Speaking up against the Covid Shutdown is Verboten!

[snapsound]

Because the worst-case estimates are what drove the decisions to lock down.

Would you like it if you car told you it was over heating even though everything was fine?

Worst-case estimates involve future possibility.

"Everything is fine" is a statement about the present.

"Everything is fine" can be true until the worst case estimates become a reality.

Actions being triggered from worst case estimates makes sense in some situations, like when you can't be completely sure about whats going to happen, like a novel virus.

If your car told you it would overheat if you kept pushing on the gas, but its not overheated yet, would you still push on the gas?

??????

[snapsound]

Don't bother it won't help. Some people CANNOT or WILL NOT recognize an abstract future threat no matter what logic they are presented with. Abstract = chicken little.

[numpty]

It says in block letters, "worst case estimates."

Why are you complaining that the worst-case assumptions are not consistent with real world?

Because the worst-case estimates are what drove the decisions to lock down.

Would you like it if you car told you it was over heating even though everything was fine?

It's like statistics, they can be manipulated to say just about anything. Except with projections it's much easier to just make stuff up.

It seems somewhere between very few and very many will die of Covid-19 depending on how we react. Shut everything down in an abundance of caution. Yeah, who determines it? Those in power, plain and simple.

There is disagreement within the "expert" community even, so just pick what you want that fits your narrative and present it as fact, or expert modeling, or experts say or whatever. Our country is so divided that we may never come back together, but I certainly don't believe anything that is reported by the MSM. Maybe Trump was duped by the swamp creature Fauci, or maybe Trump is part of the swamp and this is just a big shenanigan to desensitize the world to the new order that is inevitable.

I tend to believe that about half of this country voted for Trump because they believe in the power of the people, not in the power of our government.

[NYT]

I'm not arguing to my opinions. The ER doctors in question misapplied their principle of "extrapolation" and wound up with an estimate of IFR that is provably inconsistent with all data we have on the subject. That is, indeed, a fact.

could you note your source showing inconsistencies? if you truly are a data scientist, you are well aware that IFR has been grossly misrepresented across the world by health care agencies.

[as_rocketman]

Because the worst-case estimates are what drove the decisions to lock down.

Would you like it if you car told you it was over heating even though everything was fine?

Funny you mention that, I work in system fault management...

Worst Case Analysis is a well-established discipline, with branches in reliability engineering, military strategy, public health and safety, and economics. The approach was used correctly in this case. The only problem is when people unfamiliar with the discipline use it incorrectly. This is a common problem these days.

WCA was one factor that led to current Federal recommendations and State actions, but not the only one by a long shot. And those responses are open to criticism. But they were, nonetheless, rational.

[snapsound]

It's like statistics, they can be manipulated to say just about anything. Except with projections it's much easier to just make stuff up.

It seems somewhere between very few and very many will die of Covid-19 depending on how we react. Shut everything down in an abundance of caution. Yeah, who determines it? Those in power, plain and simple.

There is disagreement within the "expert" community even, so just pick what you want that fits your narrative and present it as fact, or expert modeling, or experts say or whatever. Our country is so divided that we may never come back together, but I certainly don't believe anything that is reported by the MSM. Maybe Trump was duped by the swamp creature Fauci, or maybe Trump is part of the swamp and this is just a big shenanigan to desensitize the world to the new order that is inevitable.

I tend to believe that about half of this country voted for Trump because they believe in the power of the people, not in the power of our government.

Anyone who can do basic arithmetic can see that a virus a couple more times deadly than the normal flu and as or a little more contagious could overwhelm the tiny healthcare system in western countries and cause a couple million deaths.

Whether it really happened, whether there is a conspiracy, whether its fake news, or whether lockdowns matter or not, that starting idea is not a stretch.

Its also possible its very real and so is the conspiracy to use it for whatever political reasons there may be.

The least likely option is that its mostly fake and its a big conspiracy.

[sd_shooter]

Your car does tell you that you will run out of gas. But then something happens.... You refill the gas tank. It didn't run out of gas...…

Do I need to keep going here?

What if the gas gauge is broken? It tells you there's 50% left, but all of a sudden you run out in the middle of West Texas.

Want me to keep going?

The government estimates for the Covid were off by orders of magnitude. Cold hard fact. (And they had SIP baked in)

[as_rocketman]

could you note your source showing inconsistencies? if you truly are a data scientist, you are well aware that IFR has been grossly misrepresented across the world by health care agencies.

My source was the video itself. I described the problem in the other thread. I've also discussed more widespread underestimation of the IFR in yet another thread.

You'll have to explain what you mean about gross IFR misrepresentation in more detail, I'm not sure what you think an accurate estimate is nor how that bears on this particular video.

[snapsound]

What if the gas gauge is broken? It tells you there's 50% left, but all of a sudden you run out in the middle of West Texas.

Want me to keep going?

The government estimates for the Covid were off by orders of magnitude. Cold hard fact. (And they had SIP baked in)

You don't have to use the government estimates. You can use your own. Take the normal flu, make it a couple times more deadly, make it a little more contagious. Thats all it takes to reasonably get to a couple million dead.

