Every Picture Tells A Story - Redux

[RKV]

Several months ago, John Richardson of the blog "No Lawyers Only Guns And Money" was kind enough to post an analysis of mine. Did some more thinking about it and here's what came out... http://onlygunsandmoney.blogspot.com...-part-two.html Short version: national data shows no positive correlation between liberalized concealed carry laws and violent crime as measured by FBI Uniform Crime Reporting statistics. And yes there are some caveats associated with this analysis: a) utilitarianism has its limits (see the 5th Amendment for example) b) it only covers 25 years. That said, raising the cost to criminals vis a vis armed response with deadly force (or the possibility thereof) does seem to decrease demand for crime.

[OleCuss]

Nice chart. Obviously doesn't prove that more armed citizens reduces violent crime (although it does suggest that).

Certainly does show that during the time graphed that there is no credible evidence that increased gun ownership and carrying has resulted in more violent crime. If anyone tried to make that argument you'd have just trashed them.

[CHS]

Uhhhhh, please help me understand these numbers because I HIGHLY doubt that 70% of the US population has CCW's and carries regularly.

[Fjold]

Uhhhhh, please help me understand these numbers because I HIGHLY doubt that 70% of the US population has CCW's and carries regularly.

It seems to say that 70% of the people live in "shall issue" or "constitutional carry" states.

[Ubermcoupe]

Uhhhhh, please help me understand these numbers because I HIGHLY doubt that 70% of the US population has CCW's and carries regularly.

Just noticed that too, seems a bit high...

nevermind, the label on the axis is incorrect, the blue line represents “% of US pop w/ const carry or shall issue” I am assuming residency.

[RKV]

The axis label is not incorrect. Read the title.

[RKV]

"I HIGHLY doubt that 70% of the US population has CCW's and carries regularly. "

I can't help it that you don't read the title.

[RKV]

"It is impossible to speak in such a way that you cannot be misunderstood."
Karl Popper

"Ditto graph."
RKV

[Ubermcoupe]

The axis label is not incorrect. Read the title.

“Progress in firearms carry rights II”



The axis only says “% of US population.” It takes reading a little bit more to clarify what that really means. It may not be “incorrect” but it sure as heck ain’t perfectly clear...

[RKV]

Can you read? Apparently not.

[Ubermcoupe]

Can you read? Apparently not.

Guess not.

[G60]

Good work. I also enjoy the "graphics matter" series by Linoge over at WotC, I noticed he mentioned those charts as well in the post.

[RKV]

I got part of the idea from Linoge, so of course he should be mentioned. His work counts the states (shall issue + constitutional carry). The more I thought about it, while the sheer number of states matters, not all states have equal populations. So when you count NY, IL, MA, NJ and the PRK, you end up with 10% of the number of states AND greater than 25% of the population. Seemed to matter to me. As noted in the article, not all state level data is moving in the same direction at the same time. And the crime rate differs from state to state significantly. I didn't want to oversimplify the result - just to note that the overall correlation is not positive.

[Stonewalker]

While this is a nice graph with some interesting data - DO NOT go around using this as "proof" that LTC issuance reduced crime. This is all correlation, not causation. Our side must maintain intellectually honesty and data integrity, even if the other side rarely does. It is good data, but there is zero proof here.

[RKV]

I believe you'll find my analysis in the article is suitably conservative (correlation is discussed, not "proof"). About all that you can say further (and I believe this does matter) is that the wild west, blood in the streets scenarios that the anti's predicted as the result of liberalizing concealed carry laws, don't seem to be materializing (and certainly not in aggregate). This doesn't surprise us, but does take away one media talking point as we approach the restoration of 2nd Amendment rights in the remaining constitution free states (aka NY, MA, NJ, IL, the PRK, etc.).