LEO's only: No knock warrants

[Purple K]

Dear LEO's,
I've done a little research lately and am alarmed at the number of no-knock and one-knock warrants being served to the wrong address. These events often result in injuries and sometimes fatalities. How would you react to a sign that said: "Officers, if you are here to serve a warrant, you are at the wrong address. If you use forcible entry techniques to enter, I will likely assume that I'm the victim of a home invasion robbery. You and I will likely shoot each other. Re-check your info. or just knock and wait for me to answer". Comments?

[ArtSki]

I would turn around and leave.

[center_x]

Its kinda like the druggies wearing D.A.R.E wrist bands?

[BC9696]

That's one way to ensure they come in blazin'...

[tenpercentfirearms]

Would you care to share your research data? How often is it occurring? How often is it occurring at the wrong house? How often does someone get injured? What are the comparisons of no-knocks vs. a knock warrant? What are the warrants being served for?

I am thinking the odds of being involved in a erroneous no knock warrant are statistically similar to winning the PowerBall. I doubt your sign would stop the warrant once it is being executed. You would probably be better served in securing your doors to where it requires explosives to blow through them. If you hear a bunch of yells of "police!" and flashbangs start going off, it might be safe to assume it is the police.

You might also reduce your odds of the no-knock warrant by moving away from the meth lab neighbors or being sure to be the reporting party and make sure they get the address correct when you report them.

Personally I am not that worried about it as the cops around here know me and my address and my neighbors are decent people. If anyone in black outfits comes barging into my house, they probably will have yellow ATF lettering on and it probably really would be the ATF. They aren't going to find anything, but hey, crap happens.

[Purple K]

That's one way to ensure they come in blazin'...

That's why I'm asking. I want to get the messege across without it sounding like a challenge or a threat. I don't want them busting down my door at O'dark-thirty all amped up on adrenalin while I'm rubbing the sand outa my eyes all pumped up with WTF and adrenalin. It'll go downhill real fast for all involved. Some of my neighbors are not exactly the best neighbors. One of the local gangs tagged my house with spray paint by mistake instead of my next-door neighbor. See where I'm going with this....

[Oceanbob]

A good way to start a fire-fight

Dear LEO's,
I've done a little research lately and am alarmed at the number of no-knock and one-knock warrants being served to the wrong address. These events often result in injuries and sometimes fatalities. How would you react to a sign that said: "Officers, if you are here to serve a warrant, you are at the wrong address. If you use forcible entry techniques to enter, I will likely assume that I'm the victim of a home invasion robbery. You and I will likely shoot each other. Re-check your info. or just knock and wait for me to answer". Comments?

But just because They're after you doesn't mean you're Paronoid..

Yes, mistakes happen. But your chances of winning the SUPER LOTTO and getting hit by lightning are much higher. When I lived in the San Fernando Valley (way back) our neighbor would take cover when an LAPD Helicopter
would be seen or heard circling a 5 mile radius. He was certain they were
coming for him. Once he actually climbed a tree in his front yard to hide.
LOL.

Just lock up so tight that anyone entering will have to get a battering ram.

And no, don't start shooting. They don't like it when you shoot at them.

[Purple K]

Would you care to share your research data? How often is it occurring? How often is it occurring at the wrong house? How often does someone get injured? What are the comparisons of no-knocks vs. a knock warrant? What are the warrants being served for?

I am thinking the odds of being involved in a erroneous no knock warrant are statistically similar to winning the PowerBall. I doubt your sign would stop the warrant once it is being executed. You would probably be better served in securing your doors to where it requires explosives to blow through them. If you hear a bunch of yells of "police!" and flashbangs start going off, it might be safe to assume it is the police.

You might also reduce your odds of the no-knock warrant by moving away from the meth lab neighbors or being sure to be the reporting party and make sure they get the address correct when you report them.

