15 min- SHTF

[splithoof]

You do realize that in a real SHTF it is a 90% causality rate.

How exactly did you arrive at that figure of 90%?

[Duck Killer]

How exactly did you arrive at that figure of 90%?

The government has done research on it. Loss of power/utilities for one year is a 90% mortality rate. I believe it was actually 6-9 months

Mainly it is the lack of clean water and sanitation that will lead to disease. The higher the population the quicker the death rate will be. A majority of the casualties will be in the first few months.

[splithoof]

The government has done research on it. Loss of power/utilities for one year is a 90% mortality rate. I believe it was actually 6-9 months

Mainly it is the lack of clean water and sanitation that will lead to disease. The higher the population the quicker the death rate will be. A majority of the casualties will be in the first few months.

Thank you.
In that case, I’ll be forced to manually lock the front gates. Other than that, not much will change too drastically for us.

[acaligunner]

The government has done research on it. Loss of power/utilities for one year is a 90% mortality rate. I believe it was actually 6-9 months

Mainly it is the lack of clean water and sanitation that will lead to disease. The higher the population the quicker the death rate will be. A majority of the casualties will be in the first few months.

There’s other countries that will RX antibiotics if you deal with the pharmacist right.

Maybe that will cut down on the deaths when the stuff goes crazy.

[mikeyr]

There’s other countries that will RX antibiotics if you deal with the pharmacist right.

Maybe that will cut down on the deaths when the stuff goes crazy.

That is assuming that in a real SHTF situation the mail still works...

[acaligunner]

That is assuming that in a real SHTF situation the mail still works...

A well prepared person would already have spoken to said pharmacist and taken home what was RX’ed to whoever.

[BrokerB]

AR pistol with few hundred rounds. It either works and I can use the BLue Helmets ammo..or it doesn't and they can use mine: )

[Avocado Toast]

The idea of grabbing your bail out bag and heading into the hills to live beyond whatever crisis is here is, quite frankly, just made up chit in one's head that defies reality.

Oh it's romantic and all that squishy feel good stuff but at most, any of these "grab and go" people can't stay in the hills for more than a few days, at most. Then, it's right back into civilization.

Pick your BOB, figure your living arrangements off the grid but it's all in one's head. You're better off staying at home, by far.

[acaligunner]

^
The woods 🤔.

People in the city are going to be eating dogs and cats and rats and pigeons. Out in the woods once the deer meat runs out then what ? What about water ?

City has its own problems but the woods - I have shelter in my home structure, tunnels out in the city - oh we might get over run and or die fighting a horde - but the woods ?

Have ya ever seen Jeremiah Johnson ? He was ok but almost starved being in dem woods ..

[splithoof]

The idea of grabbing your bail out bag and heading into the hills to live beyond whatever crisis is here is, quite frankly, just made up chit in one's head that defies reality.

For the vast, vast majority that is true. You would need to be able to get to a place large enough, with its own readily available source of water and game animals, where competition from other humans was minimal. One such place that comes to mind is the outer reaches of Alaska, where you would be fighting just to sustain through a winter, let alone other folks with the same idea. Likely the most realistic option is to relocate to an area much less populated where game is close by in abundant numbers, and establish a defendable infrastructure there. You would need to be fully, 100% off-grid capable. Given that, and with ample food reserves (along with everything else) one could live quite comfortable, provided uninvited guests could be managed.

[Duck Killer]

^
The woods 🤔.

People in the city are going to be eating dogs and cats and rats and pigeons. Out in the woods once the deer meat runs out then what ? What about water ?

City has its own problems but the woods - I have shelter in my home structure, tunnels out in the city - oh we might get over run and or die fighting a horde - but the woods ?

Have ya ever seen Jeremiah Johnson ? He was ok but almost starved being in dem woods ..

If you are going to bug out to a place you don’t own or fully control you are already dead. Woods is a general term. If you mean rural you can survive quite well if you have water.

[Garbcollector]

How is ones supposed to "bug out in 15min" when you have a wife and kids and possibly animals? Then expect your family to live in the bushes for an extended period of time it's laughable at best

[Avocado Toast]

For the vast, vast majority that is true. You would need to be able to get to a place large enough, with its own readily available source of water and game animals, where competition from other humans was minimal. One such place that comes to mind is the outer reaches of Alaska, where you would be fighting just to sustain through a winter, let alone other folks with the same idea. Likely the most realistic option is to relocate to an area much less populated where game is close by in abundant numbers, and establish a defendable infrastructure there. You would need to be fully, 100% off-grid capable. Given that, and with ample food reserves (along with everything else) one could live quite comfortable, provided uninvited guests could be managed.

The most defensible space is where you live. You can harden it, to a large degree, but the cold truth is that 99% of people cannot or are unable to switch from living in their homes, having access to food through the store, electricity, medication and having plain ole TP, to losing all of that and going off the grid for forever.

This is a true story from my work:

I work with clients who have unlimited resources to hire whoever they want or need for a particular project or task. They hire high end specialized people and they are truly at the peak of what they do. In my work for them, I have access to the personnel files and I know their backgrounds.

One such person was hired for a bunch of cybersecurity work and due to certain events, I had a need to talk to him and of course, we spoke about his background as part of a general conversation. He used to work for one of the three letter agencies and it was one where you'd say, "Yes, that guy has his **** together."

