More Good News CA

[capo]

Latest pending test numbers for CA are 56,365 to be processed as of yesterday. They had 1,035 positive and 1.223 negative results on that day for a total test throughput of 2258.

For reference NY processed over 18.5k tests on March 30.

All numbers courtesy of the statnews covid-19 tracker.

[tcop143]

Let me preface my comment with the fact I believe the Chinese virus is not a hoax, and that we need to take extra care to prevent the spread (not much more than common sense, but that may be a different topic).

Whether we’ve hit the peak, or at the peak, or it’s two weeks away, it’s all crap. I am firmly convinced by my own experiences, along with people I’ve spoken with and things I’ve read, this virus was here well before January. I suspect it’s been here since November or December, and that completely throws off all of these freaking models.

We get updates on the number of new cases and deaths, but those come with zero context. Were the new cases asymptomatic, or did they require hospitalization? Same household/work place, etc? Were the deaths strictly from Chinese virus, or a contributing factor, or did they just test positive at the time of death? Not to mention everything else that kills us. Context/prospective is everything.

We are freaking Americans, not Italians, not Chinese. NONE of the data coming from these places should be applied to us. Anything that comes out of any university regarding this virus is probably one that promotes communism, advocates for a Green New Deal and that there are 57 genders, etc, etc. All of that s$&t needs to be heavily vetted before it gets used to make policy decisions that could effect this country for generations to come.

As far as I’m concerned we’re nearing a time when we rip up Newsom’s shelter in place order like his auntie did to President Trump’s speech before we find ourselves in place where Wuhan virus will be the least of our concerns, whether that be in the depths of an economic collapse or in a country that more resembles the one this virus (and so many others) came from.

[boris badinov]

Let me preface my comment with the fact I believe the Chinese virus is not a hoax, and that we need to take extra care to prevent the spread (not much more than common sense, but that may be a different topic).

Whether we’ve hit the peak, or at the peak, or it’s two weeks away, it’s all crap. I am firmly convinced by my own experiences, along with people I’ve spoken with and things I’ve read, this virus was here well before January. I suspect it’s been here since November or December, and that completely throws off all of these freaking models.

We get updates on the number of new cases and deaths, but those come with zero context. Were the new cases asymptomatic, or did they require hospitalization? Same household/work place, etc? Were the deaths strictly from Chinese virus, or a contributing factor, or did they just test positive at the time of death? Not to mention everything else that kills us. Context/prospective is everything.

We are freaking Americans, not Italians, not Chinese. NONE of the data coming from these places should be applied to us. Anything that comes out of any university regarding this virus is probably one that promotes communism, advocates for a Green New Deal and that there are 57 genders, etc, etc. All of that s$&t needs to be heavily vetted before it gets used to make policy decisions that could effect this country for generations to come.

As far as I’m concerned we’re nearing a time when we rip up Newsom’s shelter in place order like his auntie did to President Trump’s speech before we find ourselves in place where Wuhan virus will be the least of our concerns, whether that be in the depths of an economic collapse or in a country that more resembles the one this virus (and so many others) came from.

It's funny how you start by stating that the virus is not a hoax, but end up declaring that it is a conspiracy.

A lot of your questions suggest that you haven't been following any of the information that is put out daily (?) and cross verified by a redundancy of sources.

Just fyi, asymptomatic cases of infection are not being tested BECAUSE specific symptoms must be exhibited before testing is allowed.

[GeeBee49]

When do you think the peak will be, just curious?

I'm basing my opinion on the fact that we've had several pandemics over the years that lasted a lot longer than three months. The Swine Flu lasted from April 2009 until August 2010 and had a first and second wave. The current virus is said to be much more serious than the Swine Flu.
I have no way of knowing when this will peak. I'm hoping, like others, that the hot summer months will slow it down considerably. But, that's a couple of months away at best.

[boris badinov]

When do you think the peak will be, just curious?

Assuming perfect adherence to isolation and distancing orders, the US peak is projected to occur mid April.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Each state will have a different peak depending on conditions, supply and adherence, in the given state.

Daily death rate will begin to flatten out in late May/early June.

[tcop143]

It's funny how you start by stating that the virus is not a hoax, but end up declaring that it is a conspiracy.

A lot of your questions suggest that you haven't been following any of the information that is put out daily (?) and cross verified by a redundancy of sources.

Just fyi, asymptomatic cases of infection are not being tested BECAUSE specific symptoms must be exhibited before testing is allowed.

Confirmation bias much? How did I declare the virus was a conspiracy?

Please share with me and everyone else here the source of your daily, reliable, cross verified information so I can fall in in line and feel better about jumping off an effing cliff.

[boris badinov]

Confirmation bias much? How did I declare the virus was a conspiracy?

Please share with me and everyone else here the source of your daily, reliable, cross verified information so I can fall in in line and feel better about jumping off an effing cliff.

You have access to the internet. Find it yourself.

CDC, NIH, IMHE, NIAID, Cornell University, Johns Hopkins, etc

[KatMan53]

Nooooooooooo! Keep it going. I'm "essential" and being paid hazard pay. Plus my commute is 2 hours less per day.

Da virus been berry berry good to me.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Good for you! You should pray for a real disaster, like a massive earthquake that knocks out infrastructure. Maybe you'd get double-hazard pay and a take-home helicopter.

[skirunman]

Assuming perfect adherence to isolation and distancing orders, the US peak is projected to occur mid April.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Each state will have a different peak depending on conditions, supply and adherence, in the given state.

Daily death rate will begin to flatten out in late May/early June.

You know that is just one of many models. It is not a "future predicting machine". In addition, it seems they are updating the model every couple of days based on actual data so they already know their "predictive model" is just another SWAG (scientific wild azz guess). Yes, I have read the paper their model is based on. Look at the 95% confidence intervals to give you an idea of just how much of a SWAG that model actually is...

As an aside, the company I founded does machine/deep learning (AI), which really is just applied math and not "artificial intelligence". We've been talking about AI for the 30+ years since I was in school and based on the state of the technology I would not worry our robot overlords anytime soon either.

Creating a model to attempt to accurately model these complex natural systems is not easy and fraught with inaccuracies. Only time will tell if their original predictions come anywhere close to the truth.

[boris badinov]

You know that is just one of many models. It is not a "future predicting machine".

Yes that is why I specifically used the word "projected".

We'll know in 2-4 weeks how accurate or inaccurate the projections were.

[cleonard]

If toady is the day that infections start going down, we will need to maintain social distancing for at least 4 years. Otherwise it will just come roaring back. We can't do 4 years.

I don't think that is going to happen and we will grow the numbers until near the end of April as projected. We may well see round two next fall/winter. I hope that we are ready for it and we have proven treatments.

The only thing stopping this is herd immunity. That happens by getting it and recovering or getting a working vaccine.