[numpty]

Anyone who can do basic arithmetic can see that a virus a couple more times deadly than the normal flu and as or a little more contagious could overwhelm the tiny healthcare system in western countries and cause a couple million deaths.

Whether it really happened, whether there is a conspiracy, whether its fake news, or whether lockdowns matter or not, that starting idea is not a stretch.

Its also possible its very real and so is the conspiracy to use it for whatever political reasons there may be.

The least likely option is that its mostly fake and its a big conspiracy.

And anyone with basic common sense can see that the data is incomplete so it may in fact NOT be a couple more times more deadly that the normal flu.

The least likely option is that whatever it is, that it is NOT being used for political gain/power. Otherwise we'd all be in general agreement. Remember, Trump is a racist for shutting down travel, and killing people for not doing enough.

See, neither one of us has disagreed with the other one, but the implications are very different.

[FatCity67]

Doctor is on National News right now.

[snapsound]

And anyone with basic common sense can see that the data is incomplete so it may in fact NOT be a couple more times more deadly that the normal flu.

The least likely option is that whatever it is, that it is NOT being used for political gain/power. Otherwise we'd all be in general agreement. Remember, Trump is a racist for shutting down travel, and killing people for not doing enough.

See, neither one of us has disagreed with the other one, but the implications are very different.

Casual observation can tell you that something about this virus is different. Theres really only two things that matter, mortality rate and contagiousness, and mortality rate is more important than this case because its contagiousness is obviously at least as bad as the normal flu.

Extrapolate from there. I dont see how that isn't completely reasonable.

And yes, go ahead and say that all the news is fake and nothing out of the ordinary happened in NY, Italy, or Spain. Okay fine. But thats a separate idea.

But if you accept that something more than normal happened in those places, you can come to the conclusion this could be dangerous. It doesn't take much. And thats what they were seeing a couple months ago. Its not the type of thing you can just wait and see about. Once it jumps to the USA and people start dying, the curve is OBVIOUS.

Whether its twice as deadly as the normal flu or 5 times, you can't really determine that in the beginning. You have to err on the side of caution. Twice as deadly might just be absorbed. 5 times could easily turn into 20 times with hospitals getting overwhelmed.

I dont see how this is not logical, rational, and a conclusion anyone could come to independently, about past decisions (Feb, March).

When you start mentioning Trump, politics, etc..okay sure, those things will almost certainly be involved and everyone will take advantage of this to some extent. But that doesn't mean the basics weren't there. Both can be true.

[Transient]

Casual observation can tell you that something about this virus is different. Theres really only two things that matter, mortality rate and contagiousness, and mortality rate is more important than this case because its contagiousness is obviously at least as bad as the normal flu.



Extrapolate from there. I dont see how that isn't completely reasonable.



And yes, go ahead and say that all the news is fake and nothing out of the ordinary happened in NY, Italy, or Spain. Okay fine. But thats a separate idea.



But if you accept that something more than normal happened in those places, you can come to the conclusion this could be dangerous. It doesn't take much. And thats what they were seeing a couple months ago. Its not the type of thing you can just wait and see about. Once it jumps to the USA and people start dying, the curve is OBVIOUS.



Whether its twice as deadly as the normal flu or 5 times, you can't really determine that in the beginning. You have to err on the side of caution. Twice as deadly might just be absorbed. 5 times could easily turn into 20 times with hospitals getting overwhelmed.



I dont see how this is not logical, rational, and a conclusion anyone could come to independently, about past decisions (Feb, March).



When you start mentioning Trump, politics, etc..okay sure, those things will almost certainly be involved and everyone will take advantage of this to some extent. But that doesn't mean the basics weren't there. Both can be true.

Extrapolate this. COVID-19 is more contagious because it's new to our bodies. Our bodies have never experienced it before, so they don't know how to protect from it. Give it time. If you survive the first round your body will have defenses.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[sd_shooter]

Casual observation can tell you that something about this virus is different. <snip>

Different? Different mostly because of the chicken-little reporting.

So there's a 'bad' flu year, 80k dead. Do you even hear about it? Perhaps, it will likely be on the 2nd page of an old skool newspaper or on the 'medical news' tab of an MSM site. Most people won't be aware and if they knew they wouldn't care. 80k old people passing because of the flu is totally accepted.

Now we have a 'new' bug. Only the novelty is actually interesting.

The rest:
- Does is really kill more? Possibly. Sweden hasn't even reached typical flu numbers yet although it's close. (In the end they'll likely surpass the flu by a little bit - but not 2x, 3x, 4x etc)
- Are the numbers real? Doubtful. Both covid and the flu end up causing death via pneumonia. The numbers are murky because of the deliberate over-counting directed by the CDC and WHO and also the financial incentives provided by the government.
- Has this happened before? Yes, recent example is H1N1. 'New' yet barely made the news over here.

Appropriate response might have been to tell everyone wash their hands and stay home if they're sick. Instead we were told "Millions Will Certainly Die."