We evolved the conversation to talk about SHTF scenarios since if he and his team weren't successful at his task, through no fault of his own, there very likely would be urban riots, burning and looting, after a series of cascading events that built on the outcomes of those before it.

His laughed at the idea of grabbing your BOB and whatever else you needed and heading to the hills. It's just a fantasy played out by LARPers and has no substantive chance for any true success other than calling it glorified camping. No one who lives in an urban environment can switch to living off the grid for a sustainable period of time.

His plan? Stay at home, have food, water, ammo, medications and whatever you'd normally have but in sufficient quantities for a week or two. Home is the most defensible space. What was his plan if there were bad people that came to his house to do bad things? Shoot them and let them die where shot. With a breakdown of society, even of only short period, the people who do those bad things aren't going to limit themselves to just property. Them taking life is a very real possibility that cannot be ignored.

He very adamantly said that everyone knows who lives in their own neighborhoods and who belongs and who doesn't. You can tell their intentions and if they are bad and intend to do bad to you, he'd drop them the moment they came into his front yard. He said that over time disease would be an issue but that it only takes one or two dead people in a front yard before the bad people quickly realize that isn't a place they want to be.

So how much ammo did he have for this? 1k per gun/caliber. He stressed that you aren't going on the offensive or taking the battle to the streets. You are staying in your house and keeping bad people from coming in. That requires a minimum of ammo and you to be a good shot.

He's POA was just to ride it out, monitor radio, TV or the internet and just make sure he was safe until calm and order were restored. He estimated that order would be restored in about 72 to 96 hours max. He was also in favor of helping the neighbors who were in similar situations as part of block or neighborhood assistance of like-minded people. He was the true gray man in everything he did.

[splithoof]

^^^^^^^
Ive said such all along.
The best option IMO is to create your everyday living arrangements so leaving isn’t necessary. That alone means substantial sacrifice for most folks, as the amenities of urban life are distant. Of course, if one has the financial means, they can more easily adapt to that.
Those who have means and wish to be closer to urban centers can do the same, it will take more work and planning. Seen that done here in SoCal.

[acaligunner]

The most defensible space is where you live. You can harden it, to a large degree, but the cold truth is that 99% of people cannot or are unable to switch from living in their homes, having access to food through the store, electricity, medication and having plain ole TP, to losing all of that and going off the grid for forever.

This is a true story from my work:

I work with clients who have unlimited resources to hire whoever they want or need for a particular project or task. They hire high end specialized people and they are truly at the peak of what they do. In my work for them, I have access to the personnel files and I know their backgrounds.

One such person was hired for a bunch of cybersecurity work and due to certain events, I had a need to talk to him and of course, we spoke about his background as part of a general conversation. He used to work for one of the three letter agencies and it was one where you'd say, "Yes, that guy has his **** together."

We evolved the conversation to talk about SHTF scenarios since if he and his team weren't successful at his task, through no fault of his own, there very likely would be urban riots, burning and looting, after a series of cascading events that built on the outcomes of those before it.

His laughed at the idea of grabbing your BOB and whatever else you needed and heading to the hills. It's just a fantasy played out by LARPers and has no substantive chance for any true success other than calling it glorified camping. No one who lives in an urban environment can switch to living off the grid for a sustainable period of time.

His plan? Stay at home, have food, water, ammo, medications and whatever you'd normally have but in sufficient quantities for a week or two. Home is the most defensible space. What was his plan if there were bad people that came to his house to do bad things? Shoot them and let them die where shot. With a breakdown of society, even of only short period, the people who do those bad things aren't going to limit themselves to just property. Them taking life is a very real possibility that cannot be ignored.

He very adamantly said that everyone knows who lives in their own neighborhoods and who belongs and who doesn't. You can tell their intentions and if they are bad and intend to do bad to you, he'd drop them the moment they came into his front yard. He said that over time disease would be an issue but that it only takes one or two dead people in a front yard before the bad people quickly realize that isn't a place they want to be.

So how much ammo did he have for this? 1k per gun/caliber. He stressed that you aren't going on the offensive or taking the battle to the streets. You are staying in your house and keeping bad people from coming in. That requires a minimum of ammo and you to be a good shot.

He's POA was just to ride it out, monitor radio, TV or the internet and just make sure he was safe until calm and order were restored. He estimated that order would be restored in about 72 to 96 hours max. He was also in favor of helping the neighbors who were in similar situations as part of block or neighborhood assistance of like-minded people. He was the true gray man in everything he did.

neighbors are not always a good thing, they like to blab ( about what you have and how good your living ) if this gets to the wrong folks they’ll know what and how many people you may have to defend your home.

Neighbors ( once they get wise ) may also tell whoever that you have firearms, who is living at home, how you get around.

Neighbors also suddenly believe that you will defend them and they can then squat on your land - because your the one with the gunzzz.

If really bad ( something we haven’t seen before ) real bad shtf event happens and a group of 3 armed bg’s attack the home - it’s going to be kind of iffy for one gg to out shoot those 3 armed members - is it a small chance that will happen Yes, but not unlikely .

I say bug in or go to an out of the area family members home until things look better.

Also, if these bug out people do go out over yonder into the woods - how many firearms are you going to have on you, how much ammo are you going to carry without a resupply of ammo / parts, mags ?!

What’s your source of food / water / medical aid.

But no worries - I don’t believe that an American shtf event will be as bad as what we see in Africa - unless there’s outright killings in the streets / woods ..