Predictive Policing?

[gogogadget]

Sounds like it might be a helpful tool. LEOs already know what areas are trouble spots. But this computer program sets up a perimeter of where crimes are most likely to occur. What do you guys think? Helpful or waste of resources. Crimes can be commited in random areas but; humans can be predictable as we are creatures of habit.

Article below. √

http://news.santacruz.com/2011/08/18/predictive_policing_and_scpd

[Ron-Solo]

LASD has been usinig similar concepts since the 80's. This is just a new name that the higher ups will fall for and spend money on that could be used to keep equipment updated.

It's all about inputting data from reported crimes, and concentrating resources there. I can remember when we used pin maps for the same thing. Different crimes got a different colored pin on the map where they occurred. Low tech, but you knew where things were going on.

[TrailerparkTrash]

LASD has been usinig similar concepts since the 80's. This is just a new name that the higher ups will fall for and spend money on that could be used to keep equipment updated.

It's all about inputting data from reported crimes, and concentrating resources there. I can remember when we used pin maps for the same thing. Different crimes got a different colored pin on the map where they occurred. Low tech, but you knew where things were going on.

Yeah, LASD uses a system called "LARCIS." I don't recall what that acronym stands for but it's a litteral check off sheet that is is an actual page or "supplemental" to the original crime report. It has to be attached to every first report on the dept. It's been is use for about 8-9 years. So far, it hasn't seemed to help. ...However the inventors of that program probably thinks so.

Actually, there is mixed opinions on it, but it's a system that's out there as the OP has already mentioned.

[biochembruin]

Putting the cops on the dots.

[TRICKSTER]

Waste of time for most beat problems unless management makes a quick decision and is willing to dedicate resources. I use to see this stuff all the time, beat officer would complain about burglaries or auto thefts occurring on certain days and hours and ask for help taking care of it. Management would sit and wait for the monthly computer crime analysis to respond. By that time the crooks had moved on to another hunting ground.

[BigDogatPlay]

The data is coming in close to real time now, which makes a world of difference when allocating resources.

When George Gascon became chief of the SFPD the first thing he did was to begin implementation of CompStat, which former Chief Bratton championed in NYPD and LAPD. While results have, to some degree been mixed, and CompStat is more or a management philosophy driven by real time statistical analysis, it has it's merits.

This application looks to be a harder core computer based processing model that takes the human intuition out of it. Should be interesting to see how it works in practice.

[biochembruin]

...This application looks to be a harder core computer based processing model that takes the human intuition out of it. Should be interesting to see how it works in practice.

We've been using it for a while now. We don't see any meaningful drop in overall crime. In practice, resources (when available) are allocated to these "hot spots" the computer comes up with. Criminals see the increased uniform presence in one area, and simply move to adjacent areas. The following week, the computer predicts the new "hot spot" adjacent to the previous week's target area based on the increase crime in that area.

Also, only works in any meaningful way for property crimes. Violent crimes are crimes of passion, and the model fails to predict them in any statistically meaningful way.

[tyrist]

It works to a certain extent but you have to use your brain as well. It's just a tool that you can use in addition to your experience and training.

[Ron-Solo]

TrailerPark,

Back in the 80's we had C-CAP, which was piloted out of industry Station, then went countywide. It stood for Community Crime Analysis Program. It evolved into something else, then eventually evolved into the current program.

It works ok for property crimes but like someone else said, personal crimes are often crimes of passion. It can also be used by investigators for serial crimes.

The C-CAP program got it's big test during the infamous "Night Stalker" case and was useful to investigators to group the crimes together.


Some of these new names and such help pencil pushing weenies to get promoted beyond their supervisory capability as a reward.

[retired]

TrailerPark,

Back in the 80's we had C-CAP, which was piloted out of industry Station, then went countywide. It stood for Community Crime Analysis Program. It evolved into something else, then eventually evolved into the current program.

It works ok for property crimes but like someone else said, personal crimes are often crimes of passion. It can also be used by investigators for serial crimes.

The C-CAP program got it's big test during the infamous "Night Stalker" case and was useful to investigators to group the crimes together.


Some of these new names and such help pencil pushing weenies to get promoted beyond their supervisory capability as a reward.

Ron, I can't believe you would think something like that would ever occur.....

This is the Peter Principle at work. We all know some of those "Golden Boys/Girls" right.

[Falconis]

Heh, and here one of my previous captains wanted to shove GPS devices up our asses and have us drive our cars around in a grid pattern every night. If we missed a block, the cattle prod installed in our seat would shock us. If a crime happened, it would shock us. Because they weren't suppose to happen if we drove our beats properly. If we stood at a stop light too long, it would shock us too.

I think we got distracted by the florescent lights and forgot about it.

I remember the most effective tool we had was putting bad people in jail every night and eventually prison for the dumb****s that deserved it.