How can there be no ARs?

[211275]

I mean, does CA get the short end of the stick or something? How can these major manufacturers like S&W, Sig, Colt etc...be completely out of stock? They dont have product sitting in a warehouse? Not like its handmade goods, how long does it take to produce 5k more rifles? One would think not very long. I dont get how every manufacturer and online store could sell out of every rifle in existence in a weekend. Something is going on...

[Intimid8tor]

You must be new.

First, let's address why they are out of stock: Because everyone and their brother is buy AR rifles right now. Simple.

Now, why don't they have a warehouse full of stock? Because it is expensive to just have a warehouse full of stuff that is not moving.

If they were already running at or near capacity, and then demand triples or quadruples, there is no way to just make it happen. Everything takes time.

I'm guessing you are kicking yourself for not buying one before.

Next time, don't wait for SHTF to prepare for something.

[troysland]

I DROS'ed a Lower on 01/04. The talk of the LA gun buyback was about gloating that over 2000 guns were recovered. The guy behind the counter showed me my dros and that I was in the 6000's on that day alone for CA. It's a Nationwide drought. Stag already stated a 2 year backlog on their website.

[bohoki]

the companies have a certain number that they can produce they are overwealmed by orders and it takes a bit more capital investment to double production i guess we can look on the bright side that there are more ar-15 type gun manufacturers than ever before

the manufacturers have to be careful they don't want to make a bunch and have the demand stop then have to cut jobs an reduce their capacity

and nobody wants to rush out something that is less than their usual quality as a recall could kill a brand

[emy]

I think they are just laying low and staying out of the media . They dont want to flood the market with AR after the shooting. Can you imagine what the media would say? Bushmaster up production to supply the market. Front page.

[211275]

You must be new.

First, let's address why they are out of stock: Because everyone and their brother is buy AR rifles right now. Simple.

Now, why don't they have a warehouse full of stock? Because it is expensive to just have a warehouse full of stuff that is not moving.

If they were already running at or near capacity, and then demand triples or quadruples, there is no way to just make it happen. Everything takes time.

I'm guessing you are kicking yourself for not buying one before.

Next time, don't wait for SHTF to prepare for something.

I am getting one tomorrow, so its all good. I was just curious. Just figured these companies would have been more prepared after 2004 and 2008. I seriously doubt any of these companies demand has reached the levels of say, Apple's when a new iPhone is released. Yet Apple can get product back to their stores and carrier stores within a few weeks. Its been a month since the panic started and places are still saying "months" before they see stock again? How can it take 2-3 months to get restocked on a product thats currently in production and that parts should be readily available for? Odd.

[211275]

I think they are just laying low and staying out of the media . They dont want to flood the market with AR after the shooting. Can you imagine what the media would say? Bushmaster up production to supply the market. Front page.

Now THIS is what I was after and far more likely than they cant make them fast enough. This is a great point, probably the main reason.

[Intimid8tor]

Now THIS is what I was after and far more likely than they cant make them fast enough. This is a great point, probably the main reason.

I'm telling you, you are both wrong. Their livelihood is at stake right now. Holding back is not going to make a difference. They will get all product out the door they can, as fast as they can. Adding equipment to increase production for a spike makes zero sense from a business standpoint since if there is a ban, they will never recoup it and if there is not a ban, it will sit idle once everyone calms down. Also, don't forget that there are many steps to completing a rifle and some of those steps are completed at contractors. That means everyone in the supply chain has to increase their production in order for 1 more rifle to get off the line.

I wish they could do it. I would love nothing more than seeing 5000, 10000, 25000 extra rifles roll out of the warehouses tomorrow.

Not going to happen and it's not because they don't want to.

The iphone analogy doesn't fit in this case. First, apple is larger than most, if not all of their gun makers. They don't make anything themselves, the kids in China do and Iphones only go through rushes when a new one is released and the company has many months to build up stock for those releases.

