gunsmith's 2A predictions thread for 2012

[press1280]

please list yours

My predictions are:
Hillary gets VP ticket with Obama - we freaking panic / gun sales hit new high.
Obama reluctantly signs national reciprocity, blameburg panics.
Ruger intro's LCP type gun in .40S&W.
We win important lawsuits ending AWB's nationwide.
Another shooting at a college, that could have been prevented by an armed citizen, brings campus carry into national focus.
TSA starts to monitor everything bringing new round of lawsuits because they cannot understand national reciprocity.

No on Hillary, gun sales MAY hit new high anyway, Obama May sign Nat'l Recip.(Bloomberg would panic in that case), don't know about Ruger, AWB will not be ended in 2012, college shooting perhaps(hopefully NO), NO on TSA lawsuits because they aren't prosecuting people right now-that's what NY and NJ do.
SCOTUS will have a carry case lined up(it may get heard in early 2013 though).
And my dark horse candidate...........Palmer gets out of District Court!!!!!!!!!!

[CCWFacts]

My predictions:

• No gun control laws at the Federal level
• Some things happening at the SCOTUS level start helping us
• The California legislature attempts to pass some minor gun control laws
• California's Democratic machine becomes stronger, the first stage of Detroitification of parts of this state
• The only improvements we, as California gun owners, will see is from court cases
• National recip has an 80% chance of passing somehow
• LTC reform is marching along here, lead by the CGF initiative and court cases
• My California liberal friends in LA will be begging to borrow some firepower from me on the night of November 6. I will ask them if their NRA membership is current. If it isn't, well, there are consequences to every decision.

[Mulay El Raisuli]

What's your prediction for carry cases?

Mine is that Nichols v Brown (the LOC case) succeeds at the District Court level. Gets a speedy & successful hearing at the Ninth & then is fast-tracked to SCOTUS. Where we get a nice little present just in time for Christmas 2012.


The Raisuli

[Left Coast Conservative]

[*]My California liberal friends in LA will be begging to borrow some firepower from me on the night of November 6. I will ask them if their NRA membership is current. If it isn't, well, there are consequences to every decision.

Be sure to verify that they have an HSC. State law requires the recipient of a temporary transfer to have a current HSC. No HSC, no loan of a handgun. Gun laws must ALL be followed!

[RGERBER]

We have two conservative Supreme Court Judges turning 80 during the next Presidential term, if we do not get two more conservative judges to replace them, we will not recognize this country in 10 years.
We need anybody but Obama to appoint those two new justices.

[CCWFacts]

We have two conservative Supreme Court Judges turning 80 during the next Presidential term, if we do not get two more conservative judges to replace them, we will not recognize this country in 10 years.

I AGREE!!!!

This is super-important.

We need anybody but Obama to appoint those two new justices.

Yes. It doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is, Obama's appointments would be unbelievably worse. If Obama can appoint one or two justices, as you say, we won't even recognize this country in ten years.

[ptoguy2002]

We have two conservative Supreme Court Judges turning 80 during the next Presidential term, if we do not get two more conservative judges to replace them, we will not recognize this country in 10 years.
We need anybody but Obama to appoint those two new justices.

I predict (not for 2012, but beyond) that if Ginsburg gets her "future, wiser court," and they do something stupid, that a constitutional amendment would fix all that in fairly short order.

[Rossi357]

2013:
Calif goes shall issue.
Kamela Harris falls down and starts screaming and kicking her heels on the floor.
Gov throws a glass of water in her face.
Kamela Harris goes into rehab.

[RGERBER]

Most major decisions that come from the supreme court are on a 5-4 vote with two more liberal appointees that would be 6-3 the other way. This would be horrific for America as we know it, the 2nd amendment and beyond.

