Illinois lawmakers approve CCW bill

[jnojr]

No not really, what it does is send a message to CA lawmakers and judges that the bar set for CA is not up to snuff. This could help both Richards and Peruta sitting with the ninth for some nudging on what they should or should not rule on.

What do California Legislators care? They will never be held personally accountable, so they are going to keep on doing what they've been doing.

[Rail]

If they don't already have AWBs why would they pass one now?

When an opportunity is about to be taken away, some feel the need to take advantage of it: it's happening in a couple of northern Chicago suburbs.

http://illinoiscarry.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=38561#entry505523

How about going for a severe weakening of the bill? Do an amendatory veto stripping the home-rule override and making CHLs may-issue like CA. A straight veto risks the legislature balking and allowing the entire bill to expire, putting the issue back to the courts.

He isn't that stupid: going for a full weakening of the bill means no support in the legislature: downstate representatives will see it as no better than the cliff, suburban representatives want preemption on carry and on handguns. Madigan and those that run the Democratic Party in the state do not want to lose seats downstate in the midterms, that's why he pushed for shall-issue with preemption in the first place. He may try rolling back preemption on everything but carry (the bill has preemption on carry and on all issues related to handguns) thinking he may have the votes for a simple majority to accept those changes. That's not likely.

Kagan? She's a terribly doctrinaire progressive, why would you think she's anywhere near the fence?

We don't know what her position is on 2A: we can't rule out that Scalia's hunting trips haven't had an effect on her. There are liberals who have their token conservative stances and conservatives who have their token liberal stances. Somehow, while our side can't 100% rely on all the Heller 5, I don't think the other side can 100% rely on her.

[Mulay El Raisuli]

We don't know what her position is on 2A: we can't rule out that Scalia's hunting trips haven't had an effect on her. There are liberals who have their token conservative stances and conservatives who have their token liberal stances. Somehow, while our side can't 100% rely on all the Heller 5, I don't think the other side can 100% rely on her.

Here's hoping.


The Raisuli

[Paladin]

Okay, so now the governor has until July 9th to sign/veto/amend veto.

IIRC, the AG used the June 9th date as the reason she needed a 30 day extension for deciding re. asking for cert. since she wanted to see what the state would do. SCOTUS gave her one until June 24th.

Will she now be able to ask for and get another 30 day extension re. asking for cert. in case Quinn does not act before June 24th?

I called that one!

A spokeswoman says one reason Madigan's seeking another delay is because of uncertainty over Quinn's plans for the measure.

From: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/i...28e988002.html

Background: you have to make sure you're not confusing the two different extensions from two different levels of federal courts of appeal.

1) CA-7 told IL it needs to allow carry by June 9th.

2) IL AG asks SCOTUS for an extension of the deadline (until after June 9th), for deciding whether to ask for cert. so that she can see what IL does re. allowing Carry before she has to decide re. asking for cert. in Sheperd-Moore.

3) SCOTUS give AG 30 day extension until June 24th to decide about asking for cert.

4) IL legislature doesn't pass Carry bill until the last day of their normal session, leaving the governor fewer than 10 days (vs the 60 he normally would have), to decide what to do with the final bill.

5) IL AG asks CA-7 for an extension before their order kicks in.

6) CA-7 says, yes, for 30 days until July 9th, but no more extensions after that.

My guess SCOTUS will give it to her since "public carry" under the 2nd A is a big and hot issue and they want to show that everyone had more than a fair chance dealing with it.

So, we may not know if Sheperd-Moore gets appealed to SCOTUS until July 24th 22nd. If other fed CA's have been delaying releasing their opinions to see if IL AG asks for cert, they may delay until August, less than 2 months after that is SCOTUS' "long conference." Will they then wait another 2 months until after the Long Conference to see if they won't even have to release their opinions because SCOTUS will take a Carry case? Will SCOTUS decide not to take a Carry case, preferring to wait to see what the various CAs say first? "Chicken and egg" problem?

