USA "Deaths from all causes" constant even with covid

[sd_shooter]

So we know we're being lied to on an industrial scale. Here's proof

https://politicrossing.com/the-covid-news-you-didnt-hear/

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.

Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths

Still not wearing a mask. Rip off your filthy face diaper, too.

[LBDamned]

Here it comes...

[gimebakmybulits]

Sorry but that article has not been approved by big mike..

[SoCal326]

So noone died from Covid19? Sounds legit.

[stonefly-2]

So we know we're being lied to on an industrial scale.

I doesn't seem to have gone unnoticed.

%30 fully vaccinated, %43 got one shot

(how much of that's due to the timing of the protocol as opposed to reticence to get a second is hard to say)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

[SPUTTER]

The word is out shots are bad. One of my coworkers has a nurse in the family, perfectly healthy and it made her blind.

[as_rocketman]

She doesn't appear to be analyzing the data properly. I have no idea why she's focusing on relative rates instead of the actual counts, but even doing that, her findings are sharply at variance with what the dataset actually contains:

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

versus

The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from January 26 through October 3 ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (<25 years) to a high of 94,646 among adults aged 75–84 years. However, the average percentage change in deaths over this period compared with previous years was largest for adults aged 25–44 years (26.5%). Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged <25 years were 2.0% below average, and among adults aged 45–64, 65–74 years, 75–84, and ≥85 years were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively.

Source

Normally the crank claim is to insist the raw data are fabricated, but in this case she's accepting the raw data, so she can only have misinterpreted it.

[elSquid]

Page directly from CDC for all cause mortality going back a few years, with visualization. Go halfway down the page to see it.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

“Something” new pretty clearly began killing people starting early last year.

— Michael

[seal20]

Holy crap this is all BS from every which angle on both sides

[Newguy1980]

Yeah I'm trying to find the overall deaths as well as it does seem that the excess deaths chart shows there was definitely "excess deaths." There was another article recently that showed the CDC added a "round up" value for the final week of 2020 so that the total deaths for 2020 was indeed up over 300k for the year, instead of simply being quite close. But those charts are missing as well.

Anyone else have any luck?

[SPUTTER]

Page directly from CDC for all cause mortality going back a few years, with visualization. Go halfway down the page to see it.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

That graph shows "predicted" number of deaths.

[SPUTTER]

So we know we're being lied to on an industrial scale. Here's proof

https://politicrossing.com/the-covid-news-you-didnt-hear/

Still not wearing a mask. Rip off your filthy face diaper, too.

My machine doesn't like this website at all, it's giving me warnings. Any other links?

She doesn't appear to be analyzing the data properly. I have no idea why she's focusing on relative rates instead of the actual counts, but even doing that, her findings are sharply at variance with what the dataset actually contains:



versus



Source

Normally the crank claim is to insist the raw data are fabricated, but in this case she's accepting the raw data, so she can only have misinterpreted it.

From your source.
Report discarded, predictive model.

Holy crap this is all BS from every which angle on both sides

That's just how it is these days, you can't take every story at face value but you can always just rely on common sense. Do you see bodies stacked up on the street during said pandemic? Do you see homeless dying in droves during said pandemic? Do you see the hospitals full of patients during said pandemic. Sometimes common sense is all you need.

[as_rocketman]

From your source.

Report discarded, predictive model.

Yeah, no. That refers to the prediction of 2021 baseline only. If you want to be a complete Luddite and reject any and all statistics, instead comparing year-on-year totals, the excess is actually even higher.

[SPUTTER]

Yeah, no. That refers to the prediction of 2021 baseline only. If you want to be a complete Luddite and reject any and all statistics, instead comparing year-on-year totals, the excess is actually even higher.

From your source.

Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19.

Keywords are in bold. The word "were" is past tense, pretty sure that's not referring to 2021. You can call me all the names you want, doesn't make any difference to me. The report you sited is a predictive model based on provisional data.

[as_rocketman]

Keywords are in bold. The word "were" is past tense, pretty sure that's not referring to 2021. You can call me all the names you want, doesn't make any difference to me. The report you sited is a predictive model based on provisional data.

I mistyped, obviously the only data in consideration there are from 2020. That however does not explain your confusion.

You should have bolded the word expected. When they compute the excess deaths, they are measuring the amount that are actually counted against the number they expect, i.e., the baseline 2020 deaths had there been no pandemic. That expectation is a statistical estimate. It is also clearly laid out in the paper, and pretty darn consistent with past years.

Like I said, you can substitute prior year actuals if you insist, and while the estimate won't be as precise, it won't materially change the outcome.