After SSE laws Pass?

[Shenaniguns]

You'd be rich beyond the dreams of avarice...

He'd just smoke himself silly.

[Euphoria526]

You'd be rich beyond the dreams of avarice...

Yeah, might have to SSE an sp01 or 2 and maybe a 1911 before years end for my retirement fund. Lol jk.

Did Gaston beat your father up?

No if he did I'd probably laugh my dad can be a butthole sometimes.

[IVC]

Not from a LEO friend or family member, per Abramski

Read the ruling. It's still good, as long as you don't pay in advance.

Ambramski just forced people to call it "escort service" instead of "prostitution." You can still get some, just need to watch what you sign...

[IVC]

you don't.

that's the point.

That's about it. I wish there was a deeper meaning, but there isn't.

[BlastRadius]

<snip> At least until we overturn the roster, which some people are thinking could happen this year.

Is there a Bill that is in the pipeline to make this happen that I can write my representative politicians about?

[bwiese]

PPT is going to be it for non-roster guns and lots of people are going to make a lot of money because people want what they want and will pay for it.

And these 'flipping' deals will have people going to jail or at least losing their gun rights for felony misrepresentation on 4473s - and this will be a Fed issue piled on top of any CA issue.

Remember what happened to those Sacramento cops flipping guns?

[CK_32]

you don't.

that's the point.

PPT. Say hello to $1000 gen4 glocks, ect.

These^

It's the back door, while the public says nay to "assault rifles" and says all you need is handguns and shotguns the government is making them look left while they take the very same guns they limited us to away, while the general public is busy looking else where and over a long slow period of time until its too late and they have not a clue wtf just happened.

Imagine a fixed poker game, the loser " the american people" don't have a clue until its too late they have lost everything and are shoved out the door saying, "hold the fu** up I was just scammed"... But by then your already locked out in the alley with no nothing.

[bbucropleyb]

Now that sounds like Mexico.

[ShooterStymie]

My background is in finance and economics. My guess is if/when the SSE ban gets passed, guns without clear alternatives will go up in value the most.

I don't want any Glock owners to get their panties in a bunch so I'll use my personal favorite, the Sig P226 & P229 (I vascillate between the two) as an example. In the near term, I don't think the value will skyrocket on those two guns. They have been on the roster a long time so there are plenty in the aftermarket for PPT. I believe the CA versions will stay on the roster. Certainly, people are willing to pay a premium for the non-CA versions of those pistols; but not many would be willing to pay a huge premium.

Over the longer term, as the used market is not replenished and more and more guns fall off the roster, then certainly popular guns will continue to gain in value as the supply shrinks. In the near term, I'd guess that off-roster versions of guns like the Sig P226/P229 and Glock 17/19 will go up 20% of their counterparts on-roster. In five years, if nothing changes it could go up to 50% or 100% premium. Now...if the P226/P229 or Glock 17/19 were to fall off the roster entirely, I would heartily agree that the prices could double or triple overnight. They are extremely popular guns and if the only available channel is PPT, it will get crazy.

The characteristics of guns that will go up in value right away would be:

1. Guns that do not have a counterpart on the roster or have never been on the roster. So, if the roster goes away, I don't think the M&P Shield will necessarily go up in value that much (I have one). It's possible the XDS could go up in value quite a bit because it has never been on the roster AFAIK.

2. Guns that haven't been around that long (in other words, not many in the aftermarket). So again, there are tons of P226 and Glock 17 in private hands, and if the price starts creeping higher, people will come out of the woodwork to sell - putting a damper on potential increases at least in the short term. I think guns like the Sig P938 and P227 have a good chance of increasing dramatically in value in the near term. They haven't been around that long and they never been on the roster. Not much used supply around.

3. Guns that are in demand. If/when the Ruger SR series falls completely off the roster, I just can't envision people paying dramatically more for them (at least in the near term). Nobody would pay $1000 for a Ruger SR9 while a Glock 17 is available on-roster for $500 or a P226 is available on-roster for $800. Substitution effect will limit price increases for items that aren't category leaders - again, in the short term. In the longer term, if the roster empties out, then obviously every single handgun could skyrocket in value.

I'm putting my own personal bets on:
Sig P938 (one in the pipeline, maybe one more before end of the year)
Sig P227 (one in hand, maybe one more)
Dan Wesson Specialist (if I can find one)
Dan Wesson ECO 9mm or Kimber Aegis
Maybe a high end 1911 to cap off the year (if I can find one)

[RichardBay]

3d print me that new glock17gen5 frame.

[jonzer77]

And these 'flipping' deals will have people going to jail or at least losing their gun rights for felony misrepresentation on 4473s - and this will be a Fed issue piled on top of any CA issue.

Remember what happened to those Sacramento cops flipping guns?

I doubt that as long as you stay within the limit of transactions per year.

[Shenaniguns]

No if he did I'd probably laugh my dad can be a butthole sometimes.

He's probably not a fan of your extra curricular habits

[John Browning]

My background is in finance and economics. My guess is if/when the SSE ban gets passed, guns without clear alternatives will go up in value the most.

I don't want any Glock owners to get their panties in a bunch so I'll use my personal favorite, the Sig P226 & P229 (I vascillate between the two) as an example. In the near term, I don't think the value will skyrocket on those two guns. They have been on the roster a long time so there are plenty in the aftermarket for PPT. I believe the CA versions will stay on the roster. Certainly, people are willing to pay a premium for the non-CA versions of those pistols; but not many would be willing to pay a huge premium.

