Reloading Components, A Realistic outlook

[Donny1]

I have been reloading for only a few years and not on any huge scale so this is my first experience with a shortage of components.

Considering the amount of shooting I do I have barely a years worth of supplies, primers being the weakest inventory of course because I started stocking up a bit late.

At what point do you stop using ammo for practice or competition? Let's say I normally shoot 5k rounds a year of 9mm and 45. If I have that many primers at the point when I can't buy any more due to supply issues, when do I cut back my shooting. With no way to know when availability will come back. My gut tells me to conserve from day one but the reality is I want to shoot at the same pace. And then there is the feeling that I should always have a reserve for a SHTF scenario, and what does that look like. To me that is just making sure I have enough to protect home and family, not seriously heading for the hills with a stockpile of guns and gear.

I know some have plenty of reserves and if I had tens of thousand of everything I would never think I couldn't ride it out, but I don't think that's the norm.

So what is your mentality when it comes to this? Conserve from the start or act as normal until you are uncomfortable with your reserves, or something else? Also what is your opinion of a timeline for supplies to be available again.

[Ruger15151]

[JackEllis]

You do not want to listen to me but I'll offer my opinion anyway.

Shoot a bit less, say 4k rounds per year for practice and whatever to stretch out your supply. I'm guessing the component shortage will be history by next spring, but it's just a guess.

As for SHTF ammo, how much do you think you're going to shoot if you end up in a gun battle? If you're using a semiautomatic anything, your limiting factor is going to be the number of magazines you have on hand because if things get intense, you won't have time to do more than load a new mag and then keep shooting.

[slayer61]

My wife believes ammo/components will be currency when the SHTF. She encourages me to keep plenty of both on hand.We are good.

[Donny1]

You do not want to listen to me but I'll offer my opinion anyway.

Not sure why you would say that as I am reaching out for others opinions.

As for SHTF ammo, how much do you think you're going to shoot if you end up in a gun battle? If you're using a semiautomatic anything, your limiting factor is going to be the number of magazines you have on hand because if things get intense, you won't have time to do more than load a new mag and then keep shooting.

Agreed. I have multiple platforms AR, 12ga, PCC and pistols with multiple mags at the ready. I don't see a scenario like an old west movie where someone is in the corner loading rifles and putting hot pokers to bullets wounds, lol. If what I have doesn't get it done I will be out of options.

[Corbin Dallas]

My personal rule of thumb on components.

If you shoot 1k a month, you need to have 1 years worth of components.

If you're ultra paranoid, you'll want to keep an administrations worth of components.

If you wear a tin foil hat everywhere, you'll want to keep 10 years worth.


Just my .02

[sirgrumps]

My personal rule of thumb on components.

If you shoot 1k a month, you need to have 1 years worth of components.

If you're ultra paranoid, you'll want to keep an administrations worth of components.

If you wear a tin foil hat everywhere, you'll want to keep 10 years worth.


Just my .02

I suggest the following modification to Corbin Dallas's rules:

My personal rule of thumb on components.

If you shoot 1k a month, you need to have 2 years worth of components.

If you're paranoid, you'll want to keep an administration worth of components.

If you're ultra paranoid, you'll want to keep an 10 years worth of components.

If you wear a tin foil hat everywhere, always try to accumulate more. Never stop adding, especially in good times, and reduce shooting dramatically in bad/democrat admins.


Just my .02

[bruce381]

biden wins they will be short for 4 years, trump will be back in 6 months

[vaka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTcFsdIJ_Xo

This is what gun store owners do when you walk in and ask for Small rifle primers or small pistol primers right now . This shortage feels a lot worse than the 2012 shortage .

[MarikinaMan]

This time, its pretty bad. You can't even buy decent armor, and that on the end of most peoples list.

If I were you, build a little SHTF pile. Reserve that when the SHTF. After which, just use your ammo as you please. Skimp, save, or blow them all away. Whatever works for you. Coz, at the end of the day, you can't change chit. Just be sure you have a few rounds for when you need it. To hell with practice.

[JackEllis]

Not sure why you would say that as I am reaching out for others opinions.

Well I'm a bit of a contrarian when it comes to SHTF scenarios. Back in 2008 an acquaintance of ours tried to convince me the unwashed hordes from San Francisco and Oakland would come marching down the peninsula pillaging, burning and raping. It obviously didn't happen. I know better than to say it could never happen but there are other, much more likely threats to life and property and those are the ones I choose to worry about. Like a wildfire, or idiots who don't look both ways when crossing the bike path I use four times a week.

When it comes to a SHTF stash, you seem to have reached pretty much the same conclusion I did, which is "I need a deterrent but if a big armed gang tries to overrun my home I'm SOL".

I apologize for being snarky.

[Donny1]

I apologize for being snarky.

No worries, I didn't take it that way.

I will say that the current times have made me fortify a bit more. I could hold off a small horde

[sirgrumps]

biden wins they will be short for 4 years, trump will be back in 6 months

I disagree. Based on historical patterns, my ammo/component supply predictions are:

If Trump wins, it will take about two years to get back to normal.
No ammo has been produced the last 4 months.
No components have been produced in the last 4 months.
No raw materials (copper & lead) have been mined/recycled in the last 4 months.

Between the pandemic, the riots, and the record breaking sales of guns and ammo, there has been a massive surge on the demand side. Under normal circumstances, the supply slightly out paces demand. When ammo manufacturers restart, they will configure the plants to only make 9mm and 5.56, for awhile, to catch up with backorders, and supply the future demand of all the new Glock and AR owners.

When the ammo companies start manufacturing again in 3 months, after the election, because the pandemic will be declared over, regardless who wins, it will take them at least a year to fill the backorders. This also means, less popular calibers, like .40S&W, .45ACP, .380auto (remember the .380 shortage), .308, and possibly .22lr, and the rest of the hunting ammo, will be put on the back burner, out of the normal production rotation, until the supply of 9mm and 5.56/.223 catch up. So stock up on those calibers now.

Shotgun ammo is another matter, I don't shoot enough, nor have I paid enough attention to the demands or supplies to make a prediction, other than 00 buck will be hard to find for awhile.

So don’t expect to find SPP and SRP for at least 18 months, if not 2 years. The same timeline, the summer of 2022 will apply for powder, as well.



If Biden wins, since he’ll probably drive the economy and the country in chaos, just like his boss Obama did, if not cause a civil war, don’t expect to see anything for 2 or 3 years after he loses re-election in 2024. So your talking about, 2026-2027, at the soonest, before you see supplies. That's assuming he doesn't just executive order all gun illegal and not start a civil war.

My plan, to stock up on premium/flexible 9mm powders, like WW231/HP-38, AA#5, Clays, Universal, or HS-6, and 5.56/.223 powders like Varget, H335, IMR4895, or WW748 right now, as those have not have the massive price spikes, that primers have. Projectiles have gone up a bit, but not 300% like primers.

If you stock up on the right powders now, you can always trade for primers later.

[MarikinaMan]

^^^ aw phack

[bruce381]

[QUOTE=sirgrumps;24631193]I disagree.

If Trump wins, it will take two years to get back to normal.
No ammo has been produced the last 4 months. No components have been produced in the last 4 months. No raw materials have been produced in the last 4 months.

yeah that could be I do not think about covid closers