Good news! USA Covid death growth rate slowing...

[LBDamned]

in AP math whizkid speak, "Reasonable degree of certainty" means literally anything he wants it to mean for any segment of time he likes.

Yesterday it was: 9,600 > 10,000.

Earlier it was "we are talking decrease in doubling time".

At the time of posting it's increase in linear death rate.

In a few moments it will mean something exciting and new.

Whatever it takes to drive the agenda.

[boris badinov]

WTH?

"Suspected or likely"--> "Reasonable degree of certainty"---> it is acceptable to write "presumed" or "probable."

You take all that and say "presumed to HIGH DEGREE of certainty."

It is a high degree of certainty.

Covid19 tests may still not be readily available in every corner of the country.

But there are very specific criteria with which to narrow the cause of death that show up on lung x-rays (interstitial fibrosis and ground glass opacity) and in blood oxygen and Co2 levels. As well they have rapid tests which quickly verify or eliminate other common viral infections as the cause of death.

Without available testing, the extent to which they are able to determine cause of death as CoVid19 is a high degree of certainty.

[LBDamned]

I'd really suggest that everyone watch this if you have 10 minutes, it is a week+ old, but still worth the time.
Dr. Ioannidis - Stanford University- Why We Don't Have Reliable Data Surrounding COVID-19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUvWaxuurzQ

Great informative video.

Thanks for sharing

I agree. But sadly, many agenda driven misfits wont take the time to watch it - or if they did, wouldnt accept it.

[five.five-six]

laff

Doctor? Shmuctor!

The guy never had AP HS math, Berkley or even wife friend nurse...

Basically he's GED

[Kestryll]

Looking at some of the recent posts it seems I have to remind people that civility IS A REQUIREMENT here.

Consider yourselves reminded.

[boris badinov]

Looking at some of the recent posts it seems I have to remind people that civility IS A REQUIREMENT here.

Consider yourselves reminded.

Roger that.

Wilco.

[five.five-six]

I haven't said it here but I had said it other places earlier that the diamond princes would probably be our best early indication of what to expect just because of the degree and extent of absolute control. The biggest difficulty would be that I expect to see the age demographic to be heavily weighted toward retirement age people.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUvWaxuurzQ

[saxman]

It is a high degree of certainty.

Covid19 tests may still not be readily available in every corner of the country.

But there are very specific criteria with which to narrow the cause of death that show up on lung x-rays (interstitial fibrosis and ground glass opacity) and in blood oxygen and Co2 levels. As well they have rapid tests which quickly verify or eliminate other common viral infections as the cause of death.

Without available testing, the extent to which they are able to determine cause of death as CoVid19 is a high degree of certainty.

For someone who was swearing up and down that 100% of cases were test confirmed a few hours ago, you sure seem to suddenly know a lot about something the CDC specifically didn't call a "high degree of certainty".

Could it be that you're just making things up as you go along and are presenting them as facts?

[sd_shooter]

zhyla, are you a believer yet? A couple days ago you guessed we'd hit 20 death by Thursday. Understandable if you think we're doubling every few days but I don't think that's the case.

https://ncov2019.live/data:

12857 today

I had guessed we'd hit 20k by Sunday but it's likely going to be even further out than that!

The curve has been flattened, hospitals have plenty of beds, there are plenty of respirators, N95 masks are being churned out in the millions.

If the excuse for the shutdown was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed then we've achieved it. If the real reason is to strangle the economy - then there's no end in sight.

[five.five-six]

zhyla, are you a believer yet? A couple days ago you guessed we'd hit 20 death by Thursday. Understandable if you think we're doubling every few days but I don't think that's the case.

https://ncov2019.live/data:

12857 today

I had guessed we'd hit 20k by Sunday but it's likely going to be even further out than that!

The curve has been flattened, hospitals have plenty of beds, there are plenty of respirators, N95 masks are being churned out in the millions.

If the excuse for the shutdown was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed then we've achieved it. If the real reason is to strangle the economy - then there's no end in sight.

The real reason is orange bad man. We have another 4 years of it.

[boris badinov]

For someone who was swearing up and down that 100% of cases were test confirmed a few hours ago, you sure seem to suddenly know a lot about something the CDC specifically didn't call a "high degree of certainty".

Could it be that you're just making things up as you go along and are presenting them as facts?

I'm not making it up.

'Presumed' and 'probable" are determinable to very high degree of certainty-- through process of elimination.

You still can't get a CoVid19 test without first fulfilling a stringent set of criteria for testing:
Exhibition of symptoms, viral testing, recent social history.

Many people are still being denied CoVid19 testing because they do not meet the criteria threshold.

Through process of elimination--- symptoms, non covid viral testing, social history, lung imaging, and blood o2/co2 levels, etc--- "presumed" and "probable" are very straightforward determinations for CoVid19 cause of death with very high degrees of certainty.

[viet4lifeOC]

The "stringent set of criteria for testing" is in place because there's NOT ENOUGH TESTS. It has nothing to do with "degree of certainty." Anyone doubt once these tests become more available..the criteria for testing will change..that the criteria for testing will be less stringent? For example, when covid19 hit the US...one of the criteria was recently visited China or had recent contact with someone from China. That criteria will change because the disease spread makes that information/criteria less relevant.

Can we run patients through a gaunlet of tests to increase the degree of certainty for the cause of death? Yes, but that's the point...not enough staff, tests, time, resources, etc

Causes of death due to Covid19 increases while Influenza/pneumonia decreases (lower than expected)...no possibility of misdiagnosed?

Regarding "lung imaging"

not specific to the disease and can be seen with other infections should serve as an alert to radiologists that COVID-19 may actually be present in certain can be helpful in suggesting spectrum of clinical manifestations and clinical course in COVID-19. And the clinical presentation of the virus can overlap

Like most studies...it's peppered with qualifiers because that's what you do to be objective and to protect your reputation. "High degree of certainty" not so much.

[five.five-six]

and.... we are at doubling every 4 days and seems to be tapering off

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

[saxman]

You still can't get a CoVid19 test without first fulfilling a stringent set of criteria for testing:

So would you say that the people that are being given tests are already presumed to be positive to a high degree of certainty?

[five.five-six]

So would you say that the people that are being given tests are already presumed to be positive to a high degree of certainty?

Laff