Peņa v. Cid (Handgun Roster) **CERT DENIED 6-15-2020**

[wireless]

Yes it’s possible but unlikely considering all of the current factors like NY case, court composition, and previous lower court opinions. I think they will want to clarify the standard of review for 2A cases.

[OleCuss]

Is it possible that SCOTUS could be working on a Summary Reversal?

Understand, I'm not claiming any particular insight and I certainly have no insider information.

But if his case sort of disappeared I'd imagine that Gura might inquire as to what had happened and it is possible that someone in the SCOTUS infrastructure could have told him that the case was not killed but that a different avenue was being taken.

A Summary Reversal might fit into that - or it might not.

[jcwatchdog]

I don't recall any re-lists "falling into a black hole" like this has. Isn't this more characteristic of a denial with an attached dissent? Of course, there's also the possibility of holding it until NYSRPA, but wouldn't its status be updated even then?

[SantaCabinetguy]

Grab your tinfoil or tea leaves...


An update on NYSRPA v NYC is set for 5/7 from SCOTUS. Perhaps an update on Pena will follow.

[tenemae]

This is actually better than getting relisted multiple times and then forgotten. But I wish we could know more.

I don't recall any re-lists "falling into a black hole" like this has. Isn't this more characteristic of a denial with an attached dissent? Of course, there's also the possibility of holding it until NYSRPA, but wouldn't its status be updated even then?

[Paladin]

Some recent analysis of number of relists and chances of cert.

It seems like one or two relists is good, and most cases that are accepted have had a relist or two but more than two is not good.

Of course gun cases are special and the court is timid.

1 week to go!

[jcwatchdog]

This is actually better than getting relisted multiple times and then forgotten. But I wish we could know more.

[everyday_hero]

Set aside $$$ for off-roster firearms purchase & a portion of charitable money to CalGunsFoundation. Always wanted a Ruger Charger.

[mikestesting]

Still nothing.

[bobbodaggit]

[ShadowGuy]

What happens in 17 hours? Or less now actually.

I think there may possibly be an update on this case from the 4/18 conference published at 6:30am PT.

[jcwatchdog]

About 17 hours to go!

What happens in 17 hours? Or less now actually.

[Robotron2k84]

Roberts is a virtual clone (90% agreement) with Kennedy. That's a problem in my book. He only agrees with Thomas 79% of the time. Gorsuch is still too new to judge agreement.

https://www.scotusblog.com/statistics/

[wireless]

My concern is that CJ Roberts has gone squish. While it only takes 4 votes to grant a petition for cert, if you don't have 5 votes, why bring up the case to create a binding nation-wide precedent?

I am concerned about Roberts in general but when it comes to Pena or the NY case I am not. A couple things to consider:

John Paul Stevens, who wrote the dissent in Heller, published in his book or for a newspaper interview (I can't remember which), that he convinced Kennedy to only sign onto Heller if certain language was added. For example, the line quoted by all gun control advocates about the 2nd amendment not protecting carrying in sensitive places. If it wasn't for Kennedy flip-flopping, that language would have never made it into Heller. Scalia had to add that in order to keep the 5-4 majority. This is a good indication that Kennedy was the hold out vote from 2008-2018 and it was not Roberts.

If you read the oral argument transcript in Heller, he refers to a history and tradition test a handful of times during questioning. This is a good indication that he believes that is the correct standard. He did talk about the a law banning guns in market places during the 18th century, so a law like that one would be presumptively lawful nowadays. Not the greatest news for carry, but it does mean CA could have a shall issue CCW like Illinois does one day. Basically you can carry walking your dog and driving too and from places, but you won't be able to carry in schools, court houses, events, public markets, city owned shopping centers, etc.

Roberts overall voting record is far more conservative than people claim, because he has had a few high profile cases where he swung the other way. Forgetting Obamacare, his recent denial of abortion cases or allowing certain laws to stand (respecting stare decisis), is not an indication that how he will vote when one of those cases finally reaches SCOTUS. I think he is trying way too hard to make the court seem middle of the road and favorable to the public, but when the time comes for moderately conservative decisions, he will follow through assuming there is evidence that he would in the past.

My hope in Roberts current abortion rulings (choosing to not intervene in cases while they play out in the lower courts), is that he is doing what will most likely benefit conservatives in the long run. Hold out for 6 conservative justices before turning over precedent or making controversial decisions. That would be the smartest thing to do, because with a 5-4 majority, the left will destroy conservatives in an election if their "right" to kill a baby is overturned. A 6-3 decisions allows those cases to stand for much longer.



Regarding Pena- if the supreme court is holding Pena while NY plays out, then they are almost certainly setting a standard for review in that case, and not trying to overturn a super obscure law with a very narrow decision that will have about as much impact as Caentano did.

[Paladin]

About 17 hours to go!