Gun Investment Question

[tomk556]

If it wasn’t CA I’d sooner recommend doing that with a common ammo caliber and hoping 9mm you but for 25 cents a round increases to 40 cents a round. I wouldn’t do it though. Apart from weird wins like Flemming sears back in the day I’d say your money is better in an index fund. I wouldn’t do a draganov or anything weapony either- selling something that gains value by becoming banned is a pain like a registered AW. Others are right who say most people like cheap 500 guns and buy and sell for minimal gain or loss.

[aeromech]

There have been a few threads here from older people wanting to sell off their collection. I’d imagine you could do quite well buying a complete collection.

[D.A.V.I.D.]

very risky especially in that time. Basically have to hope something stops getting made or banned from import and then gets a cult following.

[The Gleam]

My experience in being around a gun shop almost daily is that I don?t think investing in guns is a smart idea. I have in the last few years seen so many older folks that have really nice gun collection and need to sell them either not be able to sell them or not get a profit for them. It is really hit or miss in what guns have remained popular and command a premium.

If you buy 20 thousand worth of guns which isn?t a huge collection and then something happens in your life and you need cash asap it is going be hard to get that money out of them quickly.

I would recommend gold or silver. 20 grand worth of gold is not a huge amount and would be easy to hide. Yet; if something were to happen and you need to get cash asap you could walk into to many shops and walk out with your cash same day

Gold is a terrible investment, and contradicts your comments on guns.

The RIGHT type of gun purchases, when approached as an informed and researched purchase, combined with opportunity and time, and the experience of what makes for a gun that will outperform the S&P-500 year over year, have far outperformed gold as an investment.

You should no more run willy-nilly and ignorant about buying any other investments, purchasing any old stock because of trends, rumors, tips, volume, or media-hype (perfect example would be GM yesterday/today) than you should go off buying any old pedestrian high-volume common production guns because of popularity and ever expect relevant return on that investment. Same could be said about guns that are already deemed 'collectible' which will only ever be a hedge against inflation - but certainly better than cash or gold.

Gold is not only an unproductive asset, it's even harder to sell than are guns, when/if necessary, and to do so at investment level profit that goes beyond simple hedge against inflation that devalues cash. Gold does not perform all that well in the latter regard.

For that matter, anyone that ever 'needs' to sell an investment vehicle for fast cash or because they were strapped; well, that wasn't ever really an investment in the first place. Thinking that way is synonomous with gamblers and day-traders who can never time their buy/sell schemes to come out anywhere ahead in the end.

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[The Gleam]

The fact that you do not already know the answer means you should not be playing that game.

This is the only correct answer in this thread.

Why?

Because you would not go blind and ignorant into the stock market, bond market, options, commodities, fine-arts, antiques, luxury watches and jewelry, collectible toys, numismatics, rare cars, rare books, collectible shoes, real-estate, and expect to do well.

You would research financial statements, read books, build a reference library, examine prior outcomes and trends throughout history of similar items, noting intrinsic value versus hype (staying away from nonense like Beanie-Babies, false 'limited edition', signed prints, Nikola, or Enron) and look to areas that point to replicating for some such other investment vehicle on which you are focusing that is exhibiting current repetition of that trend. You would examine 5, 10, and 15-year trends, keep track of weekly auction closings of like-and-kind items, know your industry/item of interest and operate only within your circle of competence.

By example? Who couldn't see, circa 1998-2003 that the Mateba Unica would mirror the meteoric rise in value that the Webley-Fosbery experienced, but even more so due to lesser production numbers - and buy several at $850 a piece or so?

Nor would you merely invest on someone else's 'tips' on stocks or any other such vehicle, because they won't be there to tell you when their previous good tip (which has an expiration date) has exhausted its best performance life or interest, and should be sold, or the right time to sell.

Don't invest uninformed in anything, and don't merely try to do that on tips.

That's just called gambling. A game.

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[The Gleam]

How are you going to determine that the rifles you buy are worth the investment?

Faking K98K types has become a big problem. As values increase so do the amount of fakes.

Before you spend a dime on a rifle do your homework. Buy the books related to that particular type.

Only after you educate yourself should you start looking.

Exactly!

