Suggestions for a Plan "B"

[mojo goat]

We plan on selling our house in northern Ca, and moving to Idaho next year.
My Spidey sense tells me the housing bubble in Idaho is going to pop next year if hair sniffer becomes POTUS.
We sold at the top of the last bubble in Ca, the prices were going up almost as fast as they are in Idaho. Our $238K home went for $779K then dropped value to almost half that within a year.

Where in the west half of the states could our plan b location be that will remain somewhat conservative for the next 10-15 years?
We don't like extreme cold.

[Sutcliffe]

I don't think Idaho is a bubble

People were fleeing the Golden State during Trump and even Pre-Covid.

There is massive development going on in Southern ID and I don't see that changing.

Even if it does burst and you have a home that you paid cash for.......

[Senko]

From most articles I've come across, RE is up dramatically most everywhere anyone might want to live nationwide. This is what makes a home a difficult investment. You still need to live somewhere.

Something a POD's driver told me about up here in ID is a company, CBH IIRC, has been building new neighborhoods of rental homes. I think he said they charge about $1/SF for these new homes.

If you really believe there will be an enormous drop in 3-6 months, rent then buy.

If Biteme does take office what are the odds interest rates go up quickly? Might there be programs to get more people into homes or keep them in existing?

[Rotnguns]

The treasure valley has had real estate downturns in the early 80's , early 90's , and of course the great recession around 2009. We always bounce back, and generally, the rest of the nation fares worse. You won't go wrong buying real estate in the treasure valley, over time. My opinion: get the house you want in the place you want and be happy living in it.

Interesting note: land in the vicinity of Micron Tech sold for 10 - 25 dollars an acre in the early 70s.

[mojo goat]

My worry is the Dems intentionally causing so much economic pain to the regular folk to install their remedy/agenda/socialistic programs.
Look at Portland, all of a sudden, after the election, the major decides to end the protest by all means available?
The last economic downturn the Dems in charge bailed out the corporations,banksters and state government budgets. Regular folks got squat, and lost their homes which the Banksters bought for rentals with the Fed zero interest free money.
How many regular folk could have kept their homes with zero interest?

[Senko]

Mojo I get the apprehension in buying at the top. I guess your life situation might make some decisions easier. Single, married without kids, young kids, teens all makes a difference. Single most likely the easiest. You choose the discomfort you are willing to deal with.

I agree a correction is overdue in CA and everywhere else that people want to live. We chose a place we wanted to live with good schools. If you have reasonably good schools others will want to live there first vs homes in areas with below avg schools.

Sounds like you have taken the first step in preserving your equity from a CA house that you have lived in for 2 decades. To a degree the same will happen if you move to an area that has a long term attraction to others. Is the TV that place? I think so, but I'm sure there will be ups and downs over the next 10-15 years.

[sigstroker]

Where in the west half of the states could our plan b location be that will remain somewhat conservative for the next 10-15 years?
We don't like extreme cold.

It's just a few hundred miles northwest, in Fantasyland.

Any such place that's warm and expected to be conservative would have been flooded with kalifornicators, which means it wouldn't be conservative for long. Kalis that think they're conservative are usually pretty liberal. For example, when I moved to kali, I thought Limbaugh was a lightweight left of center. Everyone I knew that would even talk about him in kali thought he was a right-wing devil.

[Rotnguns]

When cities get big, they get liberal. I've read that the interior and far north parts of cali are quite conservative. If you could roll SF , LA, San Jose, and San Diego into one corner of cali and give them their own state, what was left would be an awesome place to live!

[Senko]

When cities get big, they get liberal. I've read that the interior and far north parts of cali are quite conservative. If you could roll SF , LA, San Jose, and San Diego into one corner of cali and give them their own state, what was left would be an awesome place to live!

Often discussed and yes it would be an awesome place, but for how long? I'm sure we would see the same migration out to the new awesome place just like we've seen in all the other states.

Not my idea, but one way the red states (low taxes, small gov't) could slow the change is use a form of an electoral system in state like we have nationally. Give more representation to the state as a whole vs the one or two metro areas.

[sigstroker]

When cities get big, they get liberal. I've read that the interior and far north parts of cali are quite conservative. If you could roll SF , LA, San Jose, and San Diego into one corner of cali and give them their own state, what was left would be an awesome place to live!

Just need to keep them in with a wall.

