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  • m3b
    Member
    • Oct 2005
    • 146

    Ammo Industry Prepares for Slide

    Ammo Industry Prepares for Slide

    Jul 23, 1:56 PM (ET)

    By RICHARD LARDNER

    WASHINGTON (AP) - The Lake City Army Ammunition Plant in Independence, Mo., produces nearly 1.4 billion bullets a year, a dizzying figure driven by the demands of war.

    "It's actually mind-boggling," said Karen Davies, Lake City's general manager.

    The question is, for how long? Although no one knows when the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan will end, Davies and other ammunition industry executives understand the heavy orders won't last forever.

    So as they churn out the military's most essential pieces of hardware - and millions hope for an end to the war - ammunition makers are preparing for a downturn in business.

    They worry about a return to the post-Cold War period when the Pentagon slashed spending for small-caliber rifle rounds and other munitions, forcing suppliers to cut payrolls, mothball manufacturing equipment and lose hard-to-get environmental permits. Some closed their doors.

    "The demand is fast when it comes, and then it can drop off very quickly," Davies said.

    After the Sept. 11 attacks, when the need for ammunition spiked, the Pentagon scrambled to meet requirements. Nearly $93 million in taxpayer money was spent overhauling domestic facilities. Foreign suppliers, including one from Israel, were called in to fill the gaps.

    Military officials now talk about a need to protect the industrial base, but they also say it makes no sense to spend money for bullets and bombs the troops might not need.

    "We have to recognize we aren't producing ammunition for the sake of producing ammunition," said Bob Kowalski, business manager for maneuver ammunition systems at the Army's Picatinny Arsenal in northwest New Jersey.

    President Bush is under pressure to begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq early next year. The 2008 elections, which could result in Democrats running both the White House and Congress, add to the uncertainty.

    "You don't want to go down to nothing and then say, 'Oh my gosh! We've got to ramp up again,'" said Davies.

    While high-profile weapon systems such as tanks, jet fighters and aircraft carriers dominate the public's attention, the U.S. military would be unable to fight without rifle cartridges, grenades, mortars and other explosives lacking the cachet of their costlier cousins.

    Producing this firepower is a network of public and private facilities that has changed dramatically over the past three decades.

    In 1978, there were 318 plants in the United States involved in ammunition production. By 1995, six years after the Berlin Wall fell, there were fewer than 100, according to Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va.

    U.S. spending for ammunition dropped 78 percent.

    "Anytime the industry shrinks, you lose expertise and skill," said Thompson, who more than a dozen years ago co-authored a study of the ammunition industry.

    Officials at the military's Joint Munitions Command in Rock Island, Ill., say there are now more than 170 commercial ammunition companies that make everything from gunpowder to grenades.

    Adding to that base are 10 weapons production plants, including Lake City, that are owned by the government but managed by contractors. Three others are owned and run by the government.

    Of these 13 facilities, four will close by 2011, victims of the military base closing round conducted by the Pentagon in 2005.

    The experience at Lake City illustrates the renewed attention paid to ammunition producers. Built in 1941, Lake City is operated by Alliant Techsystems, a multibillion-dollar weapons company headquartered in Edina, Minn.

    Spread over nearly 4,000 acres, Lake City is the largest producer of the small-caliber ammunition used by the Army and the other military branches. General Dynamics manufactures an additional 300 million rounds a year.

    The bullets come in different types and sizes; the 5.56 mm round, used in the standard-issue M-16 rifle, is the most frequently fired by U.S. forces.

    When Alliant began managing Lake City in April 2000, it had 650 employees there making 350 million small-caliber rounds annually. After the United States invaded Afghanistan, orders increased and continued to escalate after the war in Iraq began in 2003.

    Alliant now has 2,500 workers in Lake City making four times as much ammunition as it did seven years ago. Current output is 120 million rounds a month - nearly 4 million bullets a day.

    Profits have gone up as well. In May, Alliant's Ammunition Systems Group, which also operates a government plant in Radford, Va., reported sales of $1.28 billion, a 15 percent increase over the prior fiscal year, and an operating profit of $113 million.

    Every gun round coming out of Lake City costs an average of 35 cents to make, according to military officials.

    The Lake City deal is Alliant's largest single contract, accounting for 14 percent of the company's total sales.

    Alan Beuster, chief of the Joint Munitions Command's industrial preparedness division, said his office is studying plans for minimum production rates that would keep manufacturing lines viable for longer periods.

    "I think it's something that needs attention and we're giving it attention," Beuster said. "Are we in total desperation and ready to jump off a bridge? No."

    Paradoxically, peace may be as profitable as combat to certain sectors of the ammunition industry. The military uses more gun rounds in training than in combat, a ratio that provides a cushion for Alliant and others, according to defense industry analysts.

    Alliant also can sell its bullets to the law enforcement and sporting communities, an option not available for companies manufacturing tank rounds and artillery shells.

    The phrase "soft landing" has emerged in discussions between government and industry representatives to describe a gradual ebb in ammunition demand that would give suppliers time to prepare for the shift.

    "The objective is to have a graceful decline in production," said Richard Palaschak of the Munitions Industrial Base Task Force, an industry group in Arlington, Va.

    But that's not as easy as it sounds. Despite an annual Defense Department budget of $624 billion, there always are more programs and initiatives than there is money.

    Most ammunition suppliers are smaller, specialized firms that lack the influence wielded by larger sectors of the defense industry.

