.22 shortage mystery solved! (supposedly)

[crufflers]

.22lr ammo is has been and still is available from online retailers, one just has to know who they are. Places like ChampionShootersSupply periodically has various kinds of match ammo available. Must buy in case lots but mostly its at pre-panic prices or close to it. Around $550-$600 per case for SK or Wolf, same price the gougers are selling bulk ammo for. Can't afford a case, get a buddy or two to split a case. CSS with alert you by email when it comes in.

True. I don't watch for rimfire ammo like I used to, but when I take a look there is usually not much available unless it is for an hour or a day before selling out still. Pretty amazing.

If I needed any, I would be all over those (5000 round) 10 can cases of SK Magazine sitting at Graf's for $429 plus freight.

[Fetterly Powders]

S d

You havent been on that side for very long then. Powder, Primers, Bullets, Shotgun Ammo, Rifle Ammo, Pistol Ammo, and Rimfire Ammo have increased every year. If prices havent changed from supply and demand, then Varget would still be $14.99 a pound at PowderValley. We are buying more components and ammo and arms then ever in America. Ask any reloader or avid shooter thats been at this for a while if prices have changed and see what they say.

Edit: I can remember not that long ago when that same brick of Federal 525 was $8.99. So unless the distributors were taking enormous losses back then, the prices have gone up. And that huge of an increase does not come from inflation over ten years. If distributors were selling them $8.99, that means you would be getting them far cheaper closer to $5. If that is a close number, that means distributor cost is at an increase of 350%.

Big difference between a yearly price increase and supply and demand hikes. You can count on at least a buck a year on powder. Been buying lots of personal ammo and powder over the years and can also remember. Seems like there was a $4 increase that stayed with the 22. Know too that that 17.60 price is to a non ammo guy so I don't get great ammo deals.
Doug

[Fetterly Powders]

S d

Components involved in manufacture, shipping costs including fuels, and their wages are what seems to drive up my yearly costs. Nothing else. I have a choice as to what I charge from here. And when things get better I hope to maintain my list of customers by charging the same, good times or bad.
Doug

[MrSam]

It was never really a mystery...more like a cycle of positive reinforcement on the flippers end:

1. Flipper wakes up at 5-6 A.M in order to purchase ammo at local walmart, big 5, and even some lgs' (Flipper loses: Time, and temporarily money)

2. Flipper gets online and posts ammo for sale, at twice the price he/she paid (Reward: Regain money, or in this case, gaining a profit. Loss of time has been justified)
(At this point, the flipper has been positively reinforced; they associated their loss of sleep and temporarily, money, with a profit).

3. Flipper realizes that his/her method works. Flipper also made a profit on last transaction, and can therefore afford to purchase ammo at MSRP and flip it for a profit.

4. Flipper repeats process

Simply put...the fact that many of us are buying from these ammo flippers is part of the reason for the shortage.
Stop buying from flipper --> Flipper takes a hit (profit, sleep, time) --> flipper reattempts to sell, but fails (loses more profit, sleep, and time) --> flipper eventually (hopefully) stops --> (hopefully) more 22lr on shelves

[james758]

Supply and demand have EVERYTHING to do with the 22lr shortage.

Most people don't realize that the 22lr shortage started a LONG TIME AGO. About a decade ago you found ads in the back of gun magazines (periodicals) for a gun that "Looks like an MP5 but shoots 22lr" and everyone laughed at it. Then when our first Irish president won the election the panic buying happened and ALL of the major calibers (9mm, 45, 223, 308) were out of stock overnight. The price on those went through the roof and the only thing that anyone could afford to shoot was 22lr. For about a month after you could still find 22 but then people started to hoard it as well. People started buying up 10/22's and EVERYONE came out with a "tacticool 22" like the Sig 522 and the S&W AR-15/22's.
Go ahead and poll gun owners and you'll find that not everyone has a shotgun or bolt action 308 or an AR or 45 or a revolver... but EVERYONE has a 22. And I mean EVERYONE. Normally, its the second gun people buy.
Production capacity has not kept up with the 22 ownership rates.
In case I forgot to mention, EVERYONE has a 22 these days. Even when its only a little cheaper than 9mm, its still cheaper and more people shoot it.

Flippers have nothing to do with it. Though it is just annoying that some knot head sells a 550 bulk pack that used to cost $18 for over $60 and some bigger knot head gets in line to buy it, then the first knot head tries to sell it for $70 and he gets away with it.

[zoid52]

I remember buying bricks of Winchester wildcat for $8 in the late 90's.

[billybob_jcv]

I remember buying bricks of Winchester wildcat for $8 in the late 90's.

Yup - Big 5 almost always had either Winchester, Remington or Federal on sale for under $10/brick. Those days are GONE. I suspect that just the shipping costs to deliver the ammo from the manufacturer->distributor->retailer have increased significantly since then. It will be interesting to see where the new equilibrium price eventually settles out - I'm guessing ~$30/brick?

