Ammo Scare??

[M1A Rifleman]

Tuff times ahead boys, its time to stock-up and bunker down. Ammo, reloading components (primers, powder, bullets, brass), most semi-auto type rifles, tactical rifles and shotguns have been in short supply or non-available since the begining of November.

A buddy I work with has spent approximately $4,000 since November buying guns and ammo as he is afraid of what Obama will do. He has bought five firearms and at least a 1000 rds.

I have had to search high and low for Federal Match rifle primers and now Sierra 168 match bullets are drying up fast.

Bass Pro Manteca has about five boxes of Sierra Bullets left, a couple cans of powder, and no powder and zero primers.

Suppliers across the County are out of Mossberg 590A1's and police PSS rifles, and I hear they are out of M1A's.

[technique]

not at my house

[Zaskar]

The Central Valley is also experiencing this as well. Live in Fresno and WalMart .223 out. Big 5 .223 out. Prices at both are high. A good deal for FMJ 9mm Winchester box of 100 is $32.00. Box of .223 FMJ, 20 count, $12.99. The worst is .38 special, box of 50, FMJ, $17.99 on sale. Ammo in this area is expensive.

[G-Man WC]

Funny, Big-5 had 9mm 100ea Win white box on sale a few weeks ago for $22The deals are out there if you look. -g

[Jeff P]

I just cruised through Susanville, and stopped by Wal-Mart for a few boxes of 9mm. There were lots of open spaces and missing ammo stock. The sales person, Walt said " I don't know when the next order of ammo will be in, and we are losing sales." Maybe he was just jerking me.

[_Odin_]

I called the Walmarts in Mountain View and Santa Rosa. Both were completely sold out of .22LR ammo. One of the women I spoke with said that the "wearhouses are empty - won't be getting anymore in anytime soon" or something to that effect.

The local Big-5 store was also out of 22LR....

Not good.

[beast556]

Same hear went to my local wally world sold out of every thing almost not a singel box of 22lr even. They did have 100rd value packs of 9mm not many left after I left.

[rg_1111@yahoo.com]

Hard times ahead. Everyone's stocking up. Nobody really know what's going to happen in the future.

[CALI-gula]

It's all hype and BS. There are stores and stores of ammo in surplus and in many private hands. If it existed before, it will exist in the future. As soon as our involvement in Iraq dissolves within the next two years, there will suddenly be gobs of ammo on the open market, surplus and otherwise, from our country and others. Turners will be stocking South African and Australian brass cased/FMJ .223 and .308 at 1/2 the price as it is now. 9mm will be plentiful. And for those stating that values of non-ferrous metals like brass and copper are high and causing current ammo costs to be high - well, yes, and those prices will be dropping like lead very soon as well, following the trend of a down-spiraling market.

Ammo prices will be back down to Bush-first-term levels by June 2009.

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[Dr Rockso]

It's all hype and BS. There are stores and stores of ammo in surplus and in many private hands. If it existed before, it will exist in the future. As soon as our involvement in Iraq dissolves within the next two years, there will suddenly be gobs of ammo on the open market, surplus and otherwise, from our country and others. Turners will be stocking South African and Australian brass cased/FMJ .223 and .308 at 1/2 the price as it is now. 9mm will be plentiful. And for those stating that values of non-ferrous metals like brass and copper are high and causing current ammo costs to be high - well, yes, and those prices will be dropping like lead very soon as well, following the trend of a down-spiraling market.

Ammo prices will be back down to Bush-first-term levels by June 2009.

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I keep hearing that surplus ammunition (US and import) are less available due to some of the UN small arms agreements, but I've not heard much in the way of concrete evidence to back that up. Is that just more baseless panic, or has this sort of thing really decreased the availability of surplus ammunition?

[CALI-gula]

People that bought record number of firearms after Obama won, are now buying ammo for their guns.

+

People that think because of obama winning the election, ammunition will not be available in the near future.

=

Fools and their money are soon parted.

The hype is just over the top ridiculous at this point. Store salesmen are abusing it, playing on irrational fears, and most are just short of predicting absolute Apocalypse. It's laughable and silly; yes, there is a fabricated shortage now - merely because of what Fantasma pointed out, along with the idea there will never be more ammo ever again, even in the face of the fact that ammo is really a low-tech product. Sure, get it while you can if you need it now, but the idea that there will be none in the future is silly. No doubt, this is so similar to the recent balloon in the housing market that anyone overextending themselves on guns and ammo at inflated prices is really not thinking too clearly. It's a false frenzy driven by pandemonium and hysteria, and the "keeping up with the Jones' " feast or famine instinct. It's like when individuals eat much more food than normal when seated at a large table of many other people, merely because the frenzy jogs an instinct to dive in and eat the most. This is no different.

