Good news! USA Covid death growth rate slowing...

[viet4lifeOC]

Meno377,

Is this what you're looking for:

Screenshot_2020-04-07-18-53-43-1.jpg

And this....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mprnews.org/amp/story/2020/04/03/change-to-death-certificates-could-boost-covid19-counts

And this from article:

Presumptively until postmortem tests can be done. This is unlikely because 1) staff shortage and 2) lack tests

[five.five-six]

Berkley APmath pivot in3...2...1.. GO!

[boris badinov]

Berkley APmath pivot in3...2...1.. GO!

2,000 covid deaths today.

The death rate still ain't slowing down.

[Steve1968LS2]

2,000 covid deaths today.

The death rate still ain't slowing down.

That's because the peak isn't set till April 16th..

You do know what "peak" means.. right? Maybe ask your wife

[five.five-six]

But that is based IF your WHOLE example is true 100%. You stated this as fact. It's not.

You are talking to a person who spent an entire page arguing that 9,600 is more than 10,000.


That's the level of academic dishonesty you are dealing with.

[saxman]

Were not discussing asymptomatic infections.


We're discussing reported CoVid19 deaths.

100% covid19 deaths are attributed to positive CoVid19 tests. That's just a medical fact.

This actually isn't a medical fact. It's actually a factually incorrect statement. Per the CDC, the death count attributed to covid are "Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1."

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Presumed cases are those that aren't confirmed by tests.

[240z]

100%? Fact? Not So Much

Were not discussing asymptomatic infections.


We're discussing reported CoVid19 deaths.

100% covid19 deaths are attributed to positive CoVid19 tests. That's just a medical fact.

The asymptomatically infected arent dying of CoVid19. They aren't even part of this discussion.

However, there are many.Covid deaths at arent being counted because the victims die at home without ever having been tested.

You really should stop throwing around that 100% attribution rate.

The CDC begs to differ:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

From the preface:

Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS.

Pay particular attention to Note 1 and the word "presumed" below:



Clearly, the death data does not come only from 100% confirmed tests for the virus, as one does not need to presume if one has a 100% confirmed test result to rely upon when filling out the death certificate for submission to the NCHS.

I am sure that there are deaths due to Covid-19 that go uncounted for many reasons, but there is no way to know that number.

[meno377]

Meno377,

Is this what you're looking for:

[ATTACH]887366[/ATTACH]

And this....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mprnews.org/amp/story/2020/04/03/change-to-death-certificates-could-boost-covid19-counts

And this from article:



Presumptively until postmortem tests can be done. This is unlikely because 1) staff shortage and 2) lack tests

Basically yes.

[viet4lifeOC]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUvWaxuurzQ

Great informative video.

Thanks for sharing

[boris badinov]

That's because the peak isn't set till April 16th..

You do know what "peak" means.. right? Maybe ask your wife

See thread title, maybe?

[saxman]

Note that the CDC also states this when discussing their numbers:

"Pneumonia deaths are included to provide context for understanding the completeness of COVID-19 mortality data and related trends. Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia deaths in the absence of positive test results, and pneumonia may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition. Thus, increases in pneumonia deaths may be an indicator of excess COVID-19-related mortality."


Now, I read that as an increase of pneumonia deaths not attributed to covid would be an indication of an under attribution of deaths to covid.

By that logic, if we were to see an abnormal drop in pneumonia cases, could it be that there's an over attribution to covid?

[tsmithson]

[viet4lifeOC]

"[C]ompelling within a reasonable degree of certainty" is a very high bar for reporting "presumed" or "probable" death. Under the current circumstances, the likelihood that a reported "presumed" or "probable" covid death is not Covid19 related would be rare......... I'll grant that not all of those will be Covid+ tests-- as some of them will be "presumed" to high degree of certainty, but it's safe to conclude

WTH?

"Suspected or likely"--> "Reasonable degree of certainty"---> it is acceptable to write "presumed" or "probable."

You take all that and say "presumed to HIGH DEGREE of certainty."

LoLz


It never said that. Lozlz

This is ridiculous

[boris badinov]

skirunman. thanks for your post.

the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty

"[C]ompelling within a reasonable degree of certainty" is a very high bar for reporting "presumed" or "probable" death. Under the current circumstances, the likelihood that a reported "presumed" or "probable" covid death is not Covid19 related would be rare, because the tests for common infections that might be mistaken for Covid19-- such as the flu-- are readily available at hospitals and clinics with results available in less that 15 minutes.

The death toll is now reported at, 12,841 (1,970 deaths on April 7th) . I'll grant that not all of those will be Covid+ tests-- as some of them will be "presumed" to high degree of certainty, but it's safe to conclude that nearly all 12,970 are Covid19 related.

[five.five-six]

in AP math whizkid speak, "Reasonable degree of certainty" means literally anything he wants it to mean for any segment of time he likes.

Yesterday it was: 9,600 > 10,000.

Earlier it was "we are talking decrease in doubling time".

At the time of posting it's increase in linear death rate.

In a few moments it will mean something exciting and new.