[ptgarcia]

The ammo is out there if you take the time to look. Between February and July of this year I have purchased 15,000+ rounds of 22LR from Cabela's, mostly one box at a time, never paying more than 7.5 cents/rd shipped to my door. While its not 3.5 cents/rd like 2 years ago its better than 10+ cents/rd so many places are charging.

[303lithgow]

Even as a capitalist, I do not chalk the .22lr ammo flipping phenomenon up to "simple supply and demand." Your perspective is overly simplified and does not address the market distortion that is created by "flippers" who buy everything up in order to insert themselves into the supply chain as another middleman.

One of the "flippers" posted a thread a few weeks ago to defend his actions as a "service" to buyers. He was rightfully pummeled into silence in short order.

A true organic shortage occurs when the actual market consumption rate outpaces the rate of manufacturing. This did not happen here. People have not been buying more .22 ammo and storing / shooting it for their own needs than the manufacturers provide. This has been the result of opportunists who camp and stalk ammo aisles and buy it up simply to flip it. I would not be surprised if most of these folks don't even own a .22lr or even shoot at all.

If it was just simple supply and demand, Walmart or Cabelas would never put a limit on what you could buy. As long as they were moving units, they would not care otherwise. They realized that a few undesirable types were distorting the market and trying to make a living by inserting themselves uninvitedly into the supply chain.

I don't think it is illegal, I just think it is revolting. If you want to have a good laugh, take a look at the abundant supplies of .22lr that are for sale in the CG marketplace. The flippers are on their way to taking a haircut with all their hoarded wares and I am going to love it.

Flipping is part of capitalism. We may not like it but its not unique to ammo.

[usmcchet9296]

Supply and demand have EVERYTHING to do with the 22lr shortage.

Most people don't realize that the 22lr shortage started a LONG TIME AGO. About a decade ago you found ads in the back of gun magazines (periodicals) for a gun that "Looks like an MP5 but shoots 22lr" and everyone laughed at it. Then when our first Irish president won the election the panic buying happened and ALL of the major calibers (9mm, 45, 223, 308) were out of stock overnight. The price on those went through the roof and the only thing that anyone could afford to shoot was 22lr. For about a month after you could still find 22 but then people started to hoard it as well. People started buying up 10/22's and EVERYONE came out with a "tacticool 22" like the Sig 522 and the S&W AR-15/22's.
Go ahead and poll gun owners and you'll find that not everyone has a shotgun or bolt action 308 or an AR or 45 or a revolver... but EVERYONE has a 22. And I mean EVERYONE. Normally, its the second gun people buy.
Production capacity has not kept up with the 22 ownership rates.
In case I forgot to mention, EVERYONE has a 22 these days. Even when its only a little cheaper than 9mm, its still cheaper and more people shoot it.

Flippers have nothing to do with it. Though it is just annoying that some knot head sells a 550 bulk pack that used to cost $18 for over $60 and some bigger knot head gets in line to buy it, then the first knot head tries to sell it for $70 and he gets away with it.

I agree
I switched to .22LR along time ago
1/2 the guns I own are .22

[MrSam]

I know plenty of people who don't own a .22. Saying that flippers have nothing to do with the shortage is untrue.
Let's say there are 3 flippers who go to a specific walmart every morning. They know that walmart only receives 10 bricks per shipment. That said, they split the ammo, 3 boxes each. That leaves 1 box on the shelves, for the average joe to purchase. If "flippers have nothing" to do with the shortage, than we could assume that in the example above, more than 1 average joe would be able to purchase a brick of .22. This however, is clearly not true.

[usmcchet9296]

I know plenty of people who don't own a .22. Saying that flippers have nothing to do with the shortage is untrue.
Let's say there are 3 flippers who go to a specific walmart every morning. They know that walmart only receives 10 bricks per shipment. That said, they split the ammo, 3 boxes each. That leaves 1 box on the shelves, for the average joe to purchase. If "flippers have nothing" to do with the shortage, than we could assume that in the example above, more than 1 average joe would be able to purchase a brick of .22. This however, is clearly not true.

I would never say anything definitive other than you will die someday and the IRS sucks but I think its safe to say a majority of people own a .22 firearm if they own a forearm at all and that .22 firearm sales have increased over the last decade as a secondary weapon because of the growth a tacticool .22's. Because of the growth of .22 firearms and the increase of hoarders and speculators .22 ammunition is at a premium and it is also safe to say ammunition manufacturers have not increased capacity enough to meet the increased sales of .22 firearms in some cases.

[ptgarcia]

A 22 rifle is especially popular with those who have younger children. I have a couple boys and each has his own 22LR rifle. And since they took mine I'm on the hunt for another for myself.

[Dan_Eastvale]

Since the lack of available .22 is nationwide, the failure of SB53 will have no impact.

[MrSam]

"Most people own 22's" is a statement I can agree with. But not "all" gun owners own a .22. I will agree though, supply is rather low relative to the demand needed.