    "As the intensity of the conflicts decreases, it's just natural for the planners at the Defense Department to look at other places to spend money," said William Holmes, president of Day & Zimmerman Munitions and Defense in Philadelphia. "It's the squeaky wheel that gets greased."

    Holmes has been on both sides of the equation. He retired from the Army in 1996 as a brigadier general; his final assignment was as deputy chief of staff for ammunition.

    "We see requirements being stable for the next year or so, but we've got some concerns as we look out a few years," he said. "We don't want to fall off the cliff like we did before."
    Actual AP news article on Excite

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Article has a lot of stats and numbers on the military's use of small arms ammo, but it is annoying how often the author refers solely to "bullets".

    This is of interest - "Every gun round coming out of Lake City costs an average of 35 cents to make, according to military officials".

    The following statement sounds odd, wonder if it is true, "The military uses more gun rounds in training than in combat"? If so, then why is Lake City now producing 1.4 billion rounds per year and not the 320 million rounds pre-9/11?
    Last edited by m3b; 07-24-2007, 7:39 AM.
  • #2
    xenophobe
    In Memoriam
    • Jan 2006
    • 7069

    Oh wow... that sounds like mil-spec 5.56 might become very plentiful in the next year or two!

    Comment

    • #3
      ghost
      Veteran Member
      • Oct 2006
      • 4626

      Originally posted by xenophobe
      Oh wow... that sounds like mil-spec 5.56 might become very plentiful in the next year or two!

      and hopefully prices will go down somewhat.

      Comment

      • #4
        bear308
        Senior Member
        • Jan 2006
        • 849

        It's actually a ironic little paradox the dems are in. Make Bush recall the troops = flood the civi market with cheap ammo for military type small arms.
        NRA - Life Member
        Head ***** @ Firing-Line Burbank.
        Firing-Line Indoor Ranges
        If you have suggestions, comments, or complaints, feel free to contact me at info at burbankrange.com

        Comment

        • #5
          xenophobe
          In Memoriam
          • Jan 2006
          • 7069

          Originally posted by ghost
          and hopefully prices will go down somewhat.
          Depends on how quickly military contracts fall off.

          I could care less about lake city... I want Black Hills to offer Mk262 to the public again.

          Comment

          • #6
            Spiggy
            Calguns Addict
            • Mar 2006
            • 8688

            SURPLUS! *waves the surplus sign*
            Originally posted by AJAX22
            Anti gun BS...

            Finger print recognition is one more thing that keeps your killamajig from performing its killimafunction

            Comment

            • #7
              Dump1567
              Senior Member
              • Sep 2002
              • 1621

              They'll probably just cut back on production & keep the prices the same. It would be nice to get some cheap surplus ammo, but with material costs, I don't see it.

              I will try to do my part, but I don't have much use for tank or arte shells.
              Watch & Pray

              Comment

              • #8
                Novadesigns
                Senior Member
                • May 2007
                • 1181

                This is par for the course... they may make a big deal out of it, but its good for us consumers who can barely afford to shoot... or even find the supplies we need to make our own ammunition!

                I sure hope this drives prices down again.
                NRA
                IDPA
                USPSA

                Comment

                • #9
                  OptionX3
                  Member
                  • Nov 2005
                  • 344

                  I don't think ammo price will drop anytime soon (<2yrs) Manufactures will still have to fill depleted US ammo cache around the world. I certainly hope and wish for cheap surplus, but have a feeling that it will come around when $1.50 gas and $200k so. cal. homes are available.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    SJshooter
                    Member
                    • Dec 2005
                    • 268

                    The idea that we are not going to be engaged in military conflict for very much longer and that bullet production will drop off as soon as Bush is gone is too naive to even comment on.
                    Smith & Wesson 17-6, 586-7, 66-2, 681-1, 36, 27-2, 640
                    Photos: http://bushnell.smugmug.com/Smith%20&%20Wesson

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      BigDogatPlay
                      Calguns Addict
                      • Jun 2007
                      • 7362

                      Originally posted by SJshooter
                      The idea that we are not going to be engaged in military conflict for very much longer and that bullet production will drop off as soon as Bush is gone is too naive to even comment on.
                      +1 on that take.

                      If the appeasers and peace at any cost crowd think that doing a cut and run from Iraq is going to end the WOT, or cause North Korea, Iran and China from screwing with us, they have another thing coming.
                      -- Rifle, Pistol, Shotgun

                      Not a lawyer, just a former LEO proud to have served.

                      Americans have the right and advantage of being armed - unlike the citizens of other countries whose governments are afraid to trust the people with arms. -- James Madison

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        maxicon
                        Veteran Member
                        • Oct 2005
                        • 4661

                        Regardless of military demand, the prices of copper, brass, and lead are still higher than in years past, and those won't recover, I'm guessing, due to China's manufacturing demands.

                        If we ramp down the GWOT, prices will drop, and surplus may become available, but it's unlikely to return to what it was.
                        sigpic
                        NRA Life Member

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          GUN FREAK
                          Member
                          • Mar 2007
                          • 199

                          Originally posted by maxicon
                          Regardless of military demand, the prices of copper, brass, and lead are still higher than in years past, and those won't recover, I'm guessing, due to China's manufacturing demands.

                          If we ramp down the GWOT, prices will drop, and surplus may become available, but it's unlikely to return to what it was.


                          I Agree

                          Copper are going trough the roof. People are stealing copper pipes out of public bath rooms. Prices are here to stay unless China stops growing.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Socal858
                            Senior Member
                            • Jul 2006
                            • 2177

                            let me know when houses go back to 300k and gas to $1.50

                            Comment

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