One third random test positive.

[skirunman]

As long as we are extrapolating:

36 million people infected with normal flu last year

say this COVID-19 virus is twice as contagious and 5 times deadlier (R0 = 2.6 and mortality rate 0.5%)

These assumptions are wrong based on the data from the Santa Clara study. Their estimated case mortality rate for COVID-19 is approximately the same as annual influenza or approximately 0.1%. R0 is not a static number as it changes based on mitigation efforts. It is certain that R0 for COVID-19 is higher than the flu, but we don't know how much and whatever the number it is it does not seem to be high enough that it has caused our hospitals to be overwhelmed, except maybe for 1 or 2 hospitals in NYC.

Remember the entire reason for the stay at home orders is simply to slow the spread so hospitals don't get overwhelmed. It will not stop the spread or the eventual deaths that will come. Only a vaccine, which may or may not come in 1-2 years, the virus weakens, or we come up with much better treatments for those that do become seriously ill will change the eventual number of those that will die.

As COVID-19 is statistically only deadly for the elderly, > 65 mostly with comorbidities, or those that are immune compromised, we should focus mitigation efforts on quarantining these people and everyone else should get back to work. Also the flu kills more younger people than COVID-19.

The blanket stay at home orders have resulted in 22M unemployed in the US. The human misery, death and economic cost of this overwhelms the benefit of these blanket stay at home orders by orders of magnitude. I have showed these calculations in other threads.

So say 71 million people infected (it would actually be exponentially higher)

This is likely going to happen no matter what we do, just how quickly.

Thats 355,000 dead...but really the healthcare system would definitely be overwhelmed so death rate would climb to say 3%

Thats 2.1 million dead

So yeah looks like lockdown makes sense

Bogus assumption that the death rate would climb by 30x based on the healthcare system being overwhelmed. We have not generally overwhelmed hospitals and even if this were to happen, no way that that we are saving 30x or even 3x more people with our current treatment regimes.

The lockdown makes no sense with the data we have now. The cure is way worse than the disease.

[Spartan301]

BS!

As long as we are extrapolating:

36 million people infected with normal flu last year

say this COVID-19 virus is twice as contagious and 5 times deadlier (R0 = 2.6 and mortality rate 0.5%)

So say 71 million people infected (it would actually be exponentially higher)

Thats 355,000 dead...but really the healthcare system would definitely be overwhelmed so death rate would climb to say 3%

Thats 2.1 million dead

So yeah looks like lockdown makes sense

Put down the calculator, go outside and absorb some vitamin D!

[Sousuke]

Ok lets extrapolate for Chelsea. They have a population of 40,000 so .30* that is 12,000 people.

There are 39 deaths in chelsea as of a day ago. I'm going to go ahead and round up to 40 (its probably slightly higher today but whatever).

40/12000 = .33%.

[The War Wagon]

As long as we are extrapolating:

36 million people infected with normal flu last year

say this COVID-19 virus is twice as contagious and 5 times deadlier (R0 = 2.6 and mortality rate 0.5%)

So say 71 million people infected (it would actually be exponentially higher)

Thats 355,000 dead...but really the healthcare system would definitely be overwhelmed so death rate would climb to say 3%

Thats 2.1 million dead

So yeah looks like lockdown makes sense

[2shotjoe]

As long as we are extrapolating:

36 million people infected with normal flu last year

say this COVID-19 virus is twice as contagious and 5 times deadlier (R0 = 2.6 and mortality rate 0.5%)

So say 71 million people infected (it would actually be exponentially higher)

Thats 355,000 dead...but really the healthcare system would definitely be overwhelmed so death rate would climb to say 3%

Thats 2.1 million dead

So yeah looks like lockdown makes sense

New death rate is .02%.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Featureless]

As long as we are extrapolating:

36 million people infected with normal flu last year

say this COVID-19 virus is twice as contagious and 5 times deadlier (R0 = 2.6 and mortality rate 0.5%)

So say 71 million people infected (it would actually be exponentially higher)

Thats 355,000 dead...but really the healthcare system would definitely be overwhelmed so death rate would climb to say 3%

Thats 2.1 million dead

So yeah looks like lockdown makes sense

say the dog hadn't stopped to pi$$

he woulda caught the rabbit

[five.five-six]

That data does not contradict what I said.

I can think lockdown makes sense without liking it.

Try again?

If 33% already have it or had it (110M) and there's been 38,917 (including blood clots) then once everybody in the country has caught it, we are less than 120,000 deaths.

[OleCuss]

The study in the OP is too small and I'm betting it wasn't well randomized. It also only looked at one small geographic area.

Basically, it sucks as a study and is only good for saying we need more and better studies.

The one out of Santa Clara was also not broadly applicable.


Overall, however, it does appear many more people have likely had the infection than was suspected. That appears to be a common theme and is probably true (but this was also assumed prior to the studies).

Now we need some really well-done studies.


And yeah, I think the cost of shutting down the economy is probably too high. And I don't mean just the cost to the economy but also to health - poverty is not a healthy circumstance and we are pauperizing people.