Zhyla's sane COVID-19 assessment thread (last update: 04/11/2020)

[sd_shooter]

It's that time again!

Indeed

Well, today we hit 20k. The doubling period for deaths has slowed considerably since last weekend.

Yes it has. And it's going to continue to slow down. (In before our Mathematicians and Scientists show up to insist it's actually speeding up!)

Everyone loves the doubling predictions. Maybe this thing will slow down further but I see no reason we won't have 40k dead by next Saturday (the 18th).

Saved for posterity

I see a couple reasons:
- You were wrong about your 10k prediction
- You were wrong about your 20k prediction

Why would you think you're right about your 40k prediction?

By now we should be well aware that this isn't "just a flu" -- normal influenza does not kill 20k of us in 2 weeks.

And neither does the covid. (Well depends on your definition of "us.")

Normal flu kills 5000 per week in a bad season, 10k per 2W. (80k deaths /16 weeks, the average flu season). Doesn't even garner a headline.

[freonr22]

Who is Hyla? In the thread title?

[speedrrracer]

Remember, the entire reason for these shutdowns was to "flatten the curve" so our hospitals would not be overwhelmed. Based on data we have now this does not seem like a real issue outside of a couple of dense urban areas. Rest of us, including in San Francisco where I live, should get back to work with a new set of guidelines to continue to slow the spread. This virus is going to continue to infect people and kill certain people until we get a vaccine, which is best case a year away.

QFT

More interesting point of discussion, since China's wet markets are still rolling, there's nothing stopping this from happening again (covid-21?) next year. What then?

[Steve1968LS2]

And neither does the covid. (Well depends on your definition of "us.")

Normal flu kills 5000 per week in a bad season, 10k per 2W. (80k deaths /16 weeks, the average flu season). Doesn't even garner a headline.

I remember when those of us who said "Yeah, it's bad but it's going to move through LIKE a really bad flu and kill around 80,000" were laughed at.

"NO!! It's going to wipe out 200,000!! or more!"

Well.. looks like it will be way way under 80k.. meanwhile the economy is in shambles and 100,000 people are out of work. And while we should have done some mitigation the complete shutdown will someday be seen as an over-reaction. Of course in hindsight that's easier to see

The seasonal flu can kill 60,000 and nobody gives a single crap.. this kills 60,000 and we try to put ourselves into the great depression. Here's an idea, maybe we need a course of action somewhere in the middle.

[sd_shooter]

QFT

More interesting point of discussion, since China's wet markets are still rolling, there's nothing stopping this from happening again (covid-21?) next year. What then?

- Duck Flu
- Swine Flu
- Bat Flu
- Dog Flu
- Cat Flu
- Rat Flu

[Steve1968LS2]

QFT

More interesting point of discussion, since China's wet markets are still rolling, there's nothing stopping this from happening again (covid-21?) next year. What then?

If you believe it came from eating a bat..

I still lean towards it was a virus they were working with at the lab that got out.. it's happened before and I just can't ignore this starting where they have a big lab studying viruses.. and I read one of the viruses they were studying had to do with bats.

I don't buy it was a bio-weapon.. don't buy it was on purpose.. but the rest seems quite plausible

[five.five-six]

It's that time again!

USA numbers

Well, today we hit 20k. The doubling period for deaths has slowed considerably since last weekend. We're currently averaging around 5.5 days. That's a huge, huge improvement over the 3-4 days we were seeing the previous week.

[zhyla]

I see a couple reasons:
- You were wrong about your 10k prediction
- You were wrong about your 20k prediction

Why would you think you're right about your 40k prediction?

For one thing, the situation is stabilizing a bit. We shall see!

[speedrrracer]

Here's an idea, maybe we need a course of action somewhere in the middle.

QFT, but most people are too dumbstruck with fear to do any kind of thinking, ergo our current situation

If you believe it came from eating a bat..

Silly theories are cute, but beside the point. If it was an accident from a lab, accidents happen, and will therefore happen again. If it was, as is 99.999999999999999% likely, from a wet market, well, those are up and running, so it can happen again.

The point is that it can happen again. We've sent millions into the unemployment lines and sent our economy into a depression (the online headline of the WaPo today is, "America is in a depression. The challenge is to make it short-lived"), and if this happens again? What then?

An obvious response might be, "Well, we sure can't have the same response again, because we simply can't afford it". OK, obvious response is obvious. So given that we can't have this same myopic response again, what response will we choose to have?

[five.five-six]

An obvious response might be, "Well, we sure can't have the same response again, because we simply can't afford it". OK, obvious response is obvious. So given that we can't have this same myopic response again, what response will we choose to have?

If we saved 140,000 lives for $6T it works out to $42 million per life saved.

divided by 300 million Americans, it's only $20K each.. $20K for every man, woman, child and illegal. of course, most can't pay so it's probably more like $80k for anyone who a=has done something with their lives.

[therealnickb]

FIFY

[Steve1968LS2]

If we saved 140,000 lives for $6T it works out to $42 million per life saved.

divided by 300 million Americans, it's only $20K each.. $20K for every man, woman, child and illegal. of course, most can't pay so it's probably more like $80k for anyone who a=has done something with their lives.

We didn't "Save" 140,000 people... I bet we saved 20-30k... maybe..

See, that's the problem.. we will never know, especially if the numbers turn out to be inflated..

[sd_shooter]

Since it's ostensibly to save lives, Maybe if we stopped abortions we could make up for the older people hit by the covid...

[therealnickb]

We’re not saving that many lives. We’re just postponing some deaths.

[zhyla]

That's literally what we pay doctors to do.