Philosophical question about ammo shortage

[APV]

I keep looking for ammo online. It looks like there is less and less available online with sold out labels everywhere. Is there any explanation for this shortage of ammo similar to shortage of toilet paper and paper towels not far in the past? I get the point that in the light of protests and insecurity even the most ultra liberal anti-gun part of population started buying firearms and ammo like crazy. However supply of ammo on the international market is unlimited and there is no shortage of ammunition in the world. So why all this shortage of ammo in the good ole' USA if it takes only few weeks to bring as much as needed from abroad if local production is overloaded. I know this is a stupid question, but is there any smart answer?

[the86d]

AFAIK shipments are delayed from outside the US, if not quarantined too on everything, however runs on guns means a run on ammo, always. Just like every other time Democrats exacerbate every situation...

[Dave Hill]

What boggles my mind is the past 3 years ammo has been for sale at bargain prices and why didn't everyone stock up then? Now people are bragging they bought a case of ammo at 30% higher price than available last year?

[Abenaki]

Another thing to think about is, are the ammo factories running at full capacity?

Because of all the covid crap alot of companies are not.

Next time you go shopping for groceries just check out how many items are missing from the shelves.

I feel for the new gun owners. But, if you have been around for the last couple of shortages.......well, you only have you to blame.


Take care
Abenaki

[jeffyhog]

What boggles my mind is the past 3 years ammo has been for sale at bargain prices and why didn't everyone stock up then? Now people are bragging they bought a case of ammo at 30% higher price than available last year?

I remember reading comments where guys were waiting for ammo to drop 2 more cents per round, then they were going to "back the truck up." Wonder how many of them are complaining about "gougers" now

[JackEllis]

Most people are familiar with Moneyball, the movies about Billy Bean, the Oakland As, and how Billy tried to make the player selection process less dependent on scouting intuition and more dependent on objective measures and statistics.

The fellow who wrote the book that movie is based on as well as a number of other excellent non-fiction books that were turned into movies (Michael Lewis) wrote a follow-on of sorts to Moneyball called The Undoing Project. It ought to be required reading.

Part of the answer to your question is in that book.

As for stuff coming in from overseas, I'm not sure it's a priority.

[APV]

Another thing to think about is, are the ammo factories running at full capacity?

Because of all the covid crap alot of companies are not.

Next time you go shopping for groceries just check out how many items are missing from the shelves.

I feel for the new gun owners. But, if you have been around for the last couple of shortages.......well, you only have you to blame.


Take care
Abenaki

Where did you see complaints in my post? Did you read my post? I stated that regardless of shortcoming of local manufacturing facilities ammo supply in the international market is unlimited so far with vendors ready to sell to whoever is ready to pay. I guess everything in this world is for a reason. I am just trying to understand this reason, for example to predict what will disappear next.

[The War Wagon]

I keep looking for ammo online. It looks like there is less and less available online with sold out labels everywhere. Is there any explanation for this shortage of ammo similar to shortage of toilet paper and paper towels not far in the past? I get the point that in the light of protests and insecurity even the most ultra liberal anti-gun part of population started buying firearms and ammo like crazy. However supply of ammo on the international market is unlimited and there is no shortage of ammunition in the world. So why all this shortage of ammo in the good ole' USA if it takes only few weeks to bring as much as needed from abroad if local production is overloaded. I know this is a stupid question, but is there any smart answer?

I see this is your FIRST ammo shortage.

This has happened, on a greater & greater increasing scale, since the election of '88, in my experience. The buying spree increases each time, and ALWAYS outstrips the initial ability for suppliers & retailers to keep up with.

Add in the Anqueefa/Dumb@$$ Lives DON'T Matter/Cracka's Be Protestin' nonsense, China Virus, the resultant economic uncertainty, and the SlowJoe/BlowHo CCP ticket, and it's an even greater storm, than $#!+bama was.

Scroll through some of these threads, and read the posts of ANYBODY over the age of 50. We'll all say the same thing.

[APV]

I see this is your FIRST ammo shortage.

