Peņa v. Cid (Handgun Roster) **CERT DENIED 6-15-2020**

[surfgeorge]

No payback since Democrats don't control the Senate. They are in a Mexican standoff holding a water pistol and both sides know it.

So you think the Senate committee will question Gorsuch for one day and vote to approve him the same day and then a few days later the full Senate will vote and he'll get at least 60 votes? Less than a week, or two at the most, for the full process of Senate confirmation?

[IVC]

I think Gorsuch will be confirmed with or without 60 votes. I also think that the true battle will be when RBG passes and the Democrats see the folly of what Reid did.

From now on, the only question is who controls the Senate and who controls the White House when a justice must be appointed. There will be no more meaningful way for the minority to exert its will.

[VL221]

I felt like we did extremely well. The judge to the left and the right seemed like they weren't too happy about the roster.

The judge on the right was actually quite knowledgeable about handguns.

What happens when the judge rules against Pena 2-1? Does that mean we are screwed?

[gunuser17]

The bottom line is that it is impossible to read an outcome from the questions by the judges. Sometimes they are trying to point something out to another judge. Sometimes they are throwing a softball. There is no way to know and I have learned to never anticipate an outcome based on the oral argument.

[CandG]

The bottom line is that it is impossible to read an outcome from the questions by the judges. Sometimes they are trying to point something out to another judge. Sometimes they are throwing a softball. There is no way to know and I have learned to never anticipate an outcome based on the oral argument.

Yep, all we can do is guess.

My guess:
Judge on the right - rules in our favor
Judge in the middle - rules against us
Judge on the left - 50/50.

No idea what the result will be, but I think it's a safe bet that it all comes down to what the judge on the left does.

[lowimpactuser]

Yep, all we can do is guess.

My guess:
Judge on the right - rules in our favor
Judge in the middle - rules against us
Judge on the left - 50/50.

No idea what the result will be, but I think it's a safe bet that it all comes down to what the judge on the left does.

And 100% chance of en banc if we get two judges on our side.

[Manic Moran]

Judge on the right seemed to know his way around firearms.

That said, his comparison of the LCI to a seatbelt warning light is pretty reasonable. You always check to make sure your belt is on, the seatbelt light is just a reminder.

[javaduke]

How can you argue against the State wanting to make handguns safer? It is a very reasonable request.

Unless I'm missing something, there's absolutely no evidence that the off-roster handguns that are in common use in the rest of the states, are in fact less safe than those approved by the CA DOJ. I think that's the part that Alan Gura missed when they were talking about cars and airbags. I don't think anyone would argue that airbags and seat belts do save lives, but I think it's pretty obvious that an off-roster 1911 is by no means less safe or more dangerous than pretty much the same 1911 that is still on the roster.

[RussG1]

Microstamp = safer

[happy.thoughts]

Unless I'm missing something, there's absolutely no evidence that the off-roster handguns that are in common use in the rest of the states, are in fact less safe than those approved by the CA DOJ. I think that's the part that Alan Gura missed when they were talking about cars and airbags. I don't think anyone would argue that airbags and seat belts do save lives, but I think it's pretty obvious that an off-roster 1911 is by no means less safe or more dangerous than pretty much the same 1911 that is still on the roster.

Rule and law are created from something that happened (evidence) AND something that is foreseeable to happen or it "makes sense".

MDM
34:03 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-B_ZY9AwDs&t=1s
Was created off the idea that people believed that the handgun was unloaded when the magazine was removed and accidents have happened, "Legislative history has showed us..." - evidence.
CLI
40:29 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-B_ZY9AwDs&t=1s
"its functional...".
41:20 - 41:58
"not to rely on it at all or not to rely on it exclusively?"
"its just good common sense"
- makes sense

Thus, a CA Roster'd handgun IS more safe or less unsafe when compared to a off-roster handgun.

[surfgeorge]

I think Gorsuch will be confirmed with or without 60 votes. I also think that the true battle will be when RBG passes and the Democrats see the folly of what Reid did.

From now on, the only question is who controls the Senate and who controls the White House when a justice must be appointed. There will be no more meaningful way for the minority to exert its will.

So you think the Repubs may go nuclear and reduce SCOTUS appointments to simple majority votes.

Maybe the Dems have figured out that Gorsuch won't make any difference on the SCOTUS as he will be replacing Scalia, but that the next replacement (possibly of Ginsberg) will be the one to fight over.

Fox News headline this morning:

WHERE'S THE OPPOSITION? Gorsuch confirmation fight to begin with barely a whimper from Dems

[IVC]

So you think the Repubs may go nuclear and reduce SCOTUS appointments to simple majority votes.

I am practically certain they would (I've mentioned it in few other threads).

Once Reid went nuclear the game was over - he killed centuries of precedent. It showed the intent and the capability. At this time, there is absolutely no reason to hold back since the other side won't.

It is going to be much more interesting with Bader-Ginsburg's replacement. If Republicans are still in power at the time (knock on wood), Democrats will rue the moment they decided a shortcut around the minority was a good idea.

[IVC]

WHERE'S THE OPPOSITION? Gorsuch confirmation fight to begin with barely a whimper from Dems

Democrats are in a very tough spot because of their election miscalculation, but the silver lining for them is that Gorsuch is replacing Scalia, not Ginsburg or Breyer.

At this time, the smartest political move they can possibly make is "barely a whimper" - Gorsuch *will* be appointed and the real battle *will be* with the next justice. Now it's a game of chicken - can political fortunes change for the Democrats soon enough to avoid the catastrophe (for them) of a SCOTUS that actually applies the Constitution instead of trying to evaluate "quality of a policy."

For us, by far the most important question is whether Trump can win the second term. Eight years would significantly shift the balance of power in this game of chicken.

[GunsInMyEyes]

When is the ruling ?

Oral arguments were just presented and I'm wondering when the ruling comes back and please no long winded answer is a simple question with a simple answer.

[happy.thoughts]

User pulls trigger, gun goes bang.

Projectile leaves the muzzle going very fast, in the direction it's pointed.

How can they be safer if PEOPLE are on the "user" position?

But then you are making a blanket statement that people are destined to fail regardless.