ETA: corrected end date of 2nd extension per http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x871007...#axzz2WekvpNXV

[randian]

My guess SCOTUS will give it to her since "public carry" under the 2nd A is a big and hot issue and they want to show that everyone had more than a fair chance dealing with it.

SCOTUS works fast if you're the government: cert filing extension already granted by Kagan

I think this makes Kagan's position on carry pretty clear.

[Fyathyrio]

No, doesn't give any insight into her thoughts on the 2A, she's just doing her admin duties. Each justice is responsible for one or more circuit for minnor issues such as this request...Kagen has 6th & 7th.

[randian]

No, doesn't give any insight into her thoughts on the 2A, she's just doing her admin duties. Each justice is responsible for one or more circuit for minnor issues such as this request...Kagen has 6th & 7th.

I disagree. The first extension might be considered a minor administrative task, though it should be pointed out that SCOTUS doesn't treat non-government litigants so nicely. This second extension sure looks like Kagan is actively helping Madigan. A month is a hell of a long time to get nothing done. SCOTUS should punish, not help, that. A third extension, if it happens, will seal the deal in my opinion.

[press1280]

I disagree. The first extension might be considered a minor administrative task, though it should be pointed out that SCOTUS doesn't treat non-government litigants so nicely. This second extension sure looks like Kagan is actively helping Madigan. A month is a hell of a long time to get nothing done. SCOTUS should punish, not help, that. A third extension, if it happens, will seal the deal in my opinion.

She(Kagan) may be helping Madigan stall a little, however, if there's any chance of this whole bill collapsing due to a veto, Kagan is helping US by keeping this case alive.

[Dr.Lou]

[Rail]

It was expected given that the 7th gave a 30 day extension on CCW. If the bill isn't signed or a veto overridden before July 9, then expect cert to be filed.

The reason Quinn is waiting this long to take action is to allow home rule units to pass AWBs if they so desire: so far though, our efforts to keep these ordinances from being adopted are working.

http://deerfield.patch.com/groups/politics-and-elections/p/deerfield-village-board-steps-back-from-assault-weapons-ban

[Paladin]

The reason Quinn is waiting this long to take action is to allow home rule units to pass AWBs if they so desire: so far though, our efforts to keep these ordinances from being adopted are working.

http://deerfield.patch.com/groups/po...lt-weapons-ban

Glad you've stalled the antis.

From the linked article:


Didn't one of the original "Heller 5" deal with this in oral arguments, something about when you hear a burglar breaking in your home at 3am, you have to turn on your nightstand light and put on your reading glasses so that you can unlock the combination lock on your weapon....

Does Ms Rosenthal actually think the government can -- constitutionally under Heller -- require your weapon be disabled at home?

[Baja Daze]

Now that Madigan has received another fu*^#ng extension from "rubber stamp" Kagan this will now force Gura to request an extension from SCOTUS for Woollard. There is NO way Gura is going to file for Cert on Woollard until Cert is either filed or not with Moore!

[Baja Daze]

It was expected given that the 7th gave a 30 day extension on CCW. If the bill isn't signed or a veto overridden before July 9, then expect cert to be filed.

The reason Quinn is waiting this long to take action is to allow home rule units to pass AWBs if they so desire: so far though, our efforts to keep these ordinances from being adopted are working.

http://deerfield.patch.com/groups/po...lt-weapons-ban

That is definitely part of the plan, however it is really more of a side show to the main event. This really is a high-stakes political chess match of Lisa Madigan v. Pat Quinn in regards to the election for Illinois Governor next year and Madigan just punted the ball to Quinn and is hoping he fumbles.

[Baja Daze]

She(Kagan) may be helping Madigan stall a little, however, if there's any chance of this whole bill collapsing due to a veto, Kagan is helping US by keeping this case alive.

+1

Quinn is going to do an amendatory veto which will basically gut and stuff HB 183 changing it into a useless piece of legislation by altering things such as "shall-issue" to "may-issue", mag restrictions, etc. This will please the Chicago machine and make him look good for re-election next year.

