I was wrong about a few things...

[sd_shooter]

So it's time for me to admit that I was wrong about a few things:

[1] That covid would be over in a few weeks. It's certainly dragged out much longer than most people imagined. Places like Italy allowed it to burn through quickly, for them it's truly over. Sweden took few precautions and had a relatively high burn, it's mostly over. Here were still on the tail end of the 1st wave.
[2] Summer would kill the covid. Seems this is not really the case. Southwestern states are seeing hospitilizations increase. This is party due to resuming regular care but it is also due to covid.
[3] Yes, this is worse than the Flu. I'll point to Sweden since they did very little to stop the bug. They will end up with 2x as many deaths as the Flu. This is not the Black Death, but it is worse than I expected.

So go ahead Closers, enjoy it while you can




What's next?
- Will there be a vaccine? Possibly, but I don't think we should count on it
- Should everyone run around wearing masks? Still don't think so (except if you're sick, or old & infirmed)
- Should we continue the shutdowns/lockdowns? Absolutely not
- When will this be over? It's already over for Italy. We should open up and be done with this. Lock up grandma & grandpa in their nursing home and take good care of them while this sweeps the land.
- Is there a worldwide conspiracy? Highly unlikely
- Are the US MSM and liberals making the most of this crisis? Absolutely

[duenor]

I don't think anyone here wants to gloat about being right, but kudos to you for manning up and admitting when you're wrong.

It is healthy to argue. I'd hate to live in an echo chamber where all I hear is what I agree with and what I like. We should be disagreeing, even vehemently and feverently. it's what keeps us safe - if we are all on the same page all the time, then we will all be wrong together all at the same time. the american concept that dissent is sacred is what sets us apart from authoritarian regimes like china and russia, and what forms a major part of why americans lead the world in innovation.

so let's keep the argument alive, and hopefully with so many of us looking over our shoulders in so many different directions we'll be able to see the next twist coming before it hits us.

[GeorgeMG]

Honestly I just don't care anymore. Once this thing went political, no information could be trusted. So I just tuned out. This thing is here, there won't be a vaccine, it's pretty dangerous for some parts of the population. Ok, take that all into account, make your own decisions on how you want to live, and go with god. I'm heading to Vegas next week, hell, I don't even gamble. But I'm really looking forward to a giant steak at my favorite place far from the Strip, and having many drinks at an actual bar. I'm just exhausted on the endless discussion, and I'm sick at how easily the American populace rolled over and gave up many of their actual Constitutional Rights.

[VictorFranko]

So it's time for me to admit that I was wrong about a few things:

[1] That covid would be over in a few weeks. It's certainly dragged out much longer than most people imagined. Places like Italy allowed it to burn through quickly, for them it's truly over. Sweden took few precautions and had a relatively high burn, it's mostly over. Here were still on the tail end of the 1st wave.
[2] Summer would kill the covid. Seems this is not really the case. Southwestern states are seeing hospitilizations increase. This is party due to resuming regular care but it is also due to covid.
[3] Yes, this is worse than the Flu. I'll point to Sweden since they did very little to stop the bug. They will end up with 2x as many deaths as the Flu. This is not the Black Death, but it is worse than I expected.

So go ahead Closers, enjoy it while you can




What's next?
- Will there be a vaccine? Possibly, but I don't think we should count on it
- Should everyone run around wearing masks? Still don't think so (except if you're sick, or old & infirmed)
- Should we continue the shutdowns/lockdowns? Absolutely not
- When will this be over? It's already over for Italy. We should open up and be done with this. Lock up grandma & grandpa in their nursing home and take good care of them while this sweeps the land.
- Is there a worldwide conspiracy? Highly unlikely
- Are the US MSM and liberals making the most of this crisis? Absolutely

Wait, what???

You were really serious with all your overly obsessive daily postings these past months?

No need to eat crow, if nothing else you've been entertaining!
Hopefully you can relax a little bit now before something else pushes you into the deep end.

[duenor]

Wait, what???