This has happened, on a greater & greater increasing scale, since the election of '88, in my experience. The buying spree increases each time, and ALWAYS outstrips the initial ability for suppliers & retailers to keep up with.

Add in the Anqueefa/Dumb@$$ Lives DON'T Matter/Cracka's Be Protestin' nonsense, China Virus, the resultant economic uncertainty, and the SlowJoe/BlowHo CCP ticket, and it's an even greater storm, than $#!+bama was.

Scroll through some of these threads, and read the posts of ANYBODY over the age of 50. We'll all say the same thing.

If this is something expected under circumstances then I guess there is nothing to worry too much. My only concern was if it is not a sign of something else, bigger and worse. Sort of nothing is ordinary this year.

[Elgatodeacero]

Lots of misunderstanding of supply chain and manufacturing realities in OP’s post.

Two key errors are 1) there is not an “unlimited” supply of ammo outside the USA, and 2) it takes far longer than “a few weeks” to secure import permits for foreign ammunition.

Combine all that with a worldwide shut down of lead and copper mining for many months, and you have an “instant” ammo shortage.

All should return to normal by Spring or Summer 2021. These shortages have happened with astonishing regularity since around the year 2000.

[APV]

Lots of misunderstanding of supply chain and manufacturing realities in OP’s post.

Two key errors are 1) there is not an “unlimited” supply of ammo outside the USA, and 2) it takes far longer than “a few weeks” to secure import permits for foreign ammunition.

Combine all that with a worldwide shut down of lead and copper mining for many months, and you have an “instant” ammo shortage.

All should return to normal by Spring or Summer 2021. These shortages have happened with astonishing regularity since around the year 2000.

I see.It looks like a reason too. My point about unlimited ammo was based on the pre-corona time when ammo factories in the absence of active large scale military operations do not function at full capacity.

[lmcc0072]

What boggles my mind is the past 3 years ammo has been for sale at bargain prices and why didn't everyone stock up then? Now people are bragging they bought a case of ammo at 30% higher price than available last year?

[The War Wagon]

This is ALWAYS a large part of every election panic as well.

As for me, I saw the writing on the wall, back when Clinton got the nomination. So I started stockpiling THAT summer.

















Of '92.

[APV]

I've found this material confirming stated in this threat regarding domestic manufacturing restrains

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aaronsmith/2020/08/18/amid-booming-gun-and-ammo-sales-arms-makers-aim-not-to-get-burned-again/#61549e5c4382

I cannot find any materials about the situation with imports.

[rsrocket1]

From the gun manufacturers to ammo manufacturers to component producers, there is no reason to "ramp up" production. They learned from previous "shortages" that if you meet demand with supply, when the "shortage" ends, you find far less demand and you have to close down production, lay people off and take a hit on excess production capabilities.

If you keep normal production volume, you hit all your marks, make money and guarantee the full demand for the supply you are producing. Unless you're greedy, why try to capitalize on a spike? You'll wind up selling 2x-3x more AR's or handguns or primers for a little while, then have no demand when things calm down and end up shutting your doors.

From the buyer's standpoint, you can't find stuff, wind up either paying a super high price if you really need it or simply save money. When things calm down, you either have excess pent up money to spend or you are poorer but have something you felt was "essential"

The retail dealer is squeezed in the middle. Yes, they sell all their popular inventory and can even clear out some things that normally collect dust, but if the "shortage" lasts too long, there is nothing to sell and your cash flow stops. I don't blame dealers for raising prices during these times if it slows demand down to where inventory moves at pre-panic prices. I've been to shops where primers were being sold at 2X normal prices but there is a shelf full of them. Street prices are 3X+ normal price and these dealers are not price gouging, they are adjusting the demand based on the supply of a non-essential commodity. This isn't gasoline after a hurricane or food after a devastating earthquake.

The $500 AR that goes for $1500 now will be back down to $500 with no one wanting one even at $500 after this is all over. It happened after 2016, Sandy Hook, Las Vegas.

The one thing you have going for you OP is that you've now experienced at least one side of the cyclical panic. Learn from it and be prepared the next time.