Once HB 183 is vetoed, the Illinois Legislature may or may not call a special session, if they do not, HB 183 is dead and the veto stands. The calling of a special session is controlled by Mike Madigan (Dear Lisa's daddy) who is Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives AND Chairman of the Democratic Party of Illinois and John Cullerton who is Illinois Senate President.

The decision to concur with the amendatory veto or vote to override the veto is driven by the bill sponser from the source chamber. So HB 183 is controlled by Brandon Phelps in the Illinois House. Brandon is significantly pro-RKBA and has been the driving force for CCW in Illinois for the last ten years. Now even if there is a special session, which may occur for other political reasons, Madigan controls to allow or NOT allow the motion from Phelps once the Illinois House is convened.

Remember there are a ton of calculated political decisions going into every move here and this is Chicago/Illinois politics at it's finest. Thinking is that Mike Madigan will push for the special session and veto override so HB 183 can take effect and spare Lisa having to file for cert. But this may not happen and even if there is a veto override vote, HB 183 needs a 60% majority to override and may not have those votes now as many of the original "yes" votes that passed HB 183 were from staunch anti's that voted "yes" purely upon backroom deals which may no longer exist. And then you need another 60% vote from the Illinois Senate.

There is a strong possibility HB 183 never becomes law, again a big part of the reason would be the political chess match between team Madigan and Quinn. If not, Illinois would "go off the cliff" with no bill passed and FOID carry may rule the day come July 9th. But this would subsequently force the hand of Lisa and she just may file cert, like it or not, for purely political reasons as Quinn would be calling her out to do so, as to avoid FOID carry and "blood in the streets." And to not file cert here, could really damage Lisa's chances against Quinn for the governorship.

After having read more on Illinois carry than on Calguns the last month, HB 183 is not a very good bill to begin with and in the best interest of those in Illinois and for the 2A nationwide, my thoughts are now to let HB 183 die, go FOID carry in Illinois and have Madigan file cert for Moore. I think that if SCOTUS is going to grant cert to a carry case, Moore is the most likely. So yes, Kagan in her appeasements to Lisa Madigan may ultimately help us get Moore to SCOTUS.

[kcbrown]

There is a strong possibility HB 183 never becomes law, again a big part of the reason would be the political chess match between team Madigan and Quinn. If not, Illinois would "go off the cliff" with no bill passed and FOID carry may rule the day come July 9th. But this would subsequently force the hand of Lisa and she just may file cert, like it or not, for purely political reasons as Quinn would be calling her out to do so, as to avoid FOID carry and "blood in the streets." And to not file cert here, could really damage Lisa's chances against Quinn for the governorship.

The above fails to account for a fact which is fatal to the analysis: "FOID carry" is merely nothing more than a patchwork of inconsistent and arbitrary ordinances spread throughout the state of Illinois, because home rule goes into effect in that case.

That's as good as a blanket ban on carry for the antis for practical purposes, because nobody will dare attempt to carry anywhere except their own home area, and even then it'll only be in areas that are sufficiently friendly to the right that it's not shut down in one form or another. Each area will, when it doesn't simply allow unlicensed carry (which will not be the case anywhere to speak of -- governments in places like Illinois like the ability to control such things far too much to simply let people do what they want), require its own permit for carry, thus making a complete mess of everything. Chicago and Cook County, of course, will not actually issue permits in practice except to "special" people, and that alone may be enough to avoid the 7th Circuit's ire (though if there's any circuit that would object to that, it's the 7th Circuit).

And so, Madigan has absolutely no incentive whatsoever to actually petition for cert. She need only give the appearance of being willing to do so long enough to affect the political balance, but actually doing so incurs major risk to her political career, because she won't have one in the event SCOTUS actually takes the case and upholds the 7th Circuit's ruling. That will kill her political career for good. The national Democratic Party, under the Obama Administration, will make sure of it, as a warning to others of what sorts of chances to not take.

So yes, Kagan in her appeasements to Lisa Madigan may ultimately help us get Moore to SCOTUS.

Certainly we can't get Moore to SCOTUS if the cert clock runs out, but Kagan's help on this (whether or not Kagan actually is doing this out of a desire to get the case to the Court) will almost certainly be for naught.