Ammo shortage explanations - math?

[mad1]

Hi all

As a first-time gun owner, I started with a S&W M&P 15-22. I almost immediately regretted my decision when I saw how difficult it was to get 22lr ammo at less than 9mm/7.62 prices. I'm reasonably well placed now (thanks to the Ammo Finds thread here), but was giving the whole shortage thing some thought.

Here's some math (I'm an engineer, I can't help it ):

Annual 22lr production is "estimated at 2-2.5 billion rounds" (wikipedia). There are about 200+ million guns in the US, let's say 10% of them are 22lr, and let's say that since people own multiple guns, and a lot of 22lr guns are probably gathering rust, let's say that "active" 22lr shooters are 10% of that. That gives us 2 million "active shooters" (As an aside, I would like for us to reclaim that phrase - to me it means "person who is active in the hobby of shooting" rather than "mass murderer").

So, according to my really fuzzy math, we have about a thousand rounds of 22 per person per year. Not. Nearly. Enough. I've only been shooting a month or so, and I've already run through a couple thousand already.

I don't know about you guys, but I usually use up about 150 rounds an outing, ~200 if I bring a friend. I shoot about once a week on average, so that means about ten thousand rounds a year, not including training events like Appleseeds, etc.

Look at it this way, if only 250,000 people (less than 0.1% of the US population) shoot as much as I do, that's the entire annual 22lr supply - gone.

No wonder there's a shortage, I'm just surprised the shortage isn't worse.

[gwanghoops]

one mistake -- you're using the fact that there are 200+ million gunowners rather than guessing at the number of active gunowners that have at least one 22LR that is used for plinking.

[G21Shooter]

That is one way to look at it. Even if the math is very vague, it explains the shortage in numbers plain and simple.

Lots of .22 lr shooters and not enough ammo produced.

Add to that the flippers and extreme hoarders and boom, thats why we are in the mess we are in.

Bottom line, unless ammo manufactures at least quadruple production or more the shortage is going to continue.

[trigger945]

If your assumption of 2 million "active shooters" holds true, then your analysis appears reasonable.

It just does not seem probable without further analysis to suggest a different assumption at this point.

Sincerely,

An ex-Big 4 auditor

[thenodnarb]

I came to a similar conclusion with similar estimates. In actuality the production is higher, but I estimated more .22 shooters as well.

If you're an engineer, then you know that the data is more likely laid out on a bell curve. There will be a few shooters who shoot thousands of rounds a week, while others may not shoot a brick in 5 years( I used to be this way). But the majority will fall into the 1-10 bricks a year.

Human nature being what it is, I bet that the people who shoot more, are more vocal about it on the internet like this forum. So the active members on this forum and in the ammo finds thread, are actually far right on the bell curve.Sometimes we make the mistake of thinking that there are a lot more people like ourselves than there actually is because we talk to others like ourselves, and assume that since everyone we talk to is like us, that they are an average representation of a group.
But in reality, most shooters aren't that vocal, and don't shoot that much.

Anyway, .22 production is going to have to increase for all the reasons people have mentioned: Stockpilers, new shooters, people who train with .22 ARs etc...
Shooters are shooting more volume and new shooters are entering the market all the time. Anyone who was theorizing that this is a temporary "shortage" due to panic buying, is only partially correct. While its true that I would buy less if I could buy all that I could afford at Cabelas prices, I'm still shooting more than ever, and so are a lot of other people.

BTW regarding your numbers. CCI alone is producing nearly that a year. You still have Armscor, Aguila, Federal and Winchester to consider.

CCI was producing 4 million rounds a day. At 5 shifts a week, and 52 weeks a year, that is over a billion rounds a year. If they run a second shift every day, and run nearly every day of the year, you are at 2.5 billion or so.

Here is a neat little video of how .22lr is made at CCI.
This is from a couple years ago.
How .22 is made
Part 2

[mad1]

Fair points all above. I thought I was being conservative in estimating that only 1% of the guns in the US were "actively used" 22lr. I got the annual production numbers off Wikipedia, 5 minutes of googling didn't help me narrow it down any.

In any case, even if my assumptions are off by an order of magnitude, we're still in a genuine shortage, not even considering hoarding and flipping.

[Yoteman]

GWB fuzzy math aside, how come when there were more shooters 15 yrs ago ammo was in abundant supply....and at 8.96/550 rds? Hmmm?

