What are tomorrow's Pythons?

[dunndeal]

Try to figure the cost a dollar in buying power in 1982, 30 years ago and compare it to now...not to much of a mark up really..thats the point not yet made, the decline in buying power due to the weakened dollar vs imagined increase in perceived value! See below for a sad reality check on the Entire Python thread! MSRP in 1985 $693! So you would LOSE money calculating present dollar value!! Data from a chart below....

The advantage of the log scale in this case is that we have much greater visibility, and can make much more accurate chart readings, in the recent years. For example, using the top chart you might estimate the multiplier for 1980 at about 2.5. Using the above chart, you can clearly see that it's much closer to 3 (it's actually 2.9). So, $100,000 in 1980 is equivalent to ($100,000 x 2.9=) $290,000 now. And, $10,000 in 2012 has about the same purchasing power as ($10,000 / 2.9=) $3448 in 1980.

Don't dispute your figures but what would the purchase price of an equivalent model S&W .357 have cost in 1982 because it's only worth $600 - $700 now?

[ckprax]

Pythons are beautiful, their actions and finish are superb but they are not rare and I just can't bring myself to pay todays prices for one. A big reason why Pythons are so expensive is because the baby boomers are buying an iconic gun from their youth and since they have money they drive the prices up. Again, pythons are not rare, just sought after.

Pre model # S&W revolvers can get very expensive. Have you seen what an all original registered magnum sells for? You could buy several pythons instead.

I see the short barreled 19 and 66 pulling premiums now since concealed carry is really taking off. A 3" 66 is very expensive and sought after.

I dont see any new production guns becoming the next python. The quality is simply not there.

Who knows, if i could tell the future I wouldnt be working for a living.

[cudakidd]

Don't dispute your figures but what would the purchase price of an equivalent model S&W .357 have cost in 1982 because it's only worth $600 - $700 now?

You would have to use a source like Blue Book of gun Values that lists original MSRP then use a factor to determine a rate of appreciation that would exceed the devaluation of the dollar amount...

For example the Model 19 was built to 1999 at a MSRP of $457. They list the value at 100% as $475 which is a bit low by standards right now but in the ball park. At that price you would have obviously lost money!

So the prices for Pythons today are only slightly ahead of the devaluation rate. Not a great investment compared to say Apple Stock or Silver...

[shooting4life]

Don't buy guns for investment. Buy them because you love them and be happy if they go up in value. I purchased all of these in the last few years and all of them have gone up in value. Also, buy the best condition gun you can.
610 lew Horton (150 made)

627pc "blood work" (300 made)

627pc 8 times (150 made)

646 (150 made)

Pre 17, one of the first 300 made after ww2

520, one of 3000 made, it is nib

[dunndeal]

Don't buy guns for investment. Buy them because you love them and be happy if they go up in value. I purchased all of these in the last few years and all of them have gone up in value. Also, buy the best condition gun you can.
610 lew Horton (150 made)

627pc "blood work" (300 made)

627pc 8 times (150 made)

646 (150 made)

Pre 17, one of the first 300 made after ww2

520, one of 3000 made, it is nib

This!

I didn't buy any of my firearms for investment purposes but rather because I enjoy the shooting sports and I value the ability to defend myself and those I love. Just as I didn't buy our home because it would appreciate but rather because we needed a place to live our lives and store our stuff.

[Wrangler John]

Oh dear, I had Colt revolvers tuned by F. Bob Chow and there is just no comparison with a S&W. The Python is by far and away the best of the lot. Even my Anaconda in .45 Colt, while not a Python, is a shade better than a S&W to my hand. Then again, our personal preference is all that counts. They're all fun.

[INDABZ]

Prolly not going to be anything close to python lore....of course limited run guns do hold some mystic but still don't come close.

Usually anything imported that can be stopped at anytime will increase the quickest.....

The Colt or pony is always worth a few more bux in the long run.....

[G-Man WC]

I don't see what's so special about the Python. I'll take a 586 and be just as happy.

