Zhyla's sane COVID-19 assessment thread (last update: 04/11/2020)

[zhyla]

Post 62

https://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/...t=Zhyla&page=2

Well, I'm gonna have to learn how to update thread titles then I guess.

[LBDamned]

Well, I'm gonna have to learn how to update thread titles then I guess.

You can train a monkey to do it. I'm sure you'll figure it out.

[SWalt]

You can train a monkey to do it. I'm sure you'll figure it out.

Not so sure. Do ya think he might even look in this thread to get a clue? hint, hint, wink, wink

[skirunman]

I'm still predicting 12k dead this week (Sun-Sat) +/-20%. 40k by June 1 (same confidence intervals). So like an average flu year.

However, this graph shows the real pain, suffering and death that our mitigation efforts represent. It is going to be tough slogging this Summer.

[zhyla]

I'm still predicting 12k dead this week (Sun-Sat) +/-20%. 40k by June 1 (same confidence intervals). So like an average flu year.

40k by June 1? We're at 39k today (according to this -- the ncovid19.live site appears to be down now?).

Doubling period has been swinging a bit the last few days. Seems like it still averages out to 7 or 8 days. I imagine we'll be around 70k come next Sunday the 26th.

40k dead in what, a month in early spring? Sounds exactly like every flu we've ever had, right?

[five.five-six]

Hospitals are ghost towns, people are dying of stroke and heart attack in their homes because they are too afraid to go to the hospital and get the rona.

Hospital only makes money if you die there, people dying at home is lost revenue.


Hospitals are businesses, as such they need money and the government is paying handsomely for Wuhan cases, that’s why everything from car wrecks to blood clots are being classified as china flu deaths.

[sd_shooter]

40k by June 1? We're at 39k today (according to this -- the ncovid19.live site appears to be down now?).

Doubling period has been swinging a bit the last few days. Seems like it still averages out to 7 or 8 days. I imagine we'll be around 70k come next Sunday the 26th.

40k dead in what, a month in early spring? Sounds exactly like every flu we've ever had, right?

You were very close this time.

But note that there's at least 10k non-covid deaths in there, if not more. Any death is now called covid if it occurred since the outbreak.

[five.five-six]

[skirunman]

40k by June 1? We're at 39k today (according to this -- the ncovid19.live site appears to be down now?).

Doubling period has been swinging a bit the last few days. Seems like it still averages out to 7 or 8 days. I imagine we'll be around 70k come next Sunday the 26th.

40k dead in what, a month in early spring?

20.5k dead 4/11, 39.5k dead 4/19, is 19k dead this week, subtract 5-6k for changes in reporting methodology gives us 13-14k dead so within my previous estimate of 12k +/- 20%. Can't change the rules mid-game and expect to have a fair outcome.

With the new reporting standards my estimate for this coming week end of 4/25 is 16k dead +/- 20%, by June 1 58k dead +/- 20%, of which 12k is change in reporting methodology and 6k for more deaths in NYC than I originally estimated.

Sounds exactly like every flu we've ever had, right?

I've never said anything like this. This is a serious virus that will likely kill about the same number of people in the USA as a serious flu year. Looks like we are still tracking to those numbers.

I am still convinced that the harm done by the widespread shutdown to our economy, both to our public health and long term wellbeing, far outweighs the benefit of this shutdown. I've provided my thoughts and calculations on this in other threads.

[sakosf]

A bit of possible good news reported in SF Chronicle:

"3:45 p.m. Bay Area hospitalizations reach April low: The nine Bay Area counties had 391 confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospitals as of Saturday, the area’s lowest one-day total in April, according to state data released Sunday and reviewed by The Chronicle. The previous low was 397 cases reported April 1. Intensive care units had 167 confirmed COVID-19 patients Saturday, up from a low of 163 Wednesday but marking a 9.3 percent decrease from one week earlier. Statewide, ICUs saw a 0.9% decrease in confirmed COVID-19 patients to 1,163 on Saturday, while hospitalized cases decreased by 0.8% to 3,196."

[Inoxmark]

Bull****. Prove it. No insurer, Medicare included, is paying lump sums for diagnosis. Payments are for treatments, for procedures, and they have to be medically justified.

[JamesH]

Probable cases. Yay! Die with a fever or trouble breathing = COVID19!
Hashtag keep is locked down!

[JamesH]

Bull****. Prove it. No insurer, Medicare included, is paying lump sums for diagnosis. Payments are for treatments, for procedures, and they have to be medically justified.

Lol, by whom? A questioner?