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[Citizen_B]

One huge variable is how many people will actually spend $300 a day or even a course.

I suspect hardly anyone will spend $300/day for an FS course, and no-one is advocating for that. Stop (continually) trying to straw man reasonable discussions to push your opinion.

I go to the other places mostly Gun site and they laugh at him.

I also go to other places and they mostly keep their critical thoughts about other schools to themselves because 1) they understand difference schools do different things, and 2) they worry more about making their own training program better than trying to denigrate someone else's.

FS is a ponzi scheme and cannot operate unless they have new fools money. So no one really knows if they can exist at all ever. The property taxes alone must be huge then add in fixed costs and then employees who knows? I know that I was told many times by employees that they wait some time weeks for checks and thats with the revenue streams from the Ponzi scheme imaging if that was gone? No one can even guess the over head FS has and speculations are just foolish. If this was real profitable Pizza would have gotten rid of it by now. I have looked at a few businesses for sale that simply would not work with a new owner and new financing. I think FS is such a business. A fire sale at a bankruptcy is the only possible out come IMHO.

So you start with saying you have no idea what FS's operating expenses are then conclude a fire sale is the only possible outcome. My man, that just speaks for itself.

[Citizen_B]

Annual fee whether you go or, not and reasonable daily fee for each day of class.

That's basically the classic business model applicable to a business like FS. I'd add a third revenue source:

1) Annual membership fee. This keeps a baseline revenue source in place and encourages attendance. This can't be too expensive or risk alienating customers. The goal to keep a line of engagement and recoup some holding cost for the ability to take a course anytime on short notice.

2) Daily/course fee. This covers the bulk of operating costs and regulates free riders from taking unfair advantage of "free" courses.

3) Complimentary revenue from side sales. This would be things like onsite ammo/food/gear/rentals/etc. Keep the prices reasonable and the onsite convenience gives it the sales edge. This also adds to the ambiance of a simple/easy training experience.

The advantage FS has is its huge volume and operating basically in one of the cheapest locations possible. Per student operating costs are surely only a small fraction of what other schools carry. If FS loses its volume, a workable business model will be difficult/impossible without some kind of niche specialization that can outcompete all the other established schools out there.

[w00dmaster]

Ok I guess you got it all figured out, My point is no one has 90k members except PIZZA with his free courses? Your assuming that 90k will pay that? Try going to a bank with assumptions? PIZZa has no record of people paying any figure with out the ponzi scheme dangling with all its freebees. Take the freebees and selling your membership freebees away I do not think you will see those kind of numbers. I do not think a bank will either. And if its the buyers money they will be even more conservative main reason is FS has a terrible reputation right now!

[CheapBloke]

Ok I guess you got it all figured out, My point is no one has 90k members except PIZZA with his free courses? Your assuming that 90k will pay that? Try going to a bank with assumptions? PIZZa has no record of people paying any figure with out the ponzi scheme dangling with all its freebees. Take the freebees and selling your membership freebees away I do not think you will see those kind of numbers. I do not think a bank will either. And if its the buyers money they will be even more conservative main reason is FS has a terrible reputation right now!

If he only got those 90k members to pay $300. He'd be 27mil rich.

But average membership costs like 3k right?


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[Supersapper]

That's basically the classic business model applicable to a business like FS. I'd add a third revenue source:

1) Annual membership fee. This keeps a baseline revenue source in place and encourages attendance. This can't be too expensive or risk alienating customers. The goal to keep a line of engagement and recoup some holding cost for the ability to take a course anytime on short notice.

2) Daily/course fee. This covers the bulk of operating costs and regulates free riders from taking unfair advantage of "free" courses.

3) Complimentary revenue from side sales. This would be things like onsite ammo/food/gear/rentals/etc. Keep the prices reasonable and the onsite convenience gives it the sales edge. This also adds to the ambiance of a simple/easy training experience.

The advantage FS has is its huge volume and operating basically in one of the cheapest locations possible. Per student operating costs are surely only a small fraction of what other schools carry. If FS loses its volume, a workable business model will be difficult/impossible without some kind of niche specialization that can outcompete all the other established schools out there.

