case, 1 year.

Additionally, a true flu to C19 comparison would not include the precautions taken.

2. The C19 number is with:

- Stay at Home orders
- N95, masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. as widespread precautions.

[DrjonesUSA]

We won't know that until we have a full year of Covid-19 in the record books.

I noticed that you've switched to the upper bound of the flu number from your previous comments on other threads. Good move!



1. The flu number above is an annual number (or average, range, etc. of annualized numbers).

C19 has been around ~100 days. We don't have annual data yet.

In order to properly compare the flu numbers to C19 numbers you need the same period of time - in this case, 1 year.

Additionally, a true flu to C19 comparison would not include the precautions taken.

2. The C19 number is with:

- Stay at Home orders
- N95, masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. as widespread precautions.

I agree with this. You can't compare flu numbers - a virus that's ben around for over a century - with this new strain, which has only been in the world for a few months.

However, the models were still wrong by a criminal amount.....

[The War Wagon]

[bagman]

Hasn't Fauci made claims for a wide range of predictions?

Coy little weasel makes so many claims that one ends up being right. He keeps his job and continues to roll in pharma bucks.

[bagman]

Just revised downward again. Now estimating 60,415 total. With peak deaths occurring on April 12 at 2212 deaths per day.

US may have to endure social distancing until 2022 if no vaccine is quickly found, scientists predict

CNN-This may be the new normal for quite a while.

The US may have to endure social distancing measures -- such as stay-at-home orders and school closures -- until 2022, researchers projected on Tuesday. That is, unless, a vaccine becomes quickly available.

Media would love to stretch this out until then.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/social-distancing-research-coronavirus-2022-trnd/index.html

[joepamjohn]

Hopefully this will also highlight the US's dependency on cheap chinese goods.

Let's bring manufacturing home.

[joepamjohn]

Media would love to stretch this out until then.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/healt...rnd/index.html

But how will we have football?

[joepamjohn]

US government needs to treat sectors of manufacturing, material resources, and logistics capability as part of the national defense. we are not the same industrialized country that powered the US through WWII.

When the country you get 90% of your goods imported from starts a pandemic and then looses all of its work force for about 2 months, where nothing is being made and exported you are pretty much screwed. We would be speaking German or Japanese right now if we had the same conditions during WW2.

[Transient]

Tomorrow at 2pm eastern time will be telling. Virginia's governor is expected to extended the closures of nonessential businesses. The current order from King Northam is set to expire June 10th.

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