Miller v. Bonta 9th Ckt "assault weapons": Held for Duncan result 1-26-24

[jcwatchdog]

Sure he can. It can also get stayed in Appeals. It still gives an hour and basically exonerates every CA AW in California and allow people to convert all there stuff back to free America style including Roberti Roos guns.

It would basically destroy the CA AW registry.

[curtisfong]

My guess

Chance of Benitez ruling in our favor: 100%
Chance of Bonta appealing: 100%
Chance of 9th Circuit taking appeal: 100%
Chance of initial win in the 9th Circuit: 50%
Chance of eventual loss in 9th (including en banc, etc: the 9th will never let Bonta lose): 100%
Chance of plaintiff appeal to SCOTUS: 100%
Chance of cert: 100% if current makeup, 0% if SCOTUS is rejiggered by then

It is clear what Bonta's strategy should be.

[Sgt Raven]

As to CA position, in the most recent CA brief linked to in this thread, CA AG all but laid down their new arguments. They will argue that AW are not really covered by 2A, because 2A is about self-defense, but AW were designed for offense. That self-defense needs are covered by other non-banned means, therefore AW are fair game for banning. Same argument will be presented in all other "hardware" related cases (mags, roster, etc). Sounds ridiculous, but just watch. All they have to do is to find a sympathetic judge's ear. They are not going to find that in Benitez, but there are plenty others who will embrace their argument and support it with 50 pages of legalese.

The Militia Act of 1792 lays out able bodied males 18-45 were to show up with their privately owned weapons. The 2A was definitely about the AR-15s of their time.




ETA: Remember Trump appointed 10 Judges to the 9th Circuit. The 9th today is not the same as the old 9th...

[newbieLA]

Sure he can. It can also get stayed in Appeals. It still gives an hour and basically exonerates every CA AW in California and allow people to convert all there stuff back to free America style including Roberti Roos guns.

It would basically destroy the CA AW registry.

I hope you're right, but I don't think a "freedom hour" or even a freedom week would allow us to keep our rifles configured the way we'd like if a stay is issued. I believe we'd have to convert them back to meet the limitations of the AWB until the stay is lifted or the judgment to overturn is final.

[kcstott]

I hope you're right, but I don't think a "freedom hour" or even a freedom week would allow us to keep our rifles configured the way we'd like if a stay is issued. I believe we'd have to convert them back to meet the limitations of the AWB until the stay is lifted or the judgment to overturn is final.

Let me ask you, Did you mail your standard capacity mags back to where you got them from and asked them to only return them when the law is struck down??

Sorry it don't work that way. Once the ruling is issued it's game on, regardless of appeal status, all that's needed is a moment of time between the ruling and a new stay pending appeal. I don't believe Benitez is going to issue a new stay. I believe it's to be TRO and PI

[jcwatchdog]

I hope you're right, but I don't think a "freedom hour" or even a freedom week would allow us to keep our rifles configured the way we'd like if a stay is issued. I believe we'd have to convert them back to meet the limitations of the AWB until the stay is lifted or the judgment to overturn is final.

But he could do the same thing as he did with the magazines. He would protect us from enforcement until the case is resolved.

[curtisfong]

But he could do the same thing as he did with the magazines. He would protect us from enforcement until the case is resolved.

Not a lawyer but I feel this is a gamble. Any injunction that Benitez does not immediately stay (like he did the first time around) makes it more likely the 9th will rule for the State, as they will complain loudly at how unfair, unwise, and dangerous it is.

Now, me, I think that doesn't matter. The 9th will agree with Bonta regardless at one point or another... no matter how kindly the 9th treats the plaintiffs initially, eventually the State will prevail, by any means necessary. We've seen them resort to every single re-bite at the apple possible.

So why not swing for the fences?

[Roswell Saucer]

Not a lawyer but I feel this is a gamble. Any injunction that Benitez does not immediately stay (like he did the first time around) makes it more likely the 9th will rule for the State, as they will complain loudly at how unfair, unwise, and dangerous it is.

Now, me, I think that doesn't matter. The 9th will agree with Bonta regardless at one point or another... no matter how kindly the 9th treats the plaintiffs initially, eventually the State will prevail, by any means necessary. We've seen them resort to every single re-bite at the apple possible.

So why not swing for the fences?

No way.

[curtisfong]

No way.

I truly hope I'm wrong. If I am, then it is a gamble to not immediately stay any injunction, as I feel it shifts the odds if Benitez actually enables a freedom week.

[G-forceJunkie]

I would guess they can't magically say "Convert them back", they would probably have to offer a registration period. And bingo, every BBAW and AW all of a sudden gets to be registered with a standard mag release like the Roberti Roos guns.

I hope you're right, but I don't think a "freedom hour" or even a freedom week would allow us to keep our rifles configured the way we'd like if a stay is issued. I believe we'd have to convert them back to meet the limitations of the AWB until the stay is lifted or the judgment to overturn is final.

[riderr]

I don't hold my breath for 9th. Obviously, it will go to SCOTUS for the final consideration. Hopefully, we'll still have majority there in 3 years.

[JiuJitsu]

I honestly don't think it will go back to SCOTUS. The 9th just saw them GVR Bianchi v. Frosh, the other "assault weapons" case, back down to the 4th Circuit a month or so ago. SCOTUS clearly doesn't see these assault weapons bans as constitutional. The 9th - or the 4th - will get bitchslapped if they keep pushing these back up there.

[riderr]

There is no way 9CA en-banc will strike down gun control laws. They will fight till the last breath

[JiuJitsu]

I hope you're wrong. But if that does happen, let's hope for a another monster SCOTUS decision for 2A rights.

[BAJ475]

There is no way 9CA en-banc will strike down gun control laws. They will fight till the last breath

Last breath? That would work for some some of us.