AW ban expiration and crime

[SixPointEight]

I'm doing a speech about the NRA/gun control, which I've mentioned once before, but I can't find the thread now. Anyways, this question is more specific, I've tried google, but I can't seem to find solid numbers about the crime rate before and after the federal assault weapons ban expired.

I am pretty sure there was no change, or it went down, but I can't find sources to back it up with, and I need them lol

[audihenry]

That's because there are NO solid figures: both sides of it fudge the numbers for their liking. There are so many other factors, such as increased funding in other areas of law enforcement and so on, that you can't simply connect the two.

Remember: correlation is NOT causation!

[SixPointEight]

I'm quite aware correlation isn't causation. But the lack of any correlation would also indicate a lack of causation.

IE, if there's no correlation between high levels of "assault weapon" ownership and high levels of gun crime, then high levels of "assault weapon" ownership could not CAUSE high levels of gun crime.

[Librarian]

Best we have is FBI UCR.

For example, in 2003, the total number of murders committed with rifles was 390. No way to tell if any of those were 'assault weapons'.

But it's a moot point. Since the 1994 law did not make anyone turn in any so-called 'assault weapons' there really shouldn't be any difference petween pre-1994 and post-1994. And despite Feinstein's griping, manufacturers sold EBRs in non-assault-weapon configuration the whole ten years.

Look at 2007's 'homicide data table 7'.

Again, there's no way to distinguish 'aw' rifles from any other. 2003 rifles were 2.71% of the known murder weapons. That moved up to 3% in 2007. That's where it pretty much always is.

[a1c]

Crime statistics can't be used either by pro-gun nor gun control camps to claim anything.

The crime rate has been going down consistently for decades already. Lots of different factors. You could use the declining rate to claim that the AW ban expiration had no impact on crime. Just like the gun control activists will use handpicked statistics in some cities to show that violence is linked to handguns (which is what they're doing right now).

[SixPointEight]

That's the problem with statistics, you can say whatever you want with them.

[slik556]

I don't know how long you have to prepare for this speech but if can read fast, this book may help.
More guns, less crime: understanding crime and gun-control laws
By John R. Lott.
I have read it and although a tough read it will give you some answers to the questions you ask..
Good luck

http://books.google.com/books?id=K6dIvTFsDMkC&dq=john+lott+more+guns+less+crime&printsec=frontcover&source=bn&hl=en&ei=g9AMS4_CK5K4swOQwsinAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CBoQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=&f=false

[SixPointEight]

I don't know how long you have to prepare for this speech but if can read fast, this book may help.
More guns, less crime: understanding crime and gun-control laws
By John R. Lott.
I have read it and although a tough read it will give you some answers to the questions you ask..
Good luck

http://books.google.com/books?id=K6d...age&q=&f=false

Not much now. Procrastinated a bit. But I might read that anyways, thanks.

[Canute]

You might try Howard Nemerov's Blog for some ideas.
IMHO, neither side of the gun debate can use crime rates and gun ownership rates because they're basically unrelated.
Rural areas have a lot more guns but a lot less crime, in general, than do cities. It doesn't prove the more guns=>less crime theory, but it should at least show that they're not linked.
Lots of poor uneducated people without dignity or prospects of improving their situation, now that leads to crime.

[PolishMike]

It is almost impossible to find reliable statistics for an issue that is sooooo politically charged. There is no neutral party that cares.

[Cokebottle]

manufacturers sold EBRs in non-assault-weapon configuration the whole ten years.

I would really like to put together a flash "quiz" to put online... "Test your knowledge of assault weapons".
Basic, 100 photographs of various rifles and pistols, with a simple "Yes/No" check box.
No "trick" questions (other than perhaps a bullet button on some AK platform pictures)... but things that really are stupid in the eyes of the law, such as a featureless build with a legal 30 round mag, BB-less AK with a 10-rounder, etc...

Might open some eyes when they realize how screwed up the laws are.

[IrishPirate]

what's funny is the DOJ is required by law to make a public document showing the crimes commited with guns, broken down by the type of gun used, and also by race/ethnicity. the funny part is that no one is able to find that document. it's actually a part of the AW ban law....so i guess the state has been breaking its own law! someone forward this to the nearest lawyer!