Personally I am not that worried about it as the cops around here know me and my address and my neighbors are decent people. If anyone in black outfits comes barging into my house, they probably will have yellow ATF lettering on and it probably really would be the ATF. They aren't going to find anything, but hey, crap happens.

Google is your friend: "cops raid wrong house"

[Purple K]

But just because They're after you doesn't mean you're NOT Paronoid..

Hey, that one of my sayings..... LOL

[Oceanbob]

Google

Google is your friend: "cops raid wrong house"

The ODDS


Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1

Odds of getting a hole in one: 5,000 to 1

Odds of getting canonized: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1

Odds of an American speaking Cherokee: 15,000 to 1

Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does NOT read a newspaper regularly: 3 to 1

Odds that an American adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 3 to 2

Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1

Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1

Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1

Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1

Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1

Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1

Odds of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1

Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1

Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1

Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1

Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1

Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1

Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1.3 to 1

Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 3 to 1

Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1

Odds of being born a twin in North America: 90 to 1

Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1

Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1

Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1

Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1

Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1

Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1

Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1

Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 10,000 to 1

Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1

Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1

Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1

Odds of spotting a UFO today: 3,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1

Odds of winning the California lottery: 13,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 182,138,880,000,000 to 1

Chance of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10.

Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820

Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380

Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421

Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585

Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666

Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065

Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524

Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787

Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000

Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000

Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107

Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319

Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035

Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000

Chance of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000

Chance of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377

Chance of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000

Chance of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564

Chance of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000

Chance of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556

Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000

Chance of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477

Chance of dying from a mountain lion attack in California: 1 in 32,000,000

Chance of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000

Chance of having a stroke: 1 in 6

Chance of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3

Chance of getting arthritis: 1 in 7

Chance of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6

Chance of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10

Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000

Chance of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000

Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2

Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: 1 in 3

Chance of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6

Chance of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of getting colon / rectal cancer: 1 in 26

Chance of beating pancreatic or liver cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of beating thyroid or testicular cancer: 9 in 10

[Purple K]

The ODDS


Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1

Odds of getting a hole in one: 5,000 to 1

Odds of getting canonized: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1

Odds of an American speaking Cherokee: 15,000 to 1

Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does NOT read a newspaper regularly: 3 to 1

Odds that an American adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 3 to 2

Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1

Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1

Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1

Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1

Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1

Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1

Odds of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1

Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1

Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1

Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1

Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1

Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1

Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1.3 to 1

Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 3 to 1

Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1

Odds of being born a twin in North America: 90 to 1

Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1

Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1

Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1

Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1

Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1

Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1

Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1

Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1

Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1

Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 10,000 to 1

Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1

Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1

Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1

Odds of spotting a UFO today: 3,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1

Odds of winning the California lottery: 13,000,000 to 1

Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 182,138,880,000,000 to 1

Chance of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10.

Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820

Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380

Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421

Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585

Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666

Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065

Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524

Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787

Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000

Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000

Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107

Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319

Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035

Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000

Chance of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000

Chance of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377

Chance of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000

Chance of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564

Chance of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000

Chance of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556

Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000

Chance of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325

Chance of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477

Chance of dying from a mountain lion attack in California: 1 in 32,000,000

Chance of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000

Chance of having a stroke: 1 in 6

Chance of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3

Chance of getting arthritis: 1 in 7

Chance of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6

Chance of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10

Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000

Chance of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000

Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2

Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: 1 in 3

Chance of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6

Chance of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of getting colon / rectal cancer: 1 in 26

Chance of beating pancreatic or liver cancer: 1 in 9

Chance of beating thyroid or testicular cancer: 9 in 10

But what about Murphy's Law. And, catch 22. And, SNAFU. And, .......

[tenpercentfirearms]

Google is your friend: "cops raid wrong house"

So if I do a Google search for "cops raid wrong house", I am going to get scientific data on how often this occurs? Or I am going to see say 20 different news articles about raiding the wrong house spread out over a 10 year period. When factoring in that the total number of no knock raids over that time span I find out that the wrong house was raided .000001% of the time, does that necessitate that I bother putting a sign up in my yard or on the wall of my house that will simply be ignored by the police anyway?