Over the longer term, as the used market is not replenished and more and more guns fall off the roster, then certainly popular guns will continue to gain in value as the supply shrinks. In the near term, I'd guess that off-roster versions of guns like the Sig P226/P229 and Glock 17/19 will go up 20% of their counterparts on-roster. In five years, if nothing changes it could go up to 50% or 100% premium. Now...if the P226/P229 or Glock 17/19 were to fall off the roster entirely, I would heartily agree that the prices could double or triple overnight. They are extremely popular guns and if the only available channel is PPT, it will get crazy.

The characteristics of guns that will go up in value right away would be:

1. Guns that do not have a counterpart on the roster or have never been on the roster. So, if the roster goes away, I don't think the M&P Shield will necessarily go up in value that much (I have one). It's possible the XDS could go up in value quite a bit because it has never been on the roster AFAIK.

2. Guns that haven't been around that long (in other words, not many in the aftermarket). So again, there are tons of P226 and Glock 17 in private hands, and if the price starts creeping higher, people will come out of the woodwork to sell - putting a damper on potential increases at least in the short term. I think guns like the Sig P938 and P227 have a good chance of increasing dramatically in value in the near term. They haven't been around that long and they never been on the roster. Not much used supply around.

3. Guns that are in demand. If/when the Ruger SR series falls completely off the roster, I just can't envision people paying dramatically more for them (at least in the near term). Nobody would pay $1000 for a Ruger SR9 while a Glock 17 is available on-roster for $500 or a P226 is available on-roster for $800. Substitution effect will limit price increases for items that aren't category leaders - again, in the short term. In the longer term, if the roster empties out, then obviously every single handgun could skyrocket in value.

I'm putting my own personal bets on:
Sig P938 (one in the pipeline, maybe one more before end of the year)
Sig P227 (one in hand, maybe one more)
Dan Wesson Specialist (if I can find one)
Dan Wesson ECO 9mm or Kimber Aegis
Maybe a high end 1911 to cap off the year (if I can find one)

I don't think you're wrong, but you're forgetting that guns that aren't on the roster can still get in. The supply isn't limited. LE exemption/family gifts, etc. I think that will serve to moderate the demand quite a bit until the roster finally goes away.

[static2126]

Unfortunately I think it will be a much longer time until the roster goes away than what we think. The HK VP9 should have strong demand if anyone can get them.

[deephouse]

My background is in finance and economics. My guess is if/when the SSE ban gets passed, guns without clear alternatives will go up in value the most.

I don't want any Glock owners to get their panties in a bunch so I'll use my personal favorite, the Sig P226 & P229 (I vascillate between the two) as an example. In the near term, I don't think the value will skyrocket on those two guns. They have been on the roster a long time so there are plenty in the aftermarket for PPT. I believe the CA versions will stay on the roster. Certainly, people are willing to pay a premium for the non-CA versions of those pistols; but not many would be willing to pay a huge premium.

Over the longer term, as the used market is not replenished and more and more guns fall off the roster, then certainly popular guns will continue to gain in value as the supply shrinks. In the near term, I'd guess that off-roster versions of guns like the Sig P226/P229 and Glock 17/19 will go up 20% of their counterparts on-roster. In five years, if nothing changes it could go up to 50% or 100% premium. Now...if the P226/P229 or Glock 17/19 were to fall off the roster entirely, I would heartily agree that the prices could double or triple overnight. They are extremely popular guns and if the only available channel is PPT, it will get crazy.

The characteristics of guns that will go up in value right away would be:

1. Guns that do not have a counterpart on the roster or have never been on the roster. So, if the roster goes away, I don't think the M&P Shield will necessarily go up in value that much (I have one). It's possible the XDS could go up in value quite a bit because it has never been on the roster AFAIK.

2. Guns that haven't been around that long (in other words, not many in the aftermarket). So again, there are tons of P226 and Glock 17 in private hands, and if the price starts creeping higher, people will come out of the woodwork to sell - putting a damper on potential increases at least in the short term. I think guns like the Sig P938 and P227 have a good chance of increasing dramatically in value in the near term. They haven't been around that long and they never been on the roster. Not much used supply around.

3. Guns that are in demand. If/when the Ruger SR series falls completely off the roster, I just can't envision people paying dramatically more for them (at least in the near term). Nobody would pay $1000 for a Ruger SR9 while a Glock 17 is available on-roster for $500 or a P226 is available on-roster for $800. Substitution effect will limit price increases for items that aren't category leaders - again, in the short term. In the longer term, if the roster empties out, then obviously every single handgun could skyrocket in value.

I'm putting my own personal bets on:
Sig P938 (one in the pipeline, maybe one more before end of the year)
Sig P227 (one in hand, maybe one more)
Dan Wesson Specialist (if I can find one)
Dan Wesson ECO 9mm or Kimber Aegis
Maybe a high end 1911 to cap off the year (if I can find one)

Interesting analysis. I agree with you. I think without actually knowing the exact number of off roster guns in CA, it's hard to say what something will be worth. I'm Sure you thought of that already... There are probably tons of folks that have bought doubles of Glock 19 G4s, for instance. Half-a-dozen of them will most likely end up in the ads section right after SSE Ends, just to test the waters on what they're "worth". When in reality, there are likely thousands out there (both in use and hoarded).

Also, I'd think the "average" person who gets into guns AFTER SSE ends, may perceive the off-roster gun as "truly" hard to get - making that $900 Glock G4 ad worth it to them. While others (pre-SSE ban) may look at that same ad, and say "F- that, I remember when they were six hundo."

Interesting times indeed. I have my next 5 guns lined up also... LOL