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[SG29736]

My guess, FS will end up having new owners. They will be anti-gun liberals and turn the location into a gay resort.

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So. No changes then.

[beanz2]

New owners? Someone and/or some group would like to own FS? With all the liabilities? And the expectation of minimal to zero costs from students?

_

If this were to happen, do the new owners have to honor FS's obligations? Assuming they want to keep it as a firearms training facility, I suppose they'd take the physical assets and would want to foster some sort of continuation of customer relationship with us.

Of course if it is some Chinese-owned solar farm, they'd want nothing to do with us. The farther we stay away, the better for them.

[-hanko]

My guess, FS will end up having new owners. They will be anti-gun liberals and turn the location into a gay resort.

NO comment as to the result on Calguns.

[Citizen_B]

If this were to happen, do the new owners have to honor FS's obligations? Assuming they want to keep it as a firearms training facility, I suppose they'd take the physical assets and would want to foster some sort of continuation of customer relationship with us.

I suppose it would depend on the terms of the bankruptcy, but generally, a company goes bankrupt exactly because their liabilities make the business insolvent, so are wiped clean. New owners would not have to honor old obligations. Clearly if the new owners wanted to continue the existing business in a sustainable way, it would be prudent to try and retain existing members/customers. If all that was the case, I'd guess there would be a new pricing structure with some form of discount to existing members.

[Supersapper]

New owners? Someone and/or some group would like to own FS? With all the liabilities? And the expectation of minimal to zero costs from students?

_

If it's fully BK'd, AND Dr. P is fully removed, then the liabilities are likely minimized, depending on the terms of the BK. Running FS using a decent business model, would likely ensure success and if the new owners were to throw a bone to the "loyalists", I think it could work.

[rodralig]

If it's fully BK'd, AND Dr. P is fully removed, then the liabilities are likely minimized, depending on the terms of the BK. Running FS using a decent business model, would likely ensure success and if the new owners were to throw a bone to the "loyalists", I think it could work.

What is a decent business model?

The business model will depend on the pricing structure. If I overlay with either Thunder Ranch or Gunsite - do you think FS will work with, say, a $2000 or even a $1000 fee for a 4-day training? The loyalists are already barking at $300 for a 4-day... Do you think the new owners can make FS work with only $300 per student per 4-days?


Just going with the math (yeah, even the math didn't make sense before).

_

[Citizen_B]

Do you think the new owners can make FS work with only $300 per student per 4-days?

I think FS can work with way less than $300 a course. There are other untapped sources of revenue that for the life of me hasn't been done yet. Sell decent ammo at a decent price and people will buy it on site. Have decent food at a decent price on site. Expand the kids programs so parents can train while the kids play, but charge extra for it. Offer private training at a premium. I have a whole list of items that seem like great ideas to me, but I don't know much.

[beanz2]

I think FS can work with way less than $300 a course. There are other untapped sources of revenue that for the life of me hasn't been done yet. Sell decent ammo at a decent price and people will buy it on site. Have decent food at a decent price on site. Expand the kids programs so parents can train while the kids play, but charge extra for it. Offer private training at a premium. I have a whole list of items that seem like great ideas to me, but I don't know much.

[Mustard]

I recommended coin-operated showers after my first class there back in 2018. $5 for 10 minutes would make a 3 hour drive back to CA wayyyyyyy better. As it stands now I just give myself the baby-wipe treatment in the bathroom.

[Supersapper]

What is a decent business model?

The business model will depend on the pricing structure. If I overlay with either Thunder Ranch or Gunsite - do you think FS will work with, say, a $2000 or even a $1000 fee for a 4-day training? The loyalists are already barking at $300 for a 4-day... Do you think the new owners can make FS work with only $300 per student per 4-days?


Just going with the math (yeah, even the math didn't make sense before).

_

My math says $150 per year for every membership should about do it if all 200K+ paid it and stopped whining about the unsustainable freebie everything BS that they know down in their hearts is redonculous.

[w00dmaster]

No one but the new owners can estimate what they need to charge to make it work. They and they alone are the only ones who know what the fixed cost will be and the interest on the loan will be to purchase it.