[Bullitt01]

Thanks for the link to the videos. Neat to watch how they are made....more of a process then i thought.

[Fishslayer]

GWB fuzzy math aside, how come when there were more shooters 15 yrs ago ammo was in abundant supply....and at 8.96/550 rds? Hmmm?

Huh?

[small hole shooter]

More old mostly retired people like me now have more time for paper punching. We had the money, guns now we have the time so we are going to shot more with .22s. I had no .22s a few years ago, now I have 3 and 15k of ammo. I go 2 to 5 times a week as time allows. See you on the range.

[wfobase]

what really needs to come about imoa is that the shooters needs to stop buying from all the hoarders or flippers. I for one have nephews who love shooting the .22 rifles and pistols. the oldest always asks to bring 2 or 3 of his buddies from school - can never say no. now I've got the youngest neice - 9 yo - wanting to join her brothers, even more rounds down the range.

[Jimmybacon43]

I don't think the math is right on this one, seeing as all the figures are estimated except for the amount of ammo that is produced.

It's just high demand. People have high demand for ammo and price is obviously not a factor, because people keep buying it. Shooters bought a ton of ammo, reducing the overall supply, and now as it is being distributed in limited quantities at higher prices people continue to buy it. There is no opportunity for the supply levels to return to normal, and so the prices stay high, and the shortage continues. IMO.

I think really the only way for ammo to return to normal levels is if everyone lays off the .22 for a little bit, give the manufacturers a chance to catch up. Unfortunately there's pretty much no way that's going to happen and this shortage will continue longer than it needs to.
Also the fact that these shortages happen means that manufacturers really need to step up their game. I totally agree with the doubling or quadrupling of production capacity, when a manufacturer fails to supply the market adequately for such a long period of time, something is wrong. Just because demand is high doesn't mean that supply should dwindle to almost nothing. It's a frustrating situation all around.

[G21Shooter]

I don't think the math is right on this one, seeing as all the figures are estimated except for the amount of ammo that is produced.

While the math is not exact, it gives you a general idea of one of the reasons there is a shortage. Not enough ammo produced to meet demand. Demand however is artificially increased due to flippers and hoarders.

What I don't understand is why some billionaire(US or overseas) doesn't capitalize on this extreme demand for .22 lr and start a .22 lr ammo company with a huge factory to crank out massive amounts of the stuff.

[DTom75]

While the math is not exact, it gives you a general idea of one of the reasons there is a shortage. Not enough ammo produced to meet demand. Demand however is artificially increased due to flippers and hoarders.

What I don't understand is why some billionaire(US or overseas) doesn't capitalize on this extreme demand for .22 lr and start a .22 lr ammo company with a huge factory to crank out massive amounts of the stuff.

I concur!!!

I just need to win the lottery with a massive jackpot and I'd to it!
.

[rm1911]

the term hoarder is a misnomer. you save money, correct? you aren't hoarding. you have a jar of mayonnaise in the fridge that will last you several weeks. you aren't hoarding. we shop at costco and purchase foodstuffs for several weeks. many people have vacuum sealers and buy meat in bulk or use it for harvested game. it's not hoarding.

all of those reflect holding more than one needs at the given time. in fact, hoarding would be more a psychological disorder, and there's tv shows on it. it would be the inability to discard things without value or utility, not the acquisition of items with utility.

take gasoline as an example. when prices skyrocket people don't go out and stock up on gas. why? one, the holding cost is too high. two, the availability of gas, even at higher prices is good. but ammo is the opposite, as in low holding costs and poor availability.

so what then is "hoarding"? it is a reflection of uncertainty in the future. in fact, there's a term for it in economics, called liquidity preference. people hold cash in uncertain times due to needing greater liquidity. people will stock up on those items that they feel they will need at a later date which might not be available. with hoarding, they trade liquidity (a present orientation) for surplus (a future orientation). disaster prep is the exact same thing. keep a couple of cases of water in storage along with enough supplies to survive however many days you feel you'd need be prepared for. ammo stockpiling is the same thing.

surplus comes with a cost. as we become more future oriented, we must by necessity forgo items in the present. with ammo stockpiling, oddly enough, there is a low opportunity cost. plus, ammo last for many years if stored properly. and for the past year or so, there's been a hige change in the buying habits of shooters, especially .22 shooters. don't blame the buyers for any of this. they're responding and acting in a rational manner.