I think I mentioned this in the first series of suggestions I made on it. Make the pro shop an actual pro shop again and sell items that are relevant to the courses and maybe get some cool items in stock. How many of us have gone to a place like FS, traveled hours and hours, only to realize you forgot the mag pouch? Perhaps you'd like to pick up a bunch of FS targets for practice? Perhaps upgrade the trigger in the XD or the Glock? Purchase it and have the armorer install on sight.

At one point I suggested a contract with a couple of good gut trucks. People will pay good money for good food and FS gets a just and equitable cut of the sales.

Bring it back to what it was and I think it will provide a decent 3rd source of income.

[NorthBay Shooter]

I think you could swag the number necessary to break even for FS. Does anyone know the actual number of employees? We don't know how much debt FS is actually carrying, but not sure they could really lien the property any more based on the assessors records. I was surprised at the numbers, but I live and CA where prices are crazy. For example, the property tax on both parcels, the original development and the new development APN 045-481-05 & 045-481-06, is only 26k per year. The assessed value is only 4.5M.

You could figure you need a RM for any range along with 3-5 instructors based on the size of the class. Looking at March, there was 51 class days scheduled. There are 31 different classes offered. Since we believe that no one is working full time (to limit benefits), that is maybe 10 RMs and 25 instructors? Add in the support folks, pro shop, ammo bunker, check-in, etc, that's another 20 people? So guess 60 people on the high side? Say it averages to 40k per year each, that's 2.4M. We could continue ?

[w00dmaster]

I am just saying there is no track record of FS having steady paying customers except in the beginning. After that it was a Ponzi scheme. This will not fly when presented to a bank or investors now especially that the reputation is totally burned. If you guys are so confident then you guys get together and buy it! right now major banks will not even borrow money to anything that has to do with guns have you been reading the papers. All I hear is how every one has used their membership enough that it free now. Well when its not free we will see if people will step up and pay and how much. I have pitched businesses to banks it is not easy they want to see a can't lose proforma balance sheet in the proposal. His membership right now is cheap people who wanted and got a freebee and the banks will see that too.

[eaglemike]

I think you could swag the number necessary to break even for FS. Does anyone know the actual number of employees? We don't know how much debt FS is actually carrying, but not sure they could really lien the property any more based on the assessors records. I was surprised at the numbers, but I live and CA where prices are crazy. For example, the property tax on both parcels, the original development and the new development APN 045-481-05 & 045-481-06, is only 26k per year. The assessed value is only 4.5M.

You could figure you need a RM for any range along with 3-5 instructors based on the size of the class. Looking at March, there was 51 class days scheduled. There are 31 different classes offered. Since we believe that no one is working full time (to limit benefits), that is maybe 10 RMs and 25 instructors? Add in the support folks, pro shop, ammo bunker, check-in, etc, that's another 20 people? So guess 60 people on the high side? Say it averages to 40k per year each, that's 2.4M. We could continue ?

The numbers look pretty reasonable. I've heard in the past that Naish chose to just 1099 the instructors. If they are doing legitimate payroll the numbers for payroll would be somewhat higher.

[Mustard]

I've heard in the past that Naish chose to just 1099 the instructors. If they are doing legitimate payroll the numbers for payroll would be somewhat higher.

What do you mean "1099 the instructors"?

[Doctor_Chicago]

What do you mean "1099 the instructors"?

It has to do with Contract Employees or Independent Contractors vs. W-2 Employees ( Regular Employees).

[NorthBay Shooter]

If they 1099 people than the payroll burden is much less. However there are going to be some actual W2 employee's. They can be part time to limit the actual benefits, PTO, health insurance, etc., but the payroll tax would be there. I imagine from a corporate point of view, they are posting a loss every year so there is no federal tax other the min, the real question to any investor, is what is the value of the non-burdened assets. I think most investors would be hard pressed to buy the "business" because of the lack of predictable recurring revenue. If FS didn't run the email of the month offer, what would be the actual revenue. I.E., the revenue from the ammo bunker, or Pro Shop or food sales. I would also include what ever kickback they get from the local hotel / motels for sending students there. It's really what is the value of the land and buildings. According to Nye county, it's 4.5M. So maybe you double that and say the place is worth 9M give or take.

