Ideas about enlisting other states to put pressure on CA

[dantodd]

Republicans don't want to spend money in CA because no matter how much they send they'll never get the electoral votes. Democrats won't spend money because they don't need to, they'll already get the votes.

[meaty-btz]

The trend is toward CA getting less and less Federal dollars back. http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/22685.html

On these sorts of macro calculations, the data isn't going to change quickly. I'd say that the onus to disagree with Bill's statement and my evidence is on you and simply saying that it's not 2010 data isn't evidence.

-Gene

Hence why I bothered to start googling for more recent data. Some numbers I would never expect to change though, namely Appalachia and the south. Sometimes I think those regions will be tragically impoverished for all time.

Looking at the Arizona Data for the aggregate period when the Economy had a setback the ratio was not so extreme. During peak times the ratio shifted again to be higher. If that trend were to continue to today it could be very different. Also could be worse. The data is wounded into irrelevance not because it does not track over a long period but because it does not track through periods of significant shift. Dot-Com and Tech Busts were mousefarts next to what we have right now but they do show trends in the data we do have of improving ratios during downturns and worse ratios during peak times. How that impacts the numbers I suppose would be more based on 07-current unemployment numbers by state.

Nevada is interesting because it is getting killed, only 65 cents on the dollar in '05. DC is mind-boggling, Five dollars spent for every dollar taken in. Also the data while mostly supporting your position does not give it complete accuracy. The data shows that strong Red States can have big shifts over the time period. Taken in a vacuum they give you the answer you have come to. However Deep Southern Poverty and Appalachia Poverty are more to cause for their ratios than Blue/Red. So we see that :
-1 Big Shifts are Possible (.20+/- or more over a 5 year period in some cases) Shifts in the right direction of this magnitude could put Red States into being closer or being - vs the Blue States like California could shift into the taking in more than exporting. That makes recent data all the more important to track any major shifts caused by the economic upheaval.
-2 The numbers are not purely political, but largely give insight onto certain endemic conditions of certain states that needs to be addressed. Southern Poverty and Appalachian Poverty for example. Dumping money into those areas and their member states is obviously not having the desired effect.
-3 Oregon and Washington both could do better but do at least have some industry.
-4 Nevada needs to get its money worth! That just isn't right.

**EDIT**

Thanks for the find Gene, you are the man. Where the hell is this tax base in California that the fed are tapping? We need to tap it to feed the state first.

Looks like Nevada is still getting it as bad if not worse than us. What is up with New Mexico? Georgia is an interesting blip. Not what I would have expected from them. I have to give this round to Gene and Bill. However the data tells a very big story. A ton more than just who pays for who. If I was a Californian Politician I would be looking hard at tapping that pool of money that is being used to feed the feds. Could stabilize the budget ( hehe or drive that money elsewhere!). I see growth in the south in one select State that must be doing SOMETHING RIGHT. Might be something to share with the other red states.

Thanks for the good read Gene.

[Window_Seat]

I have a better solution.

Erik.

[bwiese]

Meaty_btz,

Sorry, you're just wrong. Most of the people moving out of CA are the ones that can't hack it. The businesses moving out are Joe's Brake Shop or Carl's Jr not opening another store (fine with me), etc. - not Apple, Genentech, Cisco, etc.

Bottom line, the gross regional product of the greater SF Bay Area *alone* pays for the overhead of a whole buncha red states.

They can come kiss our arse for their welfare - because that's what it is if they aren't producing as much as they're taking.

Those states have older smaller populations, and a higher percentage of ''drainers' compared to the goods/services produced by that state. And they don't have the accumulated brainpower/skill set to catch up. We might farm some toll-free 800# tech support out to them because they speak English better than the folks in India.

And CA farming industry does not get much of the huge farm subsidies that midwest gets.

The normed per-capita Gross State Product [after compensating for Fed pay in or pay out] coming out of CA is just much higher.

For all our problems - big gov't overhead, illegals, etc. - we still do well in spite of ourselves.

And California businesses of high worth won't move to, say, Wyoming or UT or MT - they'll either stay in CA or relocate certain operations out of USA.

[Dreaded Claymore]

Oh yes, also need to play the Race Card.

[bwiese]

The maps that Gene posted also show why the TP will have relatively little long-term traction - because if cuts are to be made, they'll take the biggest hits given they get so much money from Big G (combined from various sources).

Eric Cantor in VA, for all his big talk, has lotsa folks getting got money there.

When those voting "TP" find their farm subsidies and fed jobs cut they'll be less sanguine about their stances - or shift the dicussion to 'welfare queens' (I believe we probably pay out around the same if not more in salary + pension costs to the HHS administrators and staff, etc. than we actually deliver in welfare to poor people.)

[Anchors]

Meaty_btz,

Sorry, you're just wrong. Most of the people moving out of CA are the ones that can't hack it. The businesses moving out are Joe's Brake Shop or Carl's Jr not opening another store (fine with me), etc. - not Apple, Genentech, Cisco, etc.