[dieselpower]

producing an iPhone in Malaysia is nothing compared to manufacturing a firearm on a CNC and assembly line. Most of the major players still hand assemble. Its not an automated process and needs human inspection and correction at every step.

No manufacture makes it all. they all have vendors who supply pieces. Even Colt has to wait for parts to come in from other Colt plants. Stag has to wait for CMT to produce and CMT has major contracts with everyone to supply springs, hammers, triggers...

and then there is the ever looming ban... what company wants to spend their last 1 million dollars making 2 million dollars of inventory they are not allowed to sell?

[Obviously a Plant]

Apple makes computers in China,
We make guns in America. Quality parts require skilled workers-- even when workers are plentiful, skills are not.
Sales have been strong since the middle of last year.
You can plan for an election, not legislation.

On the demand side, you can plan on things getting more rare/ unavailable and/or expensive. Buy what you can afford, when it is available & don't forget to stop and have fun every once in a while...

[211275]

producing an iPhone in Malaysia is nothing compared to manufacturing a firearm on a CNC and assembly line. Most of the major players still hand assemble. Its not an automated process and needs human inspection and correction at every step.

No manufacture makes it all. they all have vendors who supply pieces. Even Colt has to wait for parts to come in from other Colt plants. Stag has to wait for CMT to produce and CMT has major contracts with everyone to supply springs, hammers, triggers...

and then there is the ever looming ban... what company wants to spend their last 1 million dollars making 2 million dollars of inventory they are not allowed to sell?

Same with iPhones. They arent produced in Malaysia though. The workers at one of the Foxconn plants in China make iPhones, not machines. They also have many parts from other companies like Samsung, Sharp, LG etc...same thing. There is no looming ban, thats FUD.

[1MAG1KiLL]

Why should you worry. you don't favor the ar's much anyways.... like your old post titled " whats with the ar15 craze you said "I shot one for the first time the other day (S&W M&P15) and it was ok". i don't know about you, but my 18" home-built ar shoots sub moa @ 100 yards with a freakin cold bore with prvi 75gr bthp and it impresses me every time on how accurate this tiny rifle is. sorry if im bragging but its the truth, and the reason why their all out of stock is because all of this talking about AWB and just bringing up guns the media airs has got first time buyers wanting an AR's. AR's has been around for decades and all of a sudden new booties want them, and you have gun owners that have been messing around with ar's for years buying to flip them, just like the housing market.

[Merc1138]

I mean, does CA get the short end of the stick or something? How can these major manufacturers like S&W, Sig, Colt etc...be completely out of stock? They dont have product sitting in a warehouse? Not like its handmade goods, how long does it take to produce 5k more rifles? One would think not very long. I dont get how every manufacturer and online store could sell out of every rifle in existence in a weekend. Something is going on...

First, this craze of buying has nothing to do with CA. It's happening in every other state as well.

Second, those products sold already. The buying started picking up about a week before the election. You're already over 2 months into the panic buying.

Third, these rifles are not just made from raw materials in a single factory. There are a limited number of companies who make forgings and sell those to more companies to do milling for as their own product or as OEM for other companies. Barrel blanks are made by a small number of companies and get distributed to various companies for finishing as final or OEM product.

Then you've got smaller components. Handguards, stocks, grips(you think noveske, stag, dpms, etc. are all doing their own injection molding? No.). Gas tubes aren't made in house either, neither are bolts, gas rings, triggers, springs, etc.

Then on top of all that, you've got finishing to do. Anodizing, parkerizing, painting, all sorts of other coatings and finishes that can be applied.

With all of those companies doing things for other companies, some have other business that is not gun related that has to be maintained as well.

Aside from a small handful of very large companies(colt, maybe fn, ruger, some others) an AR sitting on the shelf at a gun shop may be branded and assembled by one company, but 20 other companies may have had a hand in it.