This.
I've never been sucked into the python hype. Better finish, but more moving / internal parts to break than a S&W. I would also take a 686 any day.
-g

[The Gleam]

So the prices for Pythons today are only slightly ahead of the devaluation rate. Not a great investment compared to say Apple Stock or Silver...

Your comparison only uses prime examples of Apple or Silver, whereas one could just as easily have compared this to stocks of AIG, General Motors, Citigroup, Washington Mutual, WorldCom Inc., Enron, Natural Gas, and hundreds of others that were all dogs due to disaster and/or surplus. Just as many that invested in dot-coms, went bankrupt on dot-coms.

Gold and Silver would be sheer luck of a long-term holding. And one would have been very lucky to have had foresight enough to invest in Apple back then, and stuck with it long-term especially back in the 1990s when Apple nearly went bankrupt, (after Jobs bowed out for 12 years) and Microsoft was the ubiquitous king.

Likewise, even someone with the soothsaying abilities and perseverance to stay well invested in Apple, would likely have also been invested in AIG or similar losers, and lost a great deal in 2009.

Just like anything, there are various Pythons of varying values; a Colt Python Combat 3" barrel, "Hunter", or other obscure model will fetch a lot more than a standard Stainless Steel 6" utilitarian example. But you would be hard pressed to find a prime example Smith 586 hold it's own in values against a Python.

Also, the MSRP of $693 was not the typical cost for a Python back then - just look at MSRP on most manufacturer's wesbites now and they are inflated by hundreds of dollars as a cushion to retailers. No, the Python was usually found for around $450 to $550 new. And people were coming in to gun stores in the mid-to-late 1980s to trade them in for those new, fancy Glocks; so others were sucking up Pythons for $250 to $300 piece (or less) as used or trade-ins.

Am I saying guns are a sole object of investment? No. But I saw a lot of people lose big money in 2008/2009 whereas arms, arts, and antiquities which should be a part of anyone's portfolio, retained and continue to gain in value, beating economic decline because somebody always has money to buy, even in the worst of times.

Another point: one can insure such tangibles against loss, but an increase value is not typically a worry; but you can't insure stocks for their losses, and their increase value is always a worry.

On this topic, and interesting read: see below for a link comparing the Colt Single Action Army versus Gold:

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2009-11-05/news/30787500_1_pure-gold-period-gold-gold-piece

[QQQ]

On this topic, and interesting read: see below for a link comparing the Colt Single Action Army versus Gold:

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2009...old-gold-piece

Today an ounce of gold is about $1,090 and a new Colt SAA can be special ordered from Colt's custom shop for about $1,500.

mfw

Also- Mosins.

[Chameleon Loco]

Smith and wesson model 29 because 50 years from now we will still watch the Dirty Harry movies. I'm so happy my dad bought one cause he never sells his guns

[russ69]

I've been at this a long time, not as a collector but as a shooter. Over the years, the one thing that has always been true is that if you buy popular quality guns, the value holds up very well. The key is to buy what you really want and enjoy owning and shooting them. A quality gun will always have some value.

[beetle]

The topic of "guns as investments" is an interesting one. As a pure investment vehicle I don't think guns are that great. Unlike traditional investments there is no "short term" vs "long term" tax rate difference on collectibles. That means whether you've held it for a year or thirty years profit on a gun will be taxed at your current tax rate. For a big gain it might even bump you up into the next tax bracket. In addition for big dollar investment guns it may take awhile to sell, or if you choose to go the route of an auction the selling premiums may be up to 15-20%. The key point is it's probably not a good investment to buy guns purely on the thought you can sell them for a profit. This type of speculation has happened many times over in other "collector" markets with bad results (for example ferraris, etc)

However, as a *hobby* guns might be one of the better ones that will at least hold their value or appreciate. Typically you spend money on hobbies and the purchases go down over time. For example, I also enjoy photography but $3000 spent on a camera today might only be worth $1500 next year, and in 3-5 years it would be hard to give that equipment away. Same is true with computers or audio equipment. Equipment bought for these hobbies will all go down over time.

