More Good News CA

[Squatch]

Nooooooooooo! Keep it going. I'm "essential" and being paid hazard pay. Plus my commute is 2 hours less per day.

Da virus been berry berry good to me.

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[lone shooter]

Our states infection rate declined two days in a row. Have we peaked? How long before Governor takes the restrictions off ?

So, we have had very nice and warm days (supposed to be 77 today) here for a while. Wonder if that is a factor? It will be interesting to see if the trend continues. I know, one or two days doesn't = a trend, but the fear mongers always use it that way.

[lp3056]

Just the testing bogged down.

https://www.bing.com/covid/local/california_unitedstates

Today over yesterday = 5739 / 4643 = 23.6% case rate growth

We have at least another week to go before statewide containment efforts can start to show up. In that time if the growth rate just stays above 20% / day we'll be over 20k cases by next Monday.

Expect those numbers to rise by significantly more than 20% per day if/when we can actually start running the mass number of tests being collected. The backlog is only growing right now, read below from a recent Mercury News article...


https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/...tests-pending/

Kind of... Since those results may come late and be counted in current totals, they don't show a real rate as some test are from a week ago.

You would have to go back and update all the stats based when they were taken.

Who is testing California's that there is a 65K backlog? No other state has a backlog like that.

[capo]

Kind of... Since those results may come late and be counted in current totals, they don't show a real rate as some test are from a week ago.

You would have to go back and update all the stats based when they were taken.

Who is testing California's that there is a 65K backlog? No other state has a backlog like that.

I don't know what the lab testing backup is being caused by but there is definitely a published backup according to news outlets.

Obviously it is relatively easy to mass produce more test kits but it's no simple task to generate more lab bandwidth. Our private infrastructure likely isn't configured to handle this level of testing.

[bruss01]

Our states infection rate declined two days in a row. Have we peaked? How long before Governor takes the restrictions off ?

What's the reason it's declined? The virus suddenly became less contagious? All the people who are going to get it, have already had it?

Or is it that the social distancing & isolation is working as intended?

What happens if you take those away? BOOM - right back where we were.

It's going to be at least the end of April. We haven't seen the worst of this yet by far.

[GeeBee49]

I know, one or two days doesn't = a trend, but the fear mongers always use it that way.

If you're referring to my post, I don't consider myself a fear monger but rather a realist. I try to look at the facts instead of how I hope things are or will be.
If you're not referring to my post then disregard this reply.

[Dirtlaw]

Maybe the OP can post his source. Some hopeful news would be nice.

https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

A two-day drop ... but I agree, an anomaly. I believe the next couple of weeks will be brutal.

[lone shooter]

I know, one or two days doesn't = a trend, but the fear mongers always use it that way.

If you're referring to my post, I don't consider myself a fear monger but rather a realist. I try to look at the facts instead of how I hope things are or will be.
If you're not referring to my post then disregard this reply.

No, I'm not referring to you. I watch the news, and they say 100,000 people are going to die! How do they come up with this number? I believe US had 3000 deaths. 100,000 is a LONG way away. Also, looking at the numbers, seems like 10% to 15% of confirmed cases ultimately lead to death. We would need 1M confirmed cases to = 100,000 to 150,000 deaths if those numbers hold true.

[GeeBee49]

I did a search when this thread started but didn't find anything related. That doesn't mean it's not true, searches can be fickle depending on your wording.

[skirunman]

Because testing is limited and not being applied using the same policies everywhere in California, and we have not done any randomized testing of the population, we don't know if we are only finding 25%, 5% or 1% of those actually infected.

Therefore, I think daily death total is a better indicator if the trend is going in the right direction. Using average of 15-20 days from catch disease to death (my best estimates based on numerous data sources) we should have a better idea of where things are going in the coming 5-7 days. Good news is that we have had relatively flat number of deaths in last 6 days (17, 11, 19, 20, 15, 14). If we can keep this trend that would be a good indicator we are not going to be another NYC.

[GeeBee49]

No, I'm not referring to you. I watch the news, and they say 100,000 people are going to die! How do they come up with this number? I believe US had 3000 deaths. 100,000 is a LONG way away. Also, looking at the numbers, seems like 10% to 15% of confirmed cases ultimately lead to death. We would need 1M confirmed cases to = 100,000 to 150,000 deaths if those numbers hold true.

I agree with you about the numbers which is why I said take the statistics with a grain of salt.
We have no idea how they came up with the numbers and we certainly don't know how they can project when the peak will occur. We are still in the beginning phase of this thing and in my opinion the peak will not be the middle of April or the end of April.
What I think and what I hope for are two different things.

[lone shooter]

Because testing is limited and not being applied using the same policies everywhere in California, and we have not done any randomized testing of the population, we don't know if we are only finding 25%, 5% or 1% of those actually infected.

Therefore, I think daily death total is a better indicator if the trend is going in the right direction. Using average of 15-20 days from catch disease to death (my best estimates based on numerous data sources) we should have a better idea of where things are going in the coming 5-7 days. Good news is that we have had relatively flat number of deaths in last 6 days (17, 11, 19, 20, 15, 14). If we can keep this trend that would be a good indicator we are not going to be another NYC.

True, but just because you are +, you may not show any symptoms (small number I'm sure). No need to worry about those people with regard to medical attention. We just need them to stay home! I also believe, folks are finally NOW taking this serious and staying at home.

I agree with this too. We're now on our 2nd week of when the mayor and governor went on tv and said STAY HOME. So the next week or two could payoff dividends. I hope so.

[DrjonesUSA]

We are still in the beginning phase of this thing and in my opinion the peak will not be the middle of April or the end of April.

.

When do you think the peak will be, just curious?

[Mithrandir13]

. Sad.... praying the turnaround is soon!!

[boris badinov]

California peak is forecast for the last week of April.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Click the United States of America menu to see the California projections.