You were really serious with all your overly obsessive daily postings these past months?

No need to eat crow, if nothing else you've been entertaining!
Hopefully you can relax a little bit now before something else pushes you into the deep end.

haha, I would've thought the same except I have a good friend who is like a carbon copy of sd & the other san diego guy.

now if el tardo says he might have miscalculated, i'll really flip out because I'm pretty sure he gets quite the chuckle from the responses to his announcements and declarations.

[cleonard]

Hey, you are acting like a scientist. Not one of the pseudo scientists, but a real one.

Come up with a hypothesis/theory.
Gather data.
See if the data agrees. If not change the hypothesis.

What usually happens around these parts is people only accept data that agrees with their tightly held preconceived ideas. You are bucking the trend.

The crow part isn't from being wrong. It's from pushing what you thought was true so forcefully on some who disagreed. Not sure that applies to smashy as he does the same constantly, but I don't remember him ever starting a thread like this when proven incorrect.

Masks? I think we wouldn't need them is people would just isolate themselves when sick. Would probably cut the flu way down too. It will never happen though. Some have to work. Taking sick days isn't a viable option for many.

If the choice is masks or back to the lockdown, I think masks are preferable.

[sd_shooter]

Wait, what???

You were really serious with all your overly obsessive daily postings these past months?

No need to eat crow, if nothing else you've been entertaining!
Hopefully you can relax a little bit now before something else pushes you into the deep end.

Mostly just bored!

My company lockdown has been extended through the end of the year

Can't wait for the election season to truly get started

[bruss01]

Thank you SD_Shooter, it takes a man to stand up and correct himself when it's warranted.

Agree with you about easing lockdowns, in areas where there is not a huge spike in cases. We need to re-open and yes that means more cases. If hospitals are overwhelmed, we need to ease up on that though.

Masks - optional for those who are well, mandatory for anyone with symptoms (don't care if it's tree pollen or cat hair, if you're coughing and sneezing, bundle up buttercup!). Strongly recommended for anyone who is in, or who lives with someone who is in, a high-risk category. Strongly recommend hi-risk folks stay at home as much as practical until second wave is over. Just my take on what's appropriate given what we know now.

The more folks who catch it and recover means the more herd immunity we build. A mask and hand sanitizing are not a guarantee you won't be exposed, but it's been shown that a smaller exposure gives your body more time to build it's own antibodies before the virus gets too entrenched, meaning you're likely to have a mild case instead of ending up in the hospital.

[bruss01]

Thank you SD_Shooter, it takes a man to stand up and correct himself when it's warranted.

Agree with you about easing lockdowns, in areas where there is not a huge spike in cases. We need to re-open and yes that means more cases. If hospitals are overwhelmed, we need to ease up on that though.

Masks - optional for those who are well, mandatory for anyone with symptoms (don't care if it's tree pollen or cat hair, if you're coughing and sneezing, bundle up buttercup!). Strongly recommended for anyone who is in, or who lives with someone who is in, a high-risk category. Strongly recommend hi-risk folks stay at home as much as practical until second wave is over. Just my take on what's appropriate given what we know now.

The more folks who catch it and recover means the more herd immunity we build. A mask and hand sanitizing are not a guarantee you won't be exposed, but it's been shown that a smaller exposure gives your body more time to build it's own antibodies before the virus gets too entrenched, meaning you're likely to have a mild case instead of ending up in the hospital.

[Sousuke]

What's next?
- Will there be a vaccine? Possibly, but I don't think we should count on it
- Should everyone run around wearing masks? Still don't think so (except if you're sick, or old & infirmed)
- Should we continue the shutdowns/lockdowns? Absolutely not
- When will this be over? It's already over for Italy. We should open up and be done with this. Lock up grandma & grandpa in their nursing home and take good care of them while this sweeps the land.
- Is there a worldwide conspiracy? Highly unlikely
- Are the US MSM and liberals making the most of this crisis? Absolutely

- Will there be a vaccine? Possibly, but I don't think we should count on it
I agree, but if we don't get one, measures will have to continue through the fall/winter/spring and maybe another fall/winter.

