It's official: WuFlu to be about the same as a bad flu season

[sd_shooter]

Straight from the wildly pessimistic IHME model

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/06/ihme-model-lowers-u-s-coronavirus-death-projections/

On Monday the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections of coronavirus deaths in the United States by August 4 to 81,776, down more than ten percent from the 93,765 projected on April 1, as Breitbart News reported on Wednesday.

Before y'all get all wound up:
- Yes, we should still 'social distance'
- Yes, it's still a new virus
- No, there's no vaccine

Is it because the lockdowns worked? Don't know - but it's time for America to get back to work

[CiaoKing]

It's official: WuFlu to be about the same as a bad flu season

Straight from the wildly pessimistic IHME model

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/06/ihme-model-lowers-u-s-coronavirus-death-projections/

Before y'all get all wound up:
- Yes, we should still 'social distance'
- Yes, it's still a new virus
- No, there's no vaccine

Even Dr. Fauci saw this and made this claim, ahead of time:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Is it because the lockdowns worked? Don't know - but it's time for America to get back to work

Not until you can

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/05/bill_gates_things_wont_get_back_to_normal_until_we_have_got_a_vaccine.html

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jglabe]

Straight from the wildly pessimistic IHME model

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/06/ihme-model-lowers-u-s-coronavirus-death-projections/

Before y'all get all wound up:
- Yes, we should still 'social distance'
- Yes, it's still a new virus
- No, there's no vaccine

Is it because the lockdowns worked? Don't know - but it's time for America to get back to work

[five.five-six]

Is it because the lockdowns worked? Don't know - but it's time for America to get back to work

Ok, but do I still get my free $1,200 that I pay for?

[SWalt]

Wait wait wait........you mean to tell me they adjust models?

Anyone wanna bet the model will be 100% accurate when all is said and done?

[bootstrap]

Hasn't Fauci made claims for a wide range of predictions?

Coy little weasel makes so many claims that one ends up being right. He keeps his job and continues to roll in pharma bucks.

[SW1917]

Isn't this the group of modelers that everyone was carping on - ?????

[sakosf]

They don't really know.....time will tell

[skirunman]

As discussed before, all models are flawed.

The problem is most of the models that seem to have been used to set public policy look like they were predicting worst case scenarios. Therefore, we may have ended up causing more harm than necessary to our economy versus a more nuanced approach. Anyway, this is water under the bridge. I do hope we come out with new guidelines by next week that does allow most of the economy to get back at it. Key to this would be data on the actual number of truly infected based on a randomized sample population study using the new antibody tests. These studies are underway.

IHME is continuing to refine this model, but based on trend data I'm seeing I believe their average is more likely a worst case and their best case will likely be closer to what they are modeling as best case (95% confidence interval) numbers. Here are the changes they made to the IHME model.

My current SWAG (scientific wild azz guess) is 30k-50k US deaths and 1k-1.5k CA deaths by June. Basically like a normal flu year. It will be interesting to see what the net number of increased deaths from flu+Covid-19 versus the flu alone end up at for 2020.

[jarhead714]

All this event will show us is that we need new hospitals built and fully supplied and then we need to let them sit empty until we need them. Perfect business model.

[SAN compnerd]

All this event will show us is that we need new hospitals built and fully supplied and then we need to let them sit empty until we need them. Perfect business model.

The reality is not really far off, Governors need to stop reducing hospital beds to save costs. Both NY and CA have closed a significant amount of beds in the last decade.

[theLBC]

The reality is not really far off, Governors need to stop reducing hospital beds to save costs. Both NY and CA have closed a significant amount of beds in the last decade.

i heard many closed because they couldn't stay solvent under the ACA.
don't know how much of that is true.

[small hole shooter]

Thanks for the info.

[Hoooper]

The reality is not really far off, Governors need to stop reducing hospital beds to save costs. Both NY and CA have closed a significant amount of beds in the last decade.

Since when do governors set the number of beds in hospitals?

[SW1917]

Not in Italy- we need to keep the perspective