Zhyla's sane COVID-19 assessment thread (last update: 04/11/2020)

[zhyla]

It's that time again!

USA numbers

Well, today we hit 20k. The doubling period for deaths has slowed considerably since last weekend. We're currently averaging around 5.5 days. That's a huge, huge improvement over the 3-4 days we were seeing the previous week.

I won't speculate too much about why it's improving. Is the spread slowing as well? Did wearing masks take a big chunk out of the spread? I dunno.

Everyone loves the doubling predictions. Maybe this thing will slow down further but I see no reason we won't have 40k dead by next Saturday (the 18th).

Should I worry

By now we should be well aware that this isn't "just a flu" -- normal influenza does not kill 20k of us in 2 weeks.

There are several things floating around that people seem to be clinging onto as game-changers:

1. Warm weather.
2. HCQ (malaria meds, etc).
3. Wearing masks.
4. Denial.

Of these, the mask wearing seems like the most likely to succeed. Warmer weather may slow the spread (tell that to Iran) but everyone dying in an ICU is at the same room temperature. The HCQ is yet to really been proven from what I can tell (and the CDC backed off on it).

Denial of course is a time-proven method for dealing with plagues. Glad to see it's getting so many people by.

Where's the TP???

I don't know. I mean, my elderly neighbors have a year supply in their garage. I guess it keeps them from having to get exposed at the grocery store.

I would have thought the supply chain would have re-routed the commercial TP by now to retail sales.

Someone told me in England they having a similar problem with another essential good. I don't remember what it was, but the problem was an undersupply of packaging for retail sales of that good. Solvable problems but it's interesting that economic choke points show up in surprising places.

What happens next?

Starting to see media articles about European countries opening up. Also read an interesting piece about Sweden, which never really shut down, basically just told the old people it's a good idea to isolate. I take this as a sign that we're starting to float the idea of opening back up soon. I assume Trump will seize on the slowing death rate to say we've "peaked" and push for a back-to-work policy towards the end of the month.

The "peak" is an interesting concept. I am sure if we went back to zero measures in place this thing would flare right back up (the "second wave" they're talking about in China). But maybe this was, economically speaking, about all we could afford to do for our elderly.

That said, I expect California to lag significantly behind fed recommendations. Compared to most states our industries are WFH friendly and we can coast a little farther on our wealth. Are we still locked up in June? I really hope not, but it seems possible.

[cleonard]

Deaths lag positive tests by one to three weeks. Positive tests lag infection by another week. Some stay sick in the hospital for a lot longer.

Hospitalization rates are down. Deaths will follow that statistic. We are starting to see the reductions due to the social distancing implemented last month.

That French doctor released a third paper with over 1000 patients. I've not fully digested it yet, but HCQ is not a 100% cure. That may or may not be partially due to the damage already done before HCQ was started.

Sweden is rethinking the policy. Depends on the numbers in the next few days.

I'm WFH for a large internet company. I'm not as productive though. The commute rocks!

We will be watching those states that open first. Talk about a high risk experiment.

[fleetline]

"By now we should be well aware that this isn't "just a flu" -- normal influenza does not kill 20k of us in 2 weeks"'



Of course it's not just a flu. The normal influenza every year ,does not get credited for pretty much every death that happens, as is the Covid-19 getting credit for.

This is a sensational media Flu.

[skirunman]

Is the spread slowing as well?

Highly likely as rate of confirmed new cases in US is basically flat over last week.

Did wearing masks take a big chunk out of the spread?

Highly unlikely based on the fact that face masks have only been a recommendation for about a week and does not seem to be widely implemented.

Everyone loves the doubling predictions. Maybe this thing will slow down further but I see no reason we won't have 40k dead by next Saturday (the 18th).

I think this is a bad prediction based on available data. Look at rate of change in the death rate and look at latest IHME predictions I'm guessing closer to 12k dead next week +/- 20%.

By now we should be well aware that this isn't "just a flu" -- normal influenza does not kill 20k of us in 2 weeks.

Technically COVID-19 has not killed 20k of us either in 2 weeks if one is to quibble. Looks like closer to 18k in last 2 weeks. In any case, looking at worst case flu years I see estimated 5k-10k could die over 2 week period.

I do agree that COVID-19 does kill more of the elderly, especially those with comorbidities, than does the flu. It does seem to kill less of the young though. It is certainly more dangerous in these cases, but I think the data is telling us now that it is not 30x more deadly than the flu as originally claimed by WHO, but likely will be closer to something like 3-5x when all the data is in. This is just my SWAG (scientific will azz guess).

Denial of course is a time-proven method for dealing with plagues. Glad to see it's getting so many people by.

I'm puzzled by what you think people are denying?

What I have been saying, and continue to say as the evolving data seems to agree with my original thesis, is that the mitigation efforts we have put in place so far in the US is worse than the actual virus, ie. the cure is worse than the disease.

Most of the denial I have seen is from those underplaying (maybe through ignorance or lack of economic understanding) the misery and death that is going to follow because of the economic damage to both the US and the world we have caused with these shutdowns.

I assume Trump will seize on the slowing death rate to say we've "peaked" and push for a back-to-work policy towards the end of the month.