Then you've got logistics. Can't get barrels from one end of the country to the other along with all of the other necessary components in the same day you order them. Inventory management means they can't sit there and build guns to sit in a warehouse for a month because they're missing detent springs or something silly.

Ramping up production capacity(more machines, bigger facilities) takes a massive investment of time and money. It can't be done overnight, and what happens if you double the square footage of your factory, buy another million dollars worth of CNC equipment, and then business slows down(or halts due to a ban)?

Same with iPhones. They arent produced in Malaysia though. The workers at one of the Foxconn plants in China make iPhones, not machines. They also have many parts from other companies like Samsung, Sharp, LG etc...same thing. There is no looming ban, thats FUD.

Obviously you've paid little attention to electronics manufacturing over the years. Same thing happens. HDD prices quadrupled when Thailand had flooding a while back because they were making internal components.

At one point DDR2(might have been DDR1) doubled in price because a factory in taiwan making the black plastic to encase the ICs burnt down.

Yield issues with LCD panel manufacturing have caused problems with pricing over the years.

Speculation of optical media consumption is currently set to triple the cost because manufacturers let inventory run low due to guesses about future demand.

Yes, this same type of stuff affects the electronics industry as well. Just not to the same level of problems that the firearm industry has for a multitude of reasons.

[sigstroker]

I am getting one tomorrow, so its all good. I was just curious. Just figured these companies would have been more prepared after 2004 and 2008. I seriously doubt any of these companies demand has reached the levels of say, Apple's when a new iPhone is released. Yet Apple can get product back to their stores and carrier stores within a few weeks. Its been a month since the panic started and places are still saying "months" before they see stock again? How can it take 2-3 months to get restocked on a product thats currently in production and that parts should be readily available for? Odd.

Because Colt and Bushmaster don't have their AR-15's built in a Chinese sweatshop.

[211275]

First, this craze of buying has nothing to do with CA. It's happening in every other state as well.

Second, those products sold already. The buying started picking up about a week before the election. You're already over 2 months into the panic buying.

Third, these rifles are not just made from raw materials in a single factory. There are a limited number of companies who make forgings and sell those to more companies to do milling for as their own product or as OEM for other companies. Barrel blanks are made by a small number of companies and get distributed to various companies for finishing as final or OEM product.

Then you've got smaller components. Handguards, stocks, grips(you think noveske, stag, dpms, etc. are all doing their own injection molding? No.). Gas tubes aren't made in house either, neither are bolts, gas rings, triggers, springs, etc.

Then on top of all that, you've got finishing to do. Anodizing, parkerizing, painting, all sorts of other coatings and finishes that can be applied.

With all of those companies doing things for other companies, some have other business that is not gun related that has to be maintained as well.

Aside from a small handful of very large companies(colt, maybe fn, ruger, some others) an AR sitting on the shelf at a gun shop may be branded and assembled by one company, but 20 other companies may have had a hand in it.

Then you've got logistics. Can't get barrels from one end of the country to the other along with all of the other necessary components in the same day you order them. Inventory management means they can't sit there and build guns to sit in a warehouse for a month because they're missing detent springs or something silly.

Ramping up production capacity(more machines, bigger facilities) takes a massive investment of time and money. It can't be done overnight, and what happens if you double the square footage of your factory, buy another million dollars worth of CNC equipment, and then business slows down(or halts due to a ban)?



Obviously you've paid little attention to electronics manufacturing over the years. Same thing happens. HDD prices quadrupled when Thailand had flooding a while back because they were making internal components.

At one point DDR2(might have been DDR1) doubled in price because a factory in taiwan making the black plastic to encase the ICs burnt down.

Yield issues with LCD panel manufacturing have caused problems with pricing over the years.

Speculation of optical media consumption is currently set to triple the cost because manufacturers let inventory run low due to guesses about future demand.

Yes, this same type of stuff affects the electronics industry as well. Just not to the same level of problems that the firearm industry has for a multitude of reasons.

Makes sense, thanks