There may be a shortage in wholesalers and dealers shelves, but there are plenty of ammo reserves in many warehouses that just haven't reached the shelves yet. And eventually, people currently overextending themselves due to the hype will one day just suddenly stop buying ammo, because they'll look at it all and then say to themselves "What in the hell was I thinking?" and then stop buying. And then the extra not being bought will build up on the shelves, causing prices to come back down, etc.

This hype is ridiculous; it reminds me of the inflated prices just before SB-23 became law, as well as the hype back in 1999 for the Millennium of the inevitable collapse of all Earth as we knew it. Then again in 2001 after 9/11, then again during the scramble for inflated prices on .50BMGs just before AB50 going into effect, etc., etc.




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[CALI-gula]

Good article from over a year ago (8/17/07) - when you read it, think about all the things in the article that note WHY prices have gone up at that time, and realize that all of those factors will soon be going the other way; just like gas prices compared to about 4 months ago. The Obama scare is just that - a scare by the industry, our very own, to get you to buy more than necessary at inflated prices. Temporarily deplete the resource from dealers that bought it a good while ago at 1/4th the price they just charged you? Do you think all dealers are restocking at these prices? No, so the false scarcity ensues. Does the government hold back from the civilian surplus in times of need? Yes. Many small dealers sold off all they had at inflated prices from what they had bought years ago, and are now waiting for it to come back down just like everyone else - not all dealers, but some, just enough to propel the scare.

http://www.themonitor.com/news/ammunition_4561___article.html/prices_sales.html

Less Bang for Your Buck August 17, 2007

DALLAS — The baby needs milk. The car needs gas. The gun needs bullets.
Rising dairy and oil prices grab the attention of shoppers and motorists.

But the increasing price of ammunition — a consumer product the government considers when calculating the rate of inflation— has largely gone unnoticed.

The price increases began after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, then were compounded by a double whammy: the war in Iraq, which pushed up overall demand, and growing industrial powers such as China, which bid up the cost of needed raw materials.

The impact is widespread:

— Ammunition dealers complain of declining sales, as they are forced to pass along rising costs to consumers.

— And hunters and gun enthusiasts, who initially stockpiled ammunition when prices spiked, are now making more of their own or shooting less.

“It’s no good to have the gun without the ammunition,” said ammunition dealer Ken Mitchell. In the Rio Grande Valley, hunters are preparing for duck season, which begins in early September.
Juan Monroy, Wal-Mart sporting goods department manager in Pharr, is waiting to see what will happen with sales. “Customers are asking if ammo is going down because it’s higher than last year when we started,” Monroy said. “Most of people wait to that day to buy it. We’re not sure if they’ll buy the same or if they’ll hold back and not buy as much.”

GLOBAL EFFECT

Manufacturers dramatically ramped up production after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, producing about 1.5 billion rounds last year — more than 3 1/2 times the number manufactured in 2001, said Gale Smith, a spokeswoman for the Army’s Joint Munitions Command Center in Rock Island, Ill. But they struggle to keep up with the demand as troop deployments continue in the Middle East. Military spending on small-caliber ammunition increased from $242 million in 2001 to $688 million in 2006. The ammunition business is also feeling the pinch because of the rising price of global commodities such as copper, brass, nickel, steel and lead.

For instance, China’s torrent of construction has added to its manufacturing capacity. And the country is hungry for resources to feed its growth. The components needed to manufacture ammunition are also used for laying power lines and adding buildings to wider skylines.

(But this is now 2009, and China, like the US, is now starting to feel a crunch in its economy and new development, and will be pulling back soon. )

“We were paying $1 a pound for copper two years ago. Now we’re paying $3 per pound,” said Brian Grace, a spokesman for Minnesota-based Alliant Techsystems, the military’s biggest producer of small-caliber ammunition. “Not all the costs are being passed on. We’ve tried to soften the blow with supply chain management and improved efficiency.”

