Will ammo prices come down?

[smak28]

AR prices seem to be coming back down but ammo prices are still high. Will the prices come down to pre-panic prices? It seems that stores are all selling at panic prices or did the msrp substantially rise? I do know the AR msrp did rise according to retailers which means it's not coming down. Is it the same for ammo? Any educated guesses instead of WAG (Wild @ss Guess)?

[Javi]

From posts of others that have been through similar, may take one to two(maybe three?) for it to really calm down & back to normalcy. I have also read comments mentioning that it may not be right back at Nov 2012 prices but slightly above it will be the new norm. So maybe instead of $10 9mm brass, it'll be $11 or $12.

[H2H]

not until the end of the year I would think.

[uhlan1]

If the legislature passes their ammo sewage they term legislation, it could simply only enhance what is going on. Then the governor signs and all hell breaks loose.
Much of this is unprecedented in scale and their is no such thing as an educated guess. My dog has as good a chance of guessing the outcome of all of this as any of us.
Hold on...let me ask one of the GSD's, they're smarter.
"Tanzi. Will the ammo situation get better in the next six months? Bark once for...."

[H2H]

add to that the 2014 rifle registration

[russt]

Someday they will. Not tomorrow or next month even. They will never return to as low as per panic was.

[ar15robert]

why would they return to pre panic when they see al these suckes buying at inflated prices?Dumb ones have proven they will pay top dollar

[smak28]

Yeah, it sure doesn't look like it's coming down. The online stores sure have ridiculous prices. Has anyone been to Cabela's recently and can do a price comparison? It sounds like their in-store prices seem to be the best.

[asm_]

why would they return to pre panic when they see al these suckes buying at inflated prices?Dumb ones have proven they will pay top dollar

You hit that one on the nail. We need to wait until the dumb one and suckers run out of money. That is when the price will come down.

B

[bender152]

Below is a post I made in another thread.

Keep in mind, nothing really happened back then. There were no major incidents, it was just all fear of what Obama "might" do. That was enough to keep prices high for some time. This time it's obviously different.

If the "panic of 2008" was any indication, ammo prices will see a gradual decline, but it will be a slow process. And even then, who knows if we'll ever see $300 cases of .223/5.56 again.

Below is a chart of ammo prices from 2004 to 2007. (Taken from ar15.com.)




Unfortunately it doesn't go past 2007, but based on memory, ammo prices skyrocketed in late 2007 as it became obvious Obama would be our next president. Prices were nowhere as bad as they are today, but $400-$500 cases were the norm. This lasted well into 2009.

After that, late 2009, prices slowly leveled off. Cases could be found for less than $400 (a deal at the time). Then they were $375. Then they were $350.

In 2011, prices bottomed out and if you were a smart shopper (waited for sales or coupons), cases could be had for $300... the same price they were in 2007.

Basically, it took 4 years for prices to drop back down to what they were before the panic.

[smak28]

Below is a post I made in another thread.

Keep in mind, nothing really happened back then. There were no major incidents, it was just all fear of what Obama "might" do. That was enough to keep prices high for some time. This time it's obviously different.

Now this is what I'm talking about! I am a numbers guy in the finance industry and can appreciate what you do! Thanks!

This looks like the oil bubble & tech bubble trend. I hope ammo prices will react the same as how the oil & tech stocks tanked. The way it looks, it may...

[gabe123]

For ammo price to go down to pre panic level, all the followings have to happen:

1> all pre-order will have had been filled. This will take a long time. As price go down, more and more people will want to stock up because they got caught with their pants down this time, or just to replace stock.
2> no other panics, mass shooting of kids, terrorist attack, huge earthquake or hurricane.
3> Price of certain metal won't increase significantly.
4> Stores receive ammo faster than they sell, so that they can build inventories. See #1. Stores can only build inventory when their is a surplus, at a given price. As price go down, supply shrink, and demand go up.
5> Current supply is more than current usage. Employees taken off over time, and raw materials bought at market price, not a premium.

Last time, 2007-2008, it took more than a year before one can walk in a gun store / walmart and find ammo on a regular basis. It took almost 2 years before most online store can sell at Walmart's price, and 3 years to beat it. In the 4th year, election/ Newtown happened.

[smak28]

For ammo price to go down to pre panic level, all the followings have to happen:

1> all pre-order will have had been filled. This will take a long time. As price go down, more and more people will want to stock up because they got caught with their pants down this time, or just to replace stock.
2> no other panics, mass shooting of kids, terrorist attack, huge earthquake or hurricane.
3> Price of certain metal won't increase significantly.
4> Stores receive ammo faster than they sell, so that they can build inventories. See #1. Stores can only build inventory when their is a surplus, at a given price. As price go down, supply shrink, and demand go up.
5> Current supply is more than current usage. Employees taken off over time, and raw materials bought at market price, not a premium.

Last time, 2007-2008, it took more than a year before one can walk in a gun store / walmart and find ammo on a regular basis. It took almost 2 years before most online store can sell at Walmart's price, and 3 years to beat it. In the 4th year, election/ Newtown happened.

There are some great analysts in this site! Who knew? Great analysis! #3 & 4 seems like it has begun. Ammo prices will come back down once everyone is done stock piling but can't imagine it will be pre-panic prices. When the stock market goes up in the future, inflation will go up, & retail prices goes up. Sounds like save your ammo $$$ now and purchase when supply is back up and demand is lower, which may just be end of year...BUT...we still have the "Newton" (#2) & "Feinstein" factors....#$@^/&*!!!

[glock7]

Someday they will. Not tomorrow or next month even. They will never return to as low as per panic was.

you get it....

[glock7]

why would they return to pre panic when they see al these suckes buying at inflated prices?Dumb ones have proven they will pay top dollar

people have been sharing your sentiment since january...you and those who think this are wrong. it's new shooters and those who need ammo and those who are stockpiling are the ones who are buying it up. you are right on one count, the prices won't return to pre panic.