The challenge would be, unless they go BK, Dr. P is going say the place is worth 50M or more.

[Doctor_Chicago]

If they 1099 people than the payroll burden is much less. However there are going to be some actual W2 employee's. They can be part time to limit the actual benefits, PTO, health insurance, etc., but the payroll tax would be there. I imagine from a corporate point of view, they are posting a loss every year so there is no federal tax other the min, the real question to any investor, is what is the value of the non-burdened assets. I think most investors would be hard pressed to buy the "business" because of the lack of predictable recurring revenue. If FS didn't run the email of the month offer, what would be the actual revenue. I.E., the revenue from the ammo bunker, or Pro Shop or food sales. I would also include what ever kickback they get from the local hotel / motels for sending students there. It's really what is the value of the land and buildings. According to Nye county, it's 4.5M. So maybe you double that and say the place is worth 9M give or take.

The challenge would be, unless they go BK, Dr. P is going say the place is worth 50M or more.

There is a Contingent Plan being worked up as to various scenarios which I am not at Liberty to discuss in an Open Forum. There are a couple of profitable scenarios and beneficial to different type of investors, which I can't discuss right now.

[eaglemike]

It has to do with Contract Employees or Independent Contractors vs. W-2 Employees ( Regular Employees).

In Ca they would not be able to just 1099. Big trouble. I own a business, and had a surprise visit from EDD and Cal OSHA recently. Fortunately I run a legit payroll, taxes, unemployment insurance, SSI, etc. Stuff like the EDD and Cal-OSHA (how they do things) are a large part of the reason businesses leave Ca. I don't think F/S could exist at this time in Ca. Shooters can be really really cheap too.

[Supersapper]

I think you could swag the number necessary to break even for FS. Does anyone know the actual number of employees? We don't know how much debt FS is actually carrying, but not sure they could really lien the property any more based on the assessors records. I was surprised at the numbers, but I live and CA where prices are crazy. For example, the property tax on both parcels, the original development and the new development APN 045-481-05 & 045-481-06, is only 26k per year. The assessed value is only 4.5M.

You could figure you need a RM for any range along with 3-5 instructors based on the size of the class. Looking at March, there was 51 class days scheduled. There are 31 different classes offered. Since we believe that no one is working full time (to limit benefits), that is maybe 10 RMs and 25 instructors? Add in the support folks, pro shop, ammo bunker, check-in, etc, that's another 20 people? So guess 60 people on the high side? Say it averages to 40k per year each, that's 2.4M. We could continue ?

My only issue with the $40K each is that it assumes they are making more money than I think they are making. But let's go with that.

Presume also that utilities are at about $250,000 per year for water and an equal amount for power. That's another $500,000. Now we're up to $2.9M.

Assume the assessed value is HALF what he actually paid for it (my house is worth a ton more than what I paid for it). The mortgage might be about $500 per $100,000, so that means 500 x 90 = $45,000 per month x 12 months = $540,000 per year mortgage payments.

Now we're up to about $3.5M. Add to this about $200,000 in maintenance costs (targets, plumbing, infrastructure like buildings and tents), now we're up to $3.7M, Add $1M because there's something I'm missing or just do not know what **** I'm talking about, now we're up to $4.7M

The $150 I was mentioning, at the lowest participation is $13,500,000. This would be a net gain of about $9M dollars. This does not include any side hustles (ProShop, Catering truck revenue) and mentions ZERO about range fees. Put it in a foundation, managed properly, and after about 5 years, FS would, in fact, be largely free and as long as you stay away from the stupid leveling up that was done for so long, it would be what it should have been.

[VolvoWrench]

I vote Supersapper the new CEO of Front Sight.