Google search "the world ends in 2012". Should I be worried about that too?

You said you were doing research. Looking up Google news stories about the wrong house getting raided is not research. Research is coming up with numbers and statistics on how often this is occurring and coming up with more scientific conclusions about whether this is a legitimate concern for public safety or not.

For example, I wrote my master's thesis on zero tolerance and school violence. It turns out school violence had actually been declining all the way through the mid 2000s. Yet the common perception is that schools are more violent than they have ever been. What causes this? High profile shootings. The media covers them so much, that people think that kids are brining guns to school and shooting people all of the time. This isn't true, but most people think it is.

So zero tolerance is a supposed solution to this. However, if you do research on zero tolerance, it really hasn't been proven to stop school shootings. It feels good and sounds good for parents who just want their kids to be "safe", but has not proven successful.

So I really don't worry about one of my students coming to school and shooting everyone. I know I am statistically more likely to be struck by lightening.

Statistically speaking, what are your odds in being involved in an erroneous no knock warrant? How do those odds increase based on the value of your home?

[Purple K]

So if I do a Google search for "cops raid wrong house", I am going to get scientific data on how often this occurs? Or I am going to see say 20 different news articles about raiding the wrong house spread out over a 10 year period. When factoring in that the total number of no knock raids over that time span I find out that the wrong house was raided .000001% of the time, does that necessitate that I bother putting a sign up in my yard or on the wall of my house that will simply be ignored by the police anyway?

Google search "the world ends in 2012". Should I be worried about that too?

You said you were doing research. Looking up Google news stories about the wrong house getting raided is not research. Research is coming up with numbers and statistics on how often this is occurring and coming up with more scientific conclusions about whether this is a legitimate concern for public safety or not.

For example, I wrote my master's thesis on zero tolerance and school violence. It turns out school violence had actually been declining all the way through the mid 2000s. Yet the common perception is that schools are more violent than they have ever been. What causes this? High profile shootings. The media covers them so much, that people think that kids are brining guns to school and shooting people all of the time. This isn't true, but most people think it is.

So zero tolerance is a supposed solution to this. However, if you do research on zero tolerance, it really hasn't been proven to stop school shootings. It feels good and sounds good for parents who just want their kids to be "safe", but has not proven successful.

So I really don't worry about one of my students coming to school and shooting everyone. I know I am statistically more likely to be struck by lightening.

Statistically speaking, what are your odds in being involved in an erroneous no knock warrant? How do those odds increase based on the value of your home?

My notes are at work. I'll post more tonight. I'm not a "cop Basher", I'm on their side. I know that the odds of this scenario happening slim-to-none. But, I work in a Refinery, I see a lot a statistics and data about the probability of certain things happening. Risk management; High risk-High frequency, High risk-Low Frequency all the way down to Low Risk-Low Frequency. You'd be amazed at how often things happen that aren't statistically supposed to be possible. I don't want to be that one guy out of 300 million.

[Zorrm]

Honestly what got you worried about this? I mean the odds of this happening can't be all that great... it seems like you are getting a little over worked up over this.

And the bottom line on this is, if the police have a warrant (and they are at the right address or not) they will come in, regardless of you putting up a sign or a flier.

[tenpercentfirearms]

My notes are at work. I'll post more tonight. I'm not a "cop Basher", I'm on their side. I know that the odds of this scenario happening slim-to-none. But, I work in a Refinery, I see a lot a statistics and data about the probability of certain things happening. Risk management; High risk-High frequency, High risk-Low Frequency all the way down to Low Risk-Low Frequency. You'd be amazed at how often things happen that aren't statistically supposed to be possible. I don't want to be that one guy out of 300 million.

That is understandable.

So back to the really relevant question then, will such a sign have any impact on a no-knock raid?