For guns though, it's a hobby where there is a good chance that the guns I buy will keep their value or appreciate. So I get the personal enjoyment of participating in the hobby AND the guns might go up.

So what criteria might help keep a gun's value or appreciate over time?

1) Brand name -- In terms of collectibilty the best out there would be Colt. I'm not saying that Colt makes the best gun, but Colt has the biggest collector base and so there is more demand for Colt weapons. Take for example a WW2 1911. All things being equal (i.e. not a rare or special gun), just a run of the mill pistol issued to a GI, the Colt will bring in anywhere from $500-$1000 more than a similar gun from Remington Rand or Ithaca.

If not Colt, I would stick with other established brands that have collector followings such as Smith and Wesson, HK and on a lessor note perhaps Beretta.

2) Decide if you are going to collect historic or modern guns. The advantage of historic guns is that there is already an established collector following and market, so it's easier to sell and values are more established. The disadvantage of of historic guns is that since the market is already established the prices can already be high.

3) For modern guns find guns that are produced in low quantity but high quality. Unfortunately that means guns that are relatively expensive even today when compared to their peers, but these have the highest chance to appreciate.

4) Stay away from tacky commemoratives. I'm talking about standard guns that have ugly emblems painted on them. "234th birthday of the highway patrol!". This area is a bit tricky, as there are some very special variants that make good candidates.

In general, if the manufacturer takes the effort to make something that is really different, unique then it might be a good purchase. Basically you should be able to see the quality and extra costs involved in this gun. It should be made in small numbers, perhaps by the manufacturer's custom shop.

An example of special edition vs tacky commemorative from the same manufacturer.

Beretta released the Billennium to commemorate the year 2000. 2000 guns were made, with 1000 sent to the US. Unlike the standard 92 series, the safety was moved to the original frame location. It also manufactured from all steel (vs alumium) for the standard 92/M9.



When it first came out the Billennium was around $1100 or so. Today a NIB billennium is approaching the $2800 range (and I've seen a perfect specimen sell for $3000). As you can see, the Billennium is special/different enough that it should continue to appreciate over time.

Compare this to the factory 20th anniversary M9


This recently sold for pretty much what a new Beretta will sell for today. so virtually zero value from this commemorative.

and last but not least, stay away from third party commemoratives. these are the "franklin mint" of guns. These will never appreciate. This monstrosity is from the "American Heritage Foundation" whatever that is.



5) Factory high-end variations are good targets. The HK USP Match was an expensive variant compared to the standard USP. Today a Match might be worth over $3000 while a used USP might be in the $800 range.

Alright, enough with the traits, what modern gun will appreciate significantly over time? It's hard to say -- my guesses

* Colt Gold Cup -- established market of collectors, high end of the Colt line.
* HK Mark 23 -- established market of HK collectors, discontinued, hard to get in CA.
* glock 17 Gen 1 -- if you can find one. in 10-20 years people will say "wow! the first glock!"
* Sig P210 Legend -- if Sig only makes these for a few years they will become a accepted variant by P210 collectors
* Colt 100 year anniversary 1911 -- this one I'm on the fence. it kind of straddles the line between factory special and tacky commeorative. I'm leaning towards it appreciating because it was made by the Colt Custom Shop and is actually based on the colt WWI design (so it's not just a rollmark on their production guns)

anyways those are my guesses. unfortunately I can't think of any $500 guns that will turn into $1500 guns.... If you want more of a "sure bet" my advice is to go with an all correct ww2 1911. These have and will continue to appreciate in my opinion.



Interesting topic!

[Agustav]

Great write-up Beetle!

I've always said ppl will always pay more for prancing horse on a product. Wether it's a firearm or an automobile...

[The King]

Kimber of Oregon rifles are skyrockting in value.
NY Kimber would still own the .22 market except for the flood of ODCMP rifles.
Pre 64 winchesters have cooled, but will always be preferrable to the modern arms.
Marlins prior to the ownership change look and feel better than the new ones that I have seen.
I THINK that nobody ever made a ton of money investing in guns, just some people purchased quality, didn't abuse it, held it for a long time.

2 cents provide by 99%er