SALES

Despite those efforts, dealers, hunters and law enforcement officers are feeling squeezed. Mitchell estimates that the volume of his ammo sales, which make up about half of his business, has dropped by more than half in the past two years. Certain rounds, such as .223-caliber — used in the Army’s M-16 and law enforcement’s AR-15 — have become increasingly difficult to find in the civilian market. Supplies of the .308 cartridge, the standard round for NATO and a favorite of hunters for its deadly effectiveness, have also tightened.

Some calibers cost only 10 percent more than a year ago; other varieties have more than doubled in price. When prices started to rise, savvy gun owners stockpiled all they could get, sending prices even higher. Now dealers say that as soon as new supplies come in, customers snap them up.

“It doesn’t matter if it’s 50 cents or $3, whatever’s cheapest gets bought up quick,” said Robby Rucker, a manager at Southwest Ammunition Supply in Mesquite, Texas. In Harlingen, Guns and Goods hasn’t seen much of a change in sales. “I expect it’s had some effect, but not tremendously,” said Paul Rosamond, store owner. “People are still buying ammunition but not to the quantity they’ve had in the past.”

FOR SPORT

Rucker said his wholesalers raise their prices from 3 percent to 10 percent each quarter. He expects more price increases in September. That’s a problem for Karl Pifer, who specializes in manufacturing designer ammunition that costs more but performs better. “The market is moving toward lower-quality and lower-cost ammunition that gets mass produced,” Pifer said. “I try to stick with the prices I’ve got, but when they go up, it’s hard. It hits me before it hits the customers.”

When Pifer received a catalog in the mail last month for materials, he rushed online to place orders on the good deals. But he was too late. An e-mail in his inbox alerted him that prices had gone up since the catalog was distributed. It was, he said, the fourth increase in eight months. Prices of factory-produced ammunition — and increased surcharges for shipping and handling — have gotten so high that more hunters are making their own in a process called hand loading. “Guys on a budget are going back to hand loading with the price of ammo doing what it is,” said Noel Hutcheson, 71, a retired stockbroker who hunts quail and ducks. Sales of ammunition components such as empty cartridges and primers have grown at Rucker’s family-run store each time retail prices for ready-to-use ammunition have gone up. But do-it-yourself ammunition production isn’t cheap either.

Someone making his own shotgun shells is going to spend roughly a third more than last year on supplies, said Don Snyder, executive director of the National Skeet Shooting Association and the National Sporting Clays Association. “There are some people who are shooting less,” said Snyder, whose two groups have about 3,000 members in Texas. “It’s just an additional cost to compete and enjoy our sport. There are a lot of people that jump in and pay the tariff and do it.”

LAW ENFORCEMENT

No matter what the cost, the police need to pay. Law enforcement demand for ammunition grew after 9/ 11 as departments increased their officers’ live fire training. Several police officials said they are paying more for ammunition and experiencing delays for shipments. But everyone insists that public safety has not been compromised. Of eight Texas departments surveyed, none has resorted to giving deputies fewer bullets or pulling guns out of service. The Dallas Police Department, which spends roughly $500,000 annually on ammunition for about 3,000 officers, used to have orders filled in six weeks. Now it takes six to nine months, said Sgt. Paul Stanford, range master for the department. The ammunition used in patrol rifles, identical to what the military needs, costs 35 percent more than two years ago, Stanford said, rising from $84 a case to $114 a case. And a case of 9 mm rounds, the standard for Dallas Police Department service weapons, costs 10 percent more than two years ago — going from $98.75 in 2005 to $108.15.
“We’re still buying bullets because we don’t have any choice,” Stanford said. “It’s like gas. You have to absorb the cost.”

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[jlh95811]

Wait a minute sir....

You say ammo prices will be back to first term Bush prices by June 09?

So if they were this cheap in Bushes second term. How cheap were they in his first? I am an optimist by nature. I too feel that by Summer time it will drop back down. But I'm only thinking 9mm will go down to say $150 a case. Just a tad cheaper than we were seeing about 3 or 4 months ago.

Please tell me why you think they will go this cheap if they know people are willing to buy it at a higher price. We are still a Capitalist Nation.(for now)

[Zaskar]

Big 5 always has great deals on Ammo! To the user that indicated that they were $22.00 per box of 100, they were that price for the Black Friday Sale that they had!! Look at the price now. Today's market price, not last years!

[Sunwolf]

Ammo prices going back down?Not a chance!As all the bailouts continue the dollar will be worth less and less while commodity prices remain the same or go up.