Reloading Components, A Realistic outlook

[fish45]

I disagree. Based on historical patterns, my ammo/component supply predictions are:

If Trump wins, it will take about two years to get back to normal.
No ammo has been produced the last 4 months.
No components have been produced in the last 4 months.
No raw materials (copper & lead) have been mined/recycled in the last 4 months.

Between the pandemic, the riots, and the record breaking sales of guns and ammo, there has been a massive surge on the demand side. Under normal circumstances, the supply slightly out paces demand. When ammo manufacturers restart, they will configure the plants to only make 9mm and 5.56, for awhile, to catch up with backorders, and supply the future demand of all the new Glock and AR owners.

When the ammo companies start manufacturing again in 3 months, after the election, because the pandemic will be declared over, regardless who wins, it will take them at least a year to fill the backorders. This also means, less popular calibers, like .40S&W, .45ACP, .380auto (remember the .380 shortage), .308, and possibly .22lr, and the rest of the hunting ammo, will be put on the back burner, out of the normal production rotation, until the supply of 9mm and 5.56/.223 catch up. So stock up on those calibers now.

Shotgun ammo is another matter, I don't shoot enough, nor have I paid enough attention to the demands or supplies to make a prediction, other than 00 buck will be hard to find for awhile.

The same timeline, the summer of 2022 will apply for powder, as well.



If Biden winsSo your talking about, 2026-2027, at the soonest, before you see supplies. That's assuming he doesn't just executive order all gun illegal and not start a civil war.

My plan, to stock up on premium/flexible 9mm powders, like WW231/HP-38, AA#5, Clays, Universal, or HS-6, and 5.56/.223 powders like Varget, H335, IMR4895, or WW748 right now, as those have not have the massive price spikes, that primers have. Projectiles have gone up a bit, but not 300% like primers.

If you stock up on the right powders now, you can always trade for primers later.

I don't disagree with your Trump winning prediction, but I think your Biden winning prediction is a little exaggerated. Ammo/components will be scarce for the next few years, but the media will slowly put covid on the back burner and when people are less scared things will slowly return to normal. I agree that it will take longer to return to normal than before, but more because there is a larger population of reloaders and new gun owners.

[jtv3062]

My personal rule of thumb on components.

If you shoot 1k a month, you need to have 1 years worth of components.

If you're ultra paranoid, you'll want to keep an administrations worth of components.

If you wear a tin foil hat everywhere, you'll want to keep 10 years worth.


Just my .02

I agree, have at least a years worth of components on hand.

I slipped up and didnt realize I'm out of small pistol primers until I want to start loading .40 and the wonder 9.

[justMike]

I regret being stingy and not buying more components when times seemed good to do so. Always (previously) easy to think that the good supply will keep going. Considering that I don't shoot all that much,
I have a decent, but not really large supply of components. For me, it is what it is, but it could be worse. Feel lucky to have accumulated what I have. Need to learn to make cast boolits, lead isn't in short supply.

A guy who works at a local pawn shop says he has black powder and flints and a Kentucky Long Rifle as a backstop if all else becomes untenable. Might not be a bad idea to become familiar with making your own black powder.
My son has a college friend who does just that. Sort of a cool hobby that in my opinion.

Does anyone frequent gun forums in the Great White North of Canada? Curious what the component situation is like for them. Is it just an USA kind of panic situation, or is it bigger than that. Good to get some perspective on this.

[denpython]

What about those laser cartridges for indoor practice to save on live ammo practice?

[justMike]

Eventually the shortage situation will be resolved the usual way. The products that are in short supply now will become plentiful, but at a higher price.
Lack of demand is the only thing that will bring back any of the prices we used to appreciate.

[golfish]

I can't speak for new gun owners or new handloaders, but, shooters here who have been around a while and have seen similar issues like the current problem should know better. Should have stocked up on ammo and/or loading components some time ago.

Your a bad influence

I think I'm good until 2030

[sirgrumps]

I don't disagree with your Trump winning prediction, but I think your Biden winning prediction is a little exaggerated. Ammo/components will be scarce for the next few years, but the media will slowly put covid on the back burner and when people are less scared things will slowly return to normal. I agree that it will take longer to return to normal than before, but more because there is a larger population of reloaders and new gun owners.

[xfer42]

I disagree. Based on historical patterns, my ammo/component supply predictions are:

If Trump wins, it will take about two years to get back to normal.
No ammo has been produced the last 4 months.
No components have been produced in the last 4 months.
No raw materials (copper & lead) have been mined/recycled in the last 4 months.

Between the pandemic, the riots, and the record breaking sales of guns and ammo, there has been a massive surge on the demand side. Under normal circumstances, the supply slightly out paces demand. When ammo manufacturers restart, they will configure the plants to only make 9mm and 5.56, for awhile, to catch up with backorders, and supply the future demand of all the new Glock and AR owners.

When the ammo companies start manufacturing again in 3 months, after the election, because the pandemic will be declared over, regardless who wins, it will take them at least a year to fill the backorders. This also means, less popular calibers, like .40S&W, .45ACP, .380auto (remember the .380 shortage), .308, and possibly .22lr, and the rest of the hunting ammo, will be put on the back burner, out of the normal production rotation, until the supply of 9mm and 5.56/.223 catch up. So stock up on those calibers now.

Shotgun ammo is another matter, I don't shoot enough, nor have I paid enough attention to the demands or supplies to make a prediction, other than 00 buck will be hard to find for awhile.

The same timeline, the summer of 2022 will apply for powder, as well.



If Biden winsSo your talking about, 2026-2027, at the soonest, before you see supplies. That's assuming he doesn't just executive order all gun illegal and not start a civil war.

My plan, to stock up on premium/flexible 9mm powders, like WW231/HP-38, AA#5, Clays, Universal, or HS-6, and 5.56/.223 powders like Varget, H335, IMR4895, or WW748 right now, as those have not have the massive price spikes, that primers have. Projectiles have gone up a bit, but not 300% like primers.

If you stock up on the right powders now, you can always trade for primers later.

There are small primers out there. No one is shipping them. I was watching ammoseek back in June to check the component availability. I was surprised that I could still order CCI SPP/SRP locally for $23.99/k, Winchester for $22.99/k. I was ordering daily until about July, then it was every few days. Now its available a few hours a week. Yesterday I ordered 1k federal SRP ($23.99), 1k Federal AR match primers ($28.99), 1k Winchester SRP ($22.99). Ive been able to get 40k since June, when ammoseek was showing almost no availability. If they were available, they were over 3 cents a primer.

[LynnJr]

Stack em up until your floor gives way then put in a new floor and keep stacking.