I hope we get a plan or guidelines to re-open for business by the end of this week from the POTUS.

Remember, the entire reason for these shutdowns was to "flatten the curve" so our hospitals would not be overwhelmed. Based on data we have now this does not seem like a real issue outside of a couple of dense urban areas. Rest of us, including in San Francisco where I live, should get back to work with a new set of guidelines to continue to slow the spread. This virus is going to continue to infect people and kill certain people until we get a vaccine, which is best case a year away.

The "peak" is an interesting concept. I am sure if we went back to zero measures in place this thing would flare right back up (the "second wave" they're talking about in China). But maybe this was, economically speaking, about all we could afford to do for our elderly.

That said, I expect California to lag significantly behind fed recommendations. Compared to most states our industries are WFH friendly and we can coast a little farther on our wealth. Are we still locked up in June? I really hope not, but it seems possible.

Peak for deaths in US and CA expected this week so this means we are already past peak for actual new infections. Time to get back to work to help mitigate the extreme pain that is coming to all of us because of the economic meltdown.

I just hope we can be back on a significant economic upswing by October. The sooner we get back to work the better.

[zhyla]

Peak for deaths in US and CA expected this week so this means we are already past peak for actual new infections. Time to get back to work to help mitigate the extreme pain that is coming to all of us because of the economic meltdown.

So you don't think there's a potential for a second wave? Remember, we likely have only had 1-2% of the population infected so far. Exact percentage is obviously debatable -- we have half a million confirmed cases, but likely have 10x as many unconfirmed (wild *** guess).

[skirunman]

So you don't think there's a potential for a second wave? Remember, we likely have only had 1-2% of the population infected so far. Exact percentage is obviously debatable -- we have half a million confirmed cases, but likely have 10x as many unconfirmed (wild *** guess).

There is potential for a second wave in the Fall for sure, but hopefully by then we will have better understanding of treatments for those seriously ill including antibodies. In addition, we should put in place better policies to protect those most likely to become seriously ill and die, like those living in assisted living and nursing homes or those with serious comorbidities. I don't believe we are at much risk of overwhelming hospitals at this point. The rest of us can get back to work and not worry about the very small chance of dying from COVID-19. This virus is going to run its course until we have a vaccine.

[OlderThanDirt]

[SW1917]

Because -unlike you - we're not perfect and understand that sh## happens

[OlderThanDirt]

Because -unlike you - we're not perfect and understand that sh## happens

Someone has been quarantining at home too long and is getting overly sensitive.

[cleonard]

Because -unlike you - we're not perfect and understand that sh## happens

I've done it many times in the past. You can edit the title by clicking on "advanced" from teh edit page. So fix it Zhyla.

[NorcalGSG]

Considering China and Singapore are in their second wave right now, I really think expecting a second wave for the US to not hit until Fall is an extreme fantasy but hey, nobody knows until a few more thousand die, right? Things should IMHO stay quiet at least a few more weeks until the antibody tests can be distributed more widely, esp for people who are compromised and hcw, etc and need to get back to work. Stanford is on the cusp of knowing quite a bit more after running their antibody tests and crunching the numbers.

[zhyla]

Seriously! I had one job here, one job! I might have the virus.

[Barang]

Someone has been quarantining at home too long and is getting overly sensitive.

must be running low on tp.

[TrappedinCalifornia]

So you don't think there's a potential for a second wave? Remember, we likely have only had 1-2% of the population infected so far. Exact percentage is obviously debatable -- we have half a million confirmed cases, but likely have 10x as many unconfirmed (wild *** guess).

That's exactly what it is... a wild guess. One of the hypotheses being explored, particularly in relation to California, is...

It seems there is a current study, with testing, looking into it... New study investigates California's possible herd immunity to COVID-19

As I stated on that thread, we know the first confirmed case in the U.S. was 1/21/20. With as much as a two-week incubation, that would push infection back to almost the beginning of the year, about a week or so after the World Health Organization reported the virus in China.

However, there are reports that the first case of COVID-19 in China goes back to November - First Covid-19 case happened in November, China government records show - report. Again, that's with actual diagnosis.

Thus, it is more than possible (likelihood is a different discussion) that the virus was brought to the U.S. late last autumn and was not diagnosed as such until just after the first of the year. Remember, catching the virus isn't necessarily a death sentence and the symptoms can be and are easily confused, even by doctors, with those stemming from the 'normal' flu, a cold, or even allergies; particularly when the cases are mild. In fact, there is still no 'absolute' differentiation without actual testing; which is why there is so much furor over test kit availability.

Just like you said in that thread...

I'm very interested in this. My sister in law and I both went to China last fall. I came back in good health. She came back with a wicked illness including fever and was hospitalized. Tested negative for influenza. She had a gnarly dry cough for like a month after that. Then my daughter got it. She had fever off and on for a week or 10 days and a cough.

The only thing that isn't consistent with COVID-19 is this was around the holidays and our family and extended family were staying together for most of that time. Other than my elderly father in law nobody else got it.

So, I dunno, could have just been another random cold.

The reason it's being explored is that it is a piece of data we NEED to know, for a variety of reasons.

[TheGood]

Zhyla's Insane COVID-19 assessment thread 04/11/2020

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