Ammo shortage plus 1 to 2 years

[Slash2]

What do you think the ammo market will look like in a year or two?

We have the current shortage because of a run on ammunition, people stocking up in fear of bans or limitations on ammo in the future, at least that's one theory. If these folks load up on a ton of ammo now, who's going to be buying ammo a year from now when the manufacturers have caught up with demand?

Will the people with large reserves of ammo be out of the market for a while? Will there be decreased demand therefore lower prices? Or will the manufacturers limit production to keep prices high?

[AEC1]

If nothing changes, 4-6 months. If the fears that drove the shortage come to fruition, never...

[ar15barrels]

Something to factor-in is the sheer numbers of guns being sold.
It's not the same number of ammo users anymore.

[Texas Boy]

Something to factor-in is the sheer numbers of guns being sold.
It's not the same number of ammo users anymore.

Yes, but what percentage of these new gun owners will take up shooting as a sport - i.e. shoot their guns on a semi regular basis and consume ammo? My guess is it will only be a small fraction and therefore we will only see modest growth in the real ammo consumption rate.

However, I see this as more of a good thing - more people involved in firearms activities means greater awareness of RKBA and less chance of a municipality shutting down a range because they don't like guns. Heck, we might even get more places to shot! And the ammunition manufactures will have a larger market so they can modernize their equipment to produce better ammo at a lower mfg cost.

[Slash2]

Something to factor-in is the sheer numbers of guns being sold.
It's not the same number of ammo users anymore.

Plus the politicians have to be aware of the depth and breadth of concern by average citizens, not because of what lobbyist are telling them, but because practically every store, in every town, in every state is out of supply. That's a hell of a lot of voters making a statement.

[God Bless The Mauser]

I think instead of complaing we should welcome all the new gun owners and encourage them to shoot.

[bartt]

Yes, but what percentage of these new gun owners will take up shooting as a sport - i.e. shoot their guns on a semi regular basis and consume ammo? My guess is it will only be a small fraction and therefore we will only see modest growth in the real ammo consumption rate.

The other side of this argument is that if this follows most things, a lot of new owners will lose interest and there will be a lot of hardly used guns on the market in the next couple of years - save your money boys the market will open up soon!

[popeye4]

Yes, but what percentage of these new gun owners will take up shooting as a sport - i.e. shoot their guns on a semi regular basis and consume ammo? My guess is it will only be a small fraction and therefore we will only see modest growth in the real ammo consumption rate.

However, I see this as more of a good thing - more people involved in firearms activities means greater awareness of RKBA and less chance of a municipality shutting down a range because they don't like guns. Heck, we might even get more places to shot! And the ammunition manufactures will have a larger market so they can modernize their equipment to produce better ammo at a lower mfg cost.

Those of us in organized shooting should probably start thinking on how to attract some of these new shooters to our sport. Many will buy new guns, take them to the range, and become frustrated or disinterested due to lack of ability. Setting up orientation/coaching sessions at our ranges on a periodic basis might help get these folks hooked for life.

I know there are quite a few highpower shooters who lament that the sport is not growing, but the opportunities to really learn how to shoot highpower are few and far between. A club I've shot at in Georgia has a well developed training program at the 100 yd line for new highpower shooters, but I've not seen similar programs here in NorCal (just finding a highpower-capable range is enough of a chore). They cover such areas as trigger control, sight picture, natural point of aim, slings, etc, techniques you don't learn shooting once or twice off a bench. It seems that once new shooters start to see their abilities improve, their excitement level also improves.

I suppose the Appleseed project is one way to approach this, but I'd like to think orgainized shooters would be open to recruiting new participants to our sports. Not sure how to get this ball rolling, though....

[KevMorris]

Surplus

I think with people buying a case or two of ammo instead of a box or two these last several months, we will see an ammo surplus 6 months from now as those who stocked up a lot use that ammo.