If you are not familiar with Obamas two picks that are already in there so far –
Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan – perhaps you should do some research, two more like this and – well SCARY VERY SCARY

[ccmc]

1. National reciprocity doesn't make it through the Senate.
2. Obama gets re-elected and appoints more anti-2A justices ie SCOTUS will continue to allow the states to regulate carry laws as they see fit.
3. May issue states stay may issue unless they have an electoral revolution like in Wisconsin - the corollary to this is that this has no effect on shall issue states ie they remain shall issue.
4. CA and NY will continue with 10 round mag limits, and will continue to stymie non-residents who want to legally carry there. Those states will continue as anomalies in the area of gun laws ie they will have no effect on states with liberal gun laws.
5. The MSM will continue to ignore F&F.

[randian]

California's Democratic machine becomes stronger, the first stage of Detroitification of parts of this state

That's not a prediction, that's a certainty. When the Democrats gerrymandered California's voting districts this year, they gave themselves a permanent 2/3 legislative majority. Since taxes require a 2/3 majority to pass (notwithstanding the several taxes the legislature illegally imposed this year without a 2/3 majority), there will now be no bar to the Democrats pushing taxes as high as they want. That, combined with the "renewable energy" mandate, cap and trade, the CO2 reduction mandate, and the general flood of business regulation they've been passing lately, is finally going to slaughter the doddering carcass of California's economy.

[CCWFacts]

That's not a prediction, that's a certainty. When the Democrats gerrymandered California's voting districts this year, they gave themselves a permanent 2/3 legislative majority.

The gerrymandering isn't what did it. I don't even know if it was gerrymandered. The fact is, California is now politically dominated by Hispanics who vote overwhelming Democrat and seem to be immune to Republican outreach. District lines may have got them to the magic 2/3 number a few years earlier, but the underlying political-demographic trend made it inevitable and also irreversible. As illegal immigrants' children (who were born here) reach voting age this trend will accelerate.

This is why I don't believe we (RKBA activists) will ever achieve legislative progress in California. Jerry Brown was the last friend we'll ever have at the state level. We may still achieve local-level success in city councils, but that's the only place. California is soon going to be as solidly Democratic as Detroit. Our future leaders are like Kamala Harris, Tom Ammiano, and that kind of group. They will never listen to our arguments no matter how reasonable and persuasive.

Since taxes require a 2/3 majority to pass (notwithstanding the several taxes the legislature illegally imposed this year without a 2/3 majority), there will now be no bar to the Democrats pushing taxes as high as they want. That, combined with the "renewable energy" mandate, cap and trade, the CO2 reduction mandate, and the general flood of business regulation they've been passing lately, is finally going to slaughter the doddering carcass of California's economy.

It's not the business regulations that are fatal, it will be the massive expansion of the public sector and its pension commitments (and the taxes and cuts in services to pay for it) that will Detroitify this state.

We still have a lot of productive and innovative people here (Silicon Valley and all the tech businesses) but so did Detroit at one point.

[vantec08]

That's not a prediction, that's a certainty. When the Democrats gerrymandered California's voting districts this year, they gave themselves a permanent 2/3 legislative majority. Since taxes require a 2/3 majority to pass (notwithstanding the several taxes the legislature illegally imposed this year without a 2/3 majority), there will now be no bar to the Democrats pushing taxes as high as they want. That, combined with the "renewable energy" mandate, cap and trade, the CO2 reduction mandate, and the general flood of business regulation they've been passing lately, is finally going to slaughter the doddering carcass of California's economy.

Agree . . . . 2012 will see the markets plunge dramatically as debt is called in and "hopey-changey" fails to pay up. Gun sales might be the only commidity moving, as short lived as it might be.
keep the powder dry

[jamesob]

i predict the dems will introduce some anti 2nd bills that will go nowhere.

[randian]

It's not the business regulations that are fatal, it will be the massive expansion of the public sector and its pension commitments (and the taxes and cuts in services to pay for it) that will Detroitify this state.

The regulations are going to drive business out even faster than they would otherwise.

As I recall San Jose's pension obligations are running something like 70% of its budget, they're functionally bankrupt, and they're already saying that police won't respond to minor crimes. That's going to make San Jose crime central, as Guliani's emphasis on "broken windows" policing showed in fixing up New York's crime problems. I predict less than 5 years until pensions take all their budget with nothing left for public safety (whose employees are the biggest offenders in the bloated salary and pension sweepstakes) let alone street sweepers and street lights.