[Schrodinger's Cat]

I seem to recall certain politicians in CA organizing official AZ boycotts over politics not too long ago. Why wouldn't they want to return the favor?

[johnny_22]

California has great R&D tax credits. You are correct that Intel will never build another foundry here, but, with TSMC and Chartered with excess capacity, why build any foundry?

[wash]

Let me guess: Intel closed a fab here.

Not a big surprise. That's what you do with obsolete fabs.

I would be surprised if anyone built a modern fab in the U.S. these days. Our government has pushed all that business to Asia.

I'm sure most of the other examples you list have similar reasons for leaving.

[bwiese]

I have to take issue with this part.
Sorry, you're just wrong on this one Bill.

Here is a partial list of companies that have left, are shifting some operations out of CA, or have chosen to create new installations outside of California where they are from (which is obviously more logistically complicated, so there must be a good reason).

Actually Apple has expanded in other states. They built a $1 billion facility in North Carolina as opposed in their home state.
Boeing has all but completely left (I know someone that works there).
Audix
Cessna Aircraft
Denny's Corporation (yes, Denny's).
Carl's JR HEADQUARTERS, not just a single location. Plus, even if you don't like the food you should want the business.
DuPont
Ebay and Paypal
Facebook
FedEx closed a facility here.
Fujitsu FronTech North America
Hershey's
IBM
Intel (spent $11 billion in other states, closed plant in CA and said it will never build another here).
J.C. Penney
LegalZoom.com (moving to Texas over tax dispute with City of L.A.)
McAfee, Inc. (acknowledged that it intentionally avoids hiring in high-cost, high-tax California. Transferred entire departments elsewhere and saves about 30 to 40% every time the company hires outside of the state. Texas is one of the locations to which McAfee has moved.)
Nissan North American moved its entire HQ to Nashville from L.A.
Northrop Grumman Fourth largest Aero/defense company in the world. by 2011 will relocate its Los Angeles H.Q. to the Washington, DC metro area. It’s the last major aerospace company to leave Southern California, the birthplace of the aerospace industry.
Novellus Inc (based on budget crisis and policies).
Precor (one of the largest manufactures of fitness machines).
U.S Airways closing maintenance station at John Wayne, CA no longer part of its "core".
US Press shifted work from Los Angeles and San Diego to Portland, “where union rules were almost rational.”
Yahoo opened a data center in Quincy, Washington, a community that now hopes to land high-tech manufacturing.
EIG Global Energy Partners separated from parent company and moved to WA.
Tickets.com shutting down CA operations and moving to TX.
Wells Fargo cut some jobs and shifted them to India. All jobs cut were California.

Also, Amazon.com isn't really happy right now either. They're pretty big.

You can look these up all day. Not all these major ones have "up and left" (many have), but you can definitely see the trending towards leaving. And many are open and public about their dislike of California law and politicians.

Certain day-labor aspects are leaving, yes. New product creation etc is staying and growing.

The Apple operation you wrote of is a support operation, not new product creation. Apple is creating a hUGE
new headquarters in Cupertino, and development jobs are increasing.

Intel still (and will continue to) designs chips here. Yeah, CA drove the fabs out with toxics laws and capital equipment tax.

Core operations are generally staying here, except for labor-intensive manufacturing.

Amazon 'affiliates' are being disassociated. Amazon warehouses were never in CA anyway and they're outside of Reno (at least for West coast stuff). However their Kindle, etc. developement arm, "Lab126" is in Silicon Valley and is hiring.

Again, there's a difference between high value and low value operations and revenue-per-employee thresholds.

Nobody gives much of a crap that Denny's is leaving - their food sucks so bad and Californians probably have better palates.

And it may be good for some other states to actually get some goods & services being produced so they aren't on so much welfare

[Connor P Price]

Ryan and Bill, I think your actually both right here. High income high net worth jobs are still growing in CA and aren't likely to go anywhere because wealthy silicon valley types like the weather. More lower income jobs are leaving at the same time creating a net loss in the number of jobs.

That doesn't sound sustainable to me.

[bwiese]

Ryan and Bill, I think your actually both right here. High income high net worth jobs are still growing in CA and aren't likely to go anywhere because wealthy silicon valley types like the weather. More lower income jobs are leaving at the same time creating a net loss in the number of jobs.

That doesn't sound sustainable to me.

With people wanting to stay stupid, not learn things, keep doing the same ol' thing, yes. We don't need any more fast foood clerks.

On the other hand if we can cut our paying welfare to the red states, we'll do OK.

If we can actually shed some of our poor to other states, that will be helpful too.

[berto]

Most legislators don't care about 2A issues beyond voting the way their party leaders want them to vote. A letter from an out of state legislator on the illogic of CA law will result in nothing beyond the time wasted to write and send the letter.

[Drivedabizness]

We could lose Intel (think Folsom) and 5k+ jobs very easily