- Should everyone run around wearing masks? Still don't think so (except if you're sick, or old & infirmed)

If you are refering to N95 style okay for older people, but the point of the lesser fabric masks is based upon the majority of the population doing to limit community spread.

- Should we continue the shutdowns/lockdowns? Absolutely not
I agree unless an area were to see the start of an exponential explosion. Sweden didn't really see this, so at this point the risks are lower at least until fall.

- When will this be over? It's already over for Italy. We should open up and be done with this. Lock up grandma & grandpa in their nursing home and take good care of them while this sweeps the land.

Europe appears to have gone through the first wave (the US and Sweden have not - the effects linger). But there is evidence another will start in the fall.

- Is there a worldwide conspiracy? Highly unlikely

There was a Chinese Conspiracy though.

[cleonard]

My company lockdown has been extended through the end of the year
d

Same here, I've been semi-officially told to work from home till January. Even then I expect out office to close. I was in a small satellite office with only about 13 people. We are getting the work done so why pay for expensive office space. Call it permanent social distancing.

[harbormaster]

Honestly think you were more right then wrong. Just because society over blew it doesn't make it right. I thought it was weird it was such a big story back in January and it wasn't until March they took it too the next level. You were not the worst - look at post #2 by dabear?

https://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showthread.php?t=1583896

[NorcalGSG]

Plus if herd immunity was a thing, wouldn't the flu be over by now also? Nope, and the flu shot doesn't work either because there is so many different strains and mutations that scientists haven't been able to make a reliable vaccine yet for flu or Aids. I doubt Covid-19 will be any different, but we can hope it will react more like Measles of something that does have a reliable vaccine available.

[balgor]

So it's time for me to admit that I was wrong about a few things:

[1] That covid would be over in a few weeks. It's certainly dragged out much longer than most people imagined. Places like Italy allowed it to burn through quickly, for them it's truly over. Sweden took few precautions and had a relatively high burn, it's mostly over. Here were still on the tail end of the 1st wave.
[2] Summer would kill the covid. Seems this is not really the case. Southwestern states are seeing hospitilizations increase. This is party due to resuming regular care but it is also due to covid.
[3] Yes, this is worse than the Flu. I'll point to Sweden since they did very little to stop the bug. They will end up with 2x as many deaths as the Flu. This is not the Black Death, but it is worse than I expected.

So go ahead Closers, enjoy it while you can




What's next?
- Will there be a vaccine? Possibly, but I don't think we should count on it
- Should everyone run around wearing masks? Still don't think so (except if you're sick, or old & infirmed)
- Should we continue the shutdowns/lockdowns? Absolutely not
- When will this be over? It's already over for Italy. We should open up and be done with this. Lock up grandma & grandpa in their nursing home and take good care of them while this sweeps the land.
- Is there a worldwide conspiracy? Highly unlikely
- Are the US MSM and liberals making the most of this crisis? Absolutely

I give you credit for updating your priors and not stubbornly holding to your position despite all evidence to the contrary. Keep reading and learning, we're a long way from this pandemic being over.

[cleonard]

Plus if herd immunity was a thing, wouldn't the flu be over by now also? Nope, and the flu shot doesn't work either because there is so many different strains and mutations that scientists haven't been able to make a reliable vaccine yet for flu or Aids. I doubt Covid-19 will be any different, but we can hope it will react more like Measles of something that does have a reliable vaccine available.

The flu mutates into a form that evades your existing immune defenses. It basically becomes "new" to your immune system. This never happens with measles, so that vaccine you had as a kid still protects you decades later.

We have no idea yet if this will be the case for Covid. In general novel viruses mutate into something less serious that spreads easier. No one knows if this will be the case fof SARA-CoV2, but we can hope. If it stays as deadly as it is, mutates so you get it every few years, and we don't get a vaccine, this virus will probably cut our life expediencies down by several years. That will suck, but it will make retirement planning easier.