[-hanko]

We plan on selling our house in northern Ca, and moving to Idaho next year.
My Spidey sense tells me the housing bubble in Idaho is going to pop next year if hair sniffer becomes POTUS.
We sold at the top of the last bubble in Ca, the prices were going up almost as fast as they are in Idaho. Our $238K home went for $779K then dropped value to almost half that within a year.

Where in the west half of the states could our plan b location be that will remain somewhat conservative for the next 10-15 years?
We don't like extreme cold.

Define "extreme cold". While you're trying to figure that out, go to city data dot com, enter Boise, and see what a typical winter might be.

From most articles I've come across, RE is up dramatically most everywhere anyone might want to live nationwide. This is what makes a home a difficult investment. You still need to live somewhere.

Something a POD's driver told me about up here in ID is a company, CBH IIRC, has been building new neighborhoods of rental homes. I think he said they charge about $1/SF for these new homes.

If you really believe there will be an enormous drop in 3-6 months, rent then buy.

If Biteme does take office what are the odds interest rates go up quickly? Might there be programs to get more people into homes or keep them in existing?

I'd go back and check your "$1/sq. ft." stuff...sounds like the POD driver was smoking more than crack.

Corey Barton Homes has been building in the TV for quite a while. Great if you like cookie-cutter neighborhoods with built-in HOA's. Maybe 10 to 15 feet between houses if you're lucky. "Contractor grade" appliances and lighting too boot.

The treasure valley has had real estate downturns in the early 80's , early 90's , and of course the great recession around 2009. We always bounce back, and generally, the rest of the nation fares worse. You won't go wrong buying real estate in the treasure valley, over time. My opinion: get the house you want in the place you want and be happy living in it.

Iirc, housing prices were moving up but not to the degree they are now. TV real estate is definitely a good investment.

My worry is the Dems intentionally causing so much economic pain to the regular folk to install their remedy/agenda/socialistic programs.
Look at Portland, all of a sudden, after the election, the major decides to end the protest by all means available?
The last economic downturn the Dems in charge bailed out the corporations,banksters and state government budgets. Regular folks got squat, and lost their homes which the Banksters bought for rentals with the Fed zero interest free money.
How many regular folk could have kept their homes with zero interest?

Idaho Dem's are a lot different than Oregon's...Idaho is more Republican than California is Democrat, and even Idaho Dems don't act like Californians. Read about the last BLM demonstration here last October.

I think you have a LOT more homework research and a trip or a few up here to scope things out.

[mojo goat]

Now Im thinking of hanging on to the Fortuna house for winter, and buying a smaller place in TV. We are in a small Banana belt area on the coast, seldom foggy and always warmer and sunnier than surround area. Been ordering warmer clothes for our winter visit in January, I normally wear flip-flops and t-shirts year round here.

[Senko]

Define "extreme cold". While you're trying to figure that out, go to city data dot com, enter Boise, and see what a typical winter might be.



I'd go back and check your "$1/sq. ft." stuff...sounds like the POD driver was smoking more than crack.

Corey Barton Homes has been building in the TV for quite a while. Great if you like cookie-cutter neighborhoods with built-in HOA's. Maybe 10 to 15 feet between houses if you're lucky. "Contractor grade" appliances and lighting too boot.


Iirc, housing prices were moving up but not to the degree they are now. TV real estate is definitely a good investment.



Idaho Dem's are a lot different than Oregon's...Idaho is more Republican than California is Democrat, and even Idaho Dems don't act like Californians. Read about the last BLM demonstration here last October.

I think you have a LOT more homework research and a trip or a few up here to scope things out.

I'll be the first to admit I don't know Schiff about Schiff here. The driver is a transplant from Montana (moved here 25 years ago). They sold their house 6 months ago thinking it was at the top. Old house has gone up about 40K since they sold. They have been renting since then and mentioned the CBH rental home communities that are being built. Given the influx of people, $2,000/month for a brand new 2,000 sf home with appliances etc doesn't sound outrageous. Apartments are $1,400-1,700 depending on size amenities.

Here's an article on CBH https://boisedev.com/news/2020/02/05...mes-apartments

Some houses for rent https://www.trulia.com/for_rent/Meri...ME_type/13_zm/

A lot of those are renting for more than $1/SF.

Seems expensive for locals, but maybe not for an out of stater waiting for a new home to be built.

[Senko]

Off the top of my head, conservative state with warm weather (milder winter) would likely be St. George, UT. IIRC it's about 2 hours east of Vegas.

[sonofeugene]

Renting in a region where you eventually want to live does have the advantage that you can then continue to scope out homes and areas while you're actually living in the state. Of course, prices could continue to go up. It's a risk.