Good news! USA Covid death growth rate slowing...

[boris badinov]

Birx already admitted that.

Birx didn't say that. Someone on FOX news said that Birx said that. What she actually said was quite different.


Across the country, EMT's, physicians and nurses working on the front lines are telling us that the covid19 death toll is being under-reported. This has been reported from news outlets on the right, left and center.

[skirunman]

Across the country, EMT's, physicians and nurses working on the front lines are telling us that the covid19 death toll is being under-reported. This has been reported from news outlets on the right, left and center.

This is purely anecdotal so is of little value in understanding actual COVID-19 deaths. Makes a good story for "media impressions" though.

[theLBC]

https://twitter.com/chrisbergPOVNOW/status/1247680994821509121

doctors are told to list cause if death as covid, even if it isn't.

[zhyla]

zhyla, are you a believer yet? A couple days ago you guessed we'd hit 20 death by Thursday. Understandable if you think we're doubling every few days but I don't think that's the case.

We're at 14.6k right now. Pretty bad day. 20k by midnight on Thursday? I don't think we'll quite get there. Based on the last few days of doubling calculations... maybe sometime late Friday/early Saturday.

We're averaging nearly 5 days doubling over the last 3 days, so we may be seeing real slowing.

[theLBC]

We're at 14.6k right now. Pretty bad day. 20k by midnight on Thursday? I don't think we'll quite get there. Based on the last few days of doubling calculations... maybe sometime late Friday/early Saturday.

We're averaging nearly 5 days doubling over the last 3 days, so we may be seeing real slowing.

how many actually died from covid19? half?

[the_tunaman]

Birx didn't say that. Someone on FOX news said that Birx said that. What she actually said was quite different.

[saxman]

Sure, let's give that statement the benefit of the doubt (the 30% number comes from a non-peer reviewed study that said it could be up to 30%) and assume that 30% of the negatives are false positives and add it on to the high end of the tested positives of 16%...

That still only means that 46% of those tested due to the "stringent testing standards" applied prior to testing are actually positive.

Would you consider 46% success to be a high degree of certainty?

To add a little context, I dove a bit more into where than 30% number comes from. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20021493v2

That isn't that 30% of tests were false negatives, it's that 30% of positive tests, as confirmed by bronchoalveolar lavage fluid collection were negative on other tests. So that 16% of positives makes up 70% of the actual positive cases, so extrapolating that out, 22.9% of total tests were positive (either actual positive or false negative).

So I'll re-ask the question with that in mind. Would you consider 23% to be a high degree of certainty?

[zhyla]

how many actually died from covid19? half?

That literally doesn't matter for measuring rate of growth. By mathematical definition.

[small hole shooter]

I thought the death rate was slowing down because old people just can't walk fast at all, even with a walker. Did not read all nine pages.

[five.five-six]

Birx didn't say that. Someone on FOX news said that Birx said that. What she actually said was quite different.


Across the country, EMT's, physicians and nurses working on the front lines are telling us that the covid19 death toll is being under-reported. This has been reported from news outlets on the right, left and center.

EMT's? eh? Does Dixie McCall hop on the phone to tell the EMT "that last one died"?

[Funbaby]

We have only just begun. This thing is roll around for months.

[boris badinov]

This is purely anecdotal so is of little value in understanding actual COVID-19 deaths. Makes a good story for "media impressions" though.

It's not anecdotal, though. Their firsthand accounts are tied to actual numbers.


A sharp spike in 911 calls for sudden cardiac arrest deaths and cardiac emergencies directly coincides with onset of and rise of CoVid19.

[boris badinov]

EMT's? eh? Does Dixie McCall hop on the phone to tell the EMT "that last one died"?

Not everyone who dies from Covid19, dies in a hospital.

Just FYI, when someone calls 911, ER doctors and nurses don't get in their cars and drive the emergency. Instead, large white vans with sirens and flashing red lights called ambulances show up EMT's. Often the patient is already dead when the ambulance arrives.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fdny/at-home-covid-19-deaths-may-be-significantly-undercounted-in-new-york-city-idUSKBN21P3KF

[boris badinov]

To add a little context, I dove a bit more into where than 30% number comes from.

You're also ignoring non-laboratory related causes of false positive testing.

Was the swabbing properly performed? Was the test kit handled and packaged properly? How much time passes from time of swabbing to time of lab analysis?

***

All physicians are bound by a professional code of ethics. Listing cause of death, particularly in the midst of a pandemic, is not the kind of thing that reporting physicians take lightly.

If you ask an actual physician, recording a 'presumed' or 'probable' cause of death still requires a high bar for determination. The criteria for eliminating other potential comorbidities as a primary cause of death aren't simply random guesses. If the 'presumed' or 'probable' determination cannot be made according to exacting processes of elimination, the cause of death will be left as "undetermined".

[sd_shooter]

You're also ignoring non-laboratory related causes of false positive testing.

Was the swabbing properly performed? Was the test kit handled and packaged properly? How much time passes from time of swabbing to time of lab analysis?

***

All physicians are bound by a professional code of ethics. Listing cause of death, particularly in the midst of a pandemic, is not the kind of thing that reporting physicians take lightly.

If you ask an actual physician, recording a 'presumed' or 'probable' cause of death still requires a high bar for determination. The criteria for eliminating other potential comorbidities as a primary cause of death aren't simply random guesses. If the 'presumed' or 'probable' determination cannot be made according to exacting processes of elimination, the cause of death will be left as "undetermined".

I think that code of ethics was formally thrown out the window by Birx just a couple days ago. She admitted that they're being very "lenient" when declaring cause of death during this intentionally induced panic.

Birx: "The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that"

Translated: "If you had a runny nose when you had your heart attack... it's the covid"