[Supersapper]

No one but the new owners can estimate what they need to charge to make it work. They and they alone are the only ones who know what the fixed cost will be and the interest on the loan will be to purchase it.

This is true, but a good estimate is what it cost to operate immediately prior to the take over. Now, to be sure, you have to include what the paymnets are that Naish should have been making all along. That is a good starting point for it. Plus...the math builds in a bit of extra.

[w00dmaster]

One huge variable is how many people will actually spend $300 a day or even a course. People talk a lot but really what they do is different. The simple reason Pizza has such a huge membership is he is free or close to it for the most part. I go to the other places mostly Gun site and they laugh at him. A grocery store that says we out sell every one else but sells at a loss is a joke. FS is a ponzi scheme and cannot operate unless they have new fools money. So no one really knows if they can exist at all ever. The property taxes alone must be huge then add in fixed costs and then employees who knows? I know that I was told many times by employees that they wait some time weeks for checks and thats with the revenue streams from the Ponzi scheme imaging if that was gone? No one can even guess the over head FS has and speculations are just foolish. If this was real profitable Pizza would have gotten rid of it by now. I have looked at a few businesses for sale that simply would not work with a new owner and new financing. I think FS is such a business. A fire sale at a bankruptcy is the only possible out come IMHO.

[Supersapper]

One huge variable is how many people will actually spend $300 a day or even a course. People talk a lot but really what they do is different. The simple reason Pizza has such a huge membership is he is free or close to it for the most part. I go to the other places mostly Gun site and they laugh at him. A grocery store that says we out sell every one else but sells at a loss is a joke. FS is a ponzi scheme and cannot operate unless they have new fools money. So no one really knows if they can exist at all ever. The property taxes alone must be huge then add in fixed costs and then employees who knows? I know that I was told many times by employees that they wait some time weeks for checks and thats with the revenue streams from the Ponzi scheme imaging if that was gone? No one can even guess the over head FS has and speculations are just foolish. If this was real profitable Pizza would have gotten rid of it by now. I have looked at a few businesses for sale that simply would not work with a new owner and new financing. I think FS is such a business. A fire sale at a bankruptcy is the only possible out come IMHO.

Hang on...I'm talking about a new schema of things. First, no more Piazza.
Second, $150 per membership per year no matter what, even if you do not go that year. When you go, we can institute a $25/day range fee that everyone pays no matter what. When you sign up, you sign a waiver that states you have your own medical insurance sufficient to cover the expenses should you be injured or, heaven forbid, shot while on the premises. Basically, you absolve FS from ANY injury that is not a direct result of the training plan of FS; IE if some clown's gun blows up because of a squib load and he gets injured, FS is not responsible. If someone ELSE is injured as a result of that squib load, that's NOT FS's problem. After all, you should have insurance to cover injuries.

To my original point:
$150/year x 270,000 memberships = $40,500,000/year

Let's say that of the 270,000, Dr. P is correct and that only 91,000 actually contributed money and would contribute to this in the absence of any other payment scheme:
$150/year x 91,000 paying memberships = $13,650,000/year

Using these as the upper and lower limits, what are FS's actual operating costs? $10,000,000? $15,000,000? per year?

No other scheme and everyone covers the $150 no matter what. Other than that, everything can remain largely as it is and new members maybe pay $35/day as a range fee. A reward, if you will, to the legacy holders. That would only make it $141 for a 4 day training class.

Problem is that everyone's hung up on the $300 or so per day. My math on it works out like this:
$100 for class ($25/day at 4 days )
$0.82 for membership fee ($150 per year/ 365 days per year = about 42 cents)

Moreover, there are a lot of people hung up on the freebies that Naish promised, knowing that FS can't operate with that. they rather get nothing and drag it all away from everyone, instead of working as part of the solution. Those people are the ones I don't like.

In any event, total is about $101 for a 4 day class. Where else are you going to get firearms training for that amount? Even if it is NOT 100% modern, up to the minute industry standard, it's a bloody sight better than what you have if you have no training at all.

Here in San Diego, the 8 hour CCW training is $200-$250 and they do not cover at all what FS does, so I know it's a deal.

[VolvoWrench]

^^^ Agree. That's basically what I came up with. Annual fee whether you go or, not and reasonable daily fee for each day of class.