Flu cases drop 95% compared to last year

[toro1]

That is very misleading from the CDC. If you take the average deaths from 2015-2019 as the estimate for 2020, they are expecting 2020 to have LESS deaths than 2019, even though we have +millions population increase per year to account for. # of deaths increases every year.

Very good explanation of this misleading use of averages here:
https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...isleading.html

Thanks for the link. This might explain the sudden increase in CDC reported excess deaths that occurred in late July.

[duenor]

That is very misleading from the CDC. If you take the average deaths from 2015-2019 as the estimate for 2020, they are expecting 2020 to have LESS deaths than 2019, even though we have +millions population increase per year to account for. # of deaths increases every year.

Very good explanation of this misleading use of averages here:
https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...isleading.html

I waited until I had time to give it a fair read. Having done so, the piece is drivel and not worth the handful of internet bytes it is written on. Let's look at the central piece of Kinney's argument:

the CDC's method of averaging the total deaths for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 to calculate expected deaths in 2020 is inappropriate because of the significant variation of the yearly total deaths

Sure, let's look at that data:

Okay, so we see that from 1999 to 2018, there's a somewhat uneven valley right in the middle. Let's look at the data, expanded outwards a little more:

Now why are these charts significant? See the little red boxes? That's the slice of data that this fellow has decided to base his claim that the CDC is intentionally putting out misleading data, on.

From 2010 to 2016, the number of deaths increased by 275,813. Using an arbitrary method as the CDC does, one could estimate deaths in the U.S. to increase by 275,000 every six years or so.

That is biased generalizing by way of confirmation bias. He's taking that one 6 year slice out of the historical record to make the argument that deaths in the US may be expected to increase by 275,000 every six years.
Aside from the very peculiar blinders he's got on, he's essentially making the case that an average of the last three year's deaths is misleading whereas an average of the six years before the last three years is more relevant. Really? 2010-2016 tells us more about what to expect in 2020 than 2017-2019?

Then again, given the infinite wisdom of our "best ever" response, it looks like our current excess deaths is at about 300,000 - so, significantly higher even than his risible estimate of 170,000 over the CDC's 2,832,835.

https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D76;jsessionid=1F397C1BF38EDB1475EDB1927175

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

[cleonard]

The steps we have taken for Covid will basically nuke the flu. It will not be able to reproduce

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[balgor]

That is very misleading from the CDC. If you take the average deaths from 2015-2019 as the estimate for 2020, they are expecting 2020 to have LESS deaths than 2019, even though we have +millions population increase per year to account for. # of deaths increases every year.

Very good explanation of this misleading use of averages here:
https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...isleading.html

A) The Article you linked to is total garbage all by itself

B) The CDC does not estimate the expected deaths by taking averages, only a complete idiot would estimate a time series average that way. It's literally the worst approximation you could reasonably make.

A detailed description of the methodology for estimating excess deaths has been described previously (7). Briefly, expected numbers of deaths are estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns. The average expected number, as well as the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval (the range of values likely to contain the value of a single new observation), are used as thresholds to determine the number of excess deaths (i.e., observed numbers above each threshold) and percentage excess (excess deaths divided by average expected number of deaths). Estimates described here refer to the number or percentage above the average; estimates above the upper bound threshold have been published elsewhere (7).

I seriously don't want to get into describing what a Poisson function is (It's a probability function with a shape that tends to fit "sequential arrival" data) and splines (approximations to curve fit) are, but the CDC does not take a freak'n average of the last whatever number of years to estimate excepted deaths. Damn, you people are willing to swallow complete hokum mixed with balderdash.

"CDC's weekly mortality numbers show this year having less deaths than in 2018, just under the same time as 2019."

I've read a lot of absolute drivel in this forum, but the idea that deaths will be lower this year than last takes 1st prize for most delusional and detached from reality.

[elSquid]

allcausem.jpg

All cause mortality tracker, showing actual deaths by week for this year and years prior:

https://episphere.github.io/mortalitytracker/

-- Michael

[Creampuff]

This is too early to be taking any influenza numbers seriously yet. Even November would be early. Hospitals tend to go into overload mode in January/February when it comes to influenza.

Having said that, I personally think we are going to have less of a flu season because of everybody being masked up (not everybody, but more than a non-2020 year) and social distancing. (again not everybody, but more than a 2020 year). That's not based on any fact, just my personal opinion.

I do also think Mr Grim reaper may come calling for those who have been ignoring basic and/or needed medical care because they have been avoiding their primary care or specialists due to Covid. There will be a cost to society for ignoring good preventative care. We are seeing upticks of cardiac, oncology related issues that could have been avoided by routine exam. I have a feeling we will see more.

[duenor]

Damn, you people are willing to swallow complete hokum mixed with balderdash.

All while demanding that the "tyrants" be locked up for "manipulating us", and deriding those who wear masks as "sheeple".

[duenor]

I do also think Mr Grim reaper may come calling for those who have been ignoring basic and/or needed medical care because they have been avoiding their primary care or specialists due to Covid. There will be a cost to society for ignoring good preventative care. We are seeing upticks of cardiac, oncology related issues that could have been avoided by routine exam. I have a feeling we will see more.

That's quite possible. I have a number of family members who have put off their routine cardiology appointments. Then again, they are the ones most at risk of death if they do catch COVID19. For these people, the ones with heart problems, cancer, diabetes - they are kind of screwed either way. In my own case, I'm very glad that my HMO has been very responsive with video appointments. It's not the best, but it really helps. The doctors are doing their best as well.

As for "safe hospitals", yeah, not so much. The few times I've had to go in this year, it's kind of a zoo. The doctors are well protected but at the front it's just a clustercluck with nurses trying their best to keep order.