Pricing on older/rare revolvers

[drkphibr]

This is just an observation/opinion on what I've seen lately with regards to pricing, especially on older or rare revolvers. An asking price is just that, so this is not about seller pricing. This is not meant to be taken as thread crapping on sale prices. Simply an observation on selling prices as they relate to time/length of sale.

I think what we're starting to see is a ceiling on these types of guns. In the past, when a desirable revolver has been listed, they've been snapped up in minutes and usually with a long line of posters requesting to be next if the deal falls through.

Pricing is directly proportional to the selling time, regardless of what the item is for the most part. What once not too long ago was gone in minutes is now hanging around for days/weeks or going unsold. To me that says we've now passed what the market finds reasonable/acceptable for a selling price, even considering the CA "factor". What seems to sell for $1,000 everywhere else goes for $1,500+ here.

I also think there have been big leaps in pricing over the last year to the degree that folks are now assuming it's an automatic that adding hundreds (or thousands in some cases) is justifiable. Maybe, maybe not. The market is what it is and if it sells, it was priced at a level that someone found acceptable. If it doesn't sell, that either means it's too high or the right buyer just hasn't pulled the trigger yet.

I've also noticed over the last 6 months or so the increased posting of reduced pricing. Maybe what we're seeing in the second hand firearms space is comparable to what has happened in the housing market in CA. A big run up to a point and then the apex followed by the decline. Then again, it might just have to do with what is actually being sold.

Just observations and thinking out loud.

[Bigyates]

It is difficult to try and pigeon hole a pricing formula on used/collectable firearms. Condition, disirability, numbers made and numbers on the market will have an effect on the price ( along with the niche buyers interested in that collectable). I don't think the price should increase or decrease dramatically accept for condition as a factor. I think the closer we get to the election with no clear cut front runner the tighter money will become.

[The Gleam]

I think what we're starting to see is a ceiling on these types of guns.

No, likely just the result of a bad economy.

In the past, when a desirable revolver has been listed, they've been snapped up in minutes and usually with a long line of posters requesting to be next if the deal falls through.

Bad economy again, and people spending money on BB semi-auto rifles and the like "while they can still get them" (is the impression). Not as much "collecting" going on right now with all the fun-stuff accessible and the pending doom of "but how much longer". Especially when its thought you'll never have trouble getting standard C&R stuff or revolvers, even under the worse possible bans; I've heard that from some younger folk.

To me that says we've now passed what the market finds reasonable/acceptable for a selling price, even considering the CA "factor". What seems to sell for $1,000 everywhere else goes for $1,500+ here.

Likely still, a result of a bad economy. I hear more gun owners complaining about financial turmoil than ever before; something that was not as common 5 and more years ago. Not everyone has the access to credit cards and the same income as in the past; and with tighter standards on credit, those who built their collections on such devices no longer have that buying power when something pops up unexpectedly.

I've also noticed over the last 6 months or so the increased posting of reduced pricing. Maybe what we're seeing in the second hand firearms space is comparable to what has happened in the housing market in CA.

Or the RESULT of that economy that gave us the balloon in the housing market (which simultaneously was a balloon in credit as a whole; people with $100K limits on credit cards that should not have even been allowed to have a Blockbuster card.

The other part of that is that collecting trends and values of guns seem to go through a 7-Year itch cycle. The price on a rare/collectible gun seems to suddenly jump every 7 to 10 years and it's rarely ever a gradual change. But that also seems to be the time-span for ebb and flow of the economy too.

A big run up to a point and then the apex followed by the decline. Then again, it might just have to do with what is actually being sold.

In that regard yes; not EVERY Colt Python deserves the pricing I've seen people apply. A used common stainless steel late 1980's Colt Python 6" with obvious drag-ring on the cylinder, should not be priced the same as a 3" Combat Python or a perfect 1961 Mint Colt Python with its box. But people might think they have more than what is really there.

There is also the possibility that people may have been desperate for funds, so they were jacking up the asking prices of their guns just to see what they could get; but maybe didn't really want to sell? It was just a "what if" since it costs nothing to posts. If it sells at some ridiculous price, great, but they don't REALLY want to sell it.

You can spot an ad like that a mile away.

Just observations and thinking out loud.

Anything is likely; prices rise and fall, and typically follow wider economic trends, succumbed to political regimes banning or threatening to ban certain types of guns (so a spree on those types of guns grew and that is where the money got spent) or believe it or not - the influence of Hollywood.

Every time some film comes out, if well received, sales of similar models of that gun go up; from as far back as the Dirty Harry/Death Wish films, to the "Arnold" and Sylvester" films of the 1980's (a lot of Desert Eagle sales), Scarface and such, to the Tomb-Raider films, Hitman, Boondock Saints, Heat, Shooter, Underworld, Town, etc.

Even long-time gun owners fall for it; a film like "Quigley Down Under" comes out, and suddenly everyone has an itch to get a Shiloh Sharps 1874 Long Range Rifle. 10 years later, it's like - "What film?" So many Smith Model 29s and Wildeys were purchased on a whim as a "gots to have" then sat un-used/never fired for decades in closets all around the country. It's why you often find so many Model 29-2s in near perfect condition.

So maybe there just haven't been enough revolvers in films lately? Maybe Clint will do another Dirty Harry film before he dies, only this time he'll be saying "The Smith & Wesson .500, the most powerful handgun in all the world - it will turn your head into powder."

If I had a dime for every time someone asked me "Hey, what was that rifle that Val Kilmer was using in the Drive-In shoot-out scene in Heat, the one with the bi-pod - yeah, I want one of those"... I could probably buy an HK-91-A2 with all the dimes collected.