Just as one would do with any investment protocol, whether stocks, bonds, fine arts, antiques, or real-estate - even if you were a drug dealer!!

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[Like2fly]

Gold is a terrible investment, and contradicts your comments on guns.

The RIGHT type of gun purchases, when approached as an informed and researched purchase, combined with opportunity and time, and the experience of what makes for a gun that will outperform the S&P-500 year over year, have far outperformed gold as an investment.

You should no more run willy-nilly and ignorant about buying any other investments, purchasing any old stock because of trends, rumors, tips, volume, or media-hype (perfect example would be GM yesterday/today) than you should go off buying any old pedestrian high-volume common production guns because of popularity and ever expect relevant return on that investment. Same could be said about guns that are already deemed 'collectible' which will only ever be a hedge against inflation - but certainly better than cash or gold.

Gold is not only an unproductive asset, it's even harder to sell than are guns, when/if necessary, and to do so at investment level profit that goes beyond simple hedge against inflation that devalues cash. Gold does not perform all that well in the latter regard.

For that matter, anyone that ever 'needs' to sell an investment vehicle for fast cash or because they were strapped; well, that wasn't ever really an investment in the first place. Thinking that way is synonomous with gamblers and day-traders who can never time their buy/sell schemes to come out anywhere ahead in the end.

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You say:

The RIGHT type of gun purchases, when approached as an informed and researched purchase, combined with opportunity and time, and the experience of what makes for a gun that will outperform the S&P-500 year over year, have far outperformed gold as an investment.

Of course if you hand pick a few guns out of all available, you may get a distorted view of great returns, compared to an index like all 500 companies in the S&P 500. Just as easy to say that ?the right individual stock when approached as an informed and researched purchase, combined with opportunity and time, yada yada will out perform some other broad index.? Not comparing apples to apples here. Across the board and averaged out stock returns will ?blow away? (pun intended) investments in guns.

That said if this $10K to $20K is ?fun money? that you are not relying on getting a return (on or of) investment than go at it and enjoy. If this is real investment money that you need to do well with than you should not be targeting (pun again) the gun market for best returns.

[Capybara]

All of the smartest money guys I know agree that guns are for shooting, not making money with. Research it historically and you would likely make a much better return investing in better financial instruments than guns.

A few people get lucky but overall, I think investing in guns, if you actually are treating it as an investment, is foolish. I bought 10 SKS when they were $199 at J&G, I sold them four years later for $700-$800 each and most were still in Cosmoline, I hadn't even cleaned them up. SKS were hot for about year and still kind of are. But that was pure luck. Not investing.

[hermosabeach]

The way to make money is ugly ducklings


Example
67 camero
Dodge charger w/6 pack

Everyone knows these cars.....

There are cars that are cheaper and have the potential to increase....

Say a 1977-1984 el Camino.

Or the mondial ferarri

Things that have already become Uber popular are not a way to make money

It can be, but more risk


Will WW1&2 1911 be worth much in 10-20 years?

Yes or OK boomer????

[hermosabeach]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hoA-5tWihic

[The Gleam]

All of the smartest money guys I know agree that guns are for shooting, not making money with. Research it historically and you would likely make a much better return investing in better financial instruments than guns.

A few people get lucky but overall, I think investing in guns, if you actually are treating it as an investment, is foolish. I bought 10 SKS when they were $199 at J&G, I sold them four years later for $700-$800 each and most were still in Cosmoline, I hadn't even cleaned them up. SKS were hot for about year and still kind of are. But that was pure luck. Not investing.

All of the smartest money guys know nothing about investing in firearms. It's not their sphere of knowledge, so of course, if they dabbled in that arena halfassed, they would lose money - no different than anyone that dabbles in the stock-market halfassed.

My particular gun investments have outperformed the S&P-500 (which I track by large percentages) as well as most anyone's 401K.

As I said above, if you just go out and buy a bunch of any old guns, with no applied purpose or forethought - no, you will not have a viable return on your investment any more than if you just run slipshod through a list of stocks as start picking them because you like the names, they are popular, they are cheap, or because the media says so.

I can look at most people's stock picks, even if they merely track the S&P500, carry a Vanguard or Blackrock fund, and I can still point to faults and mistakes no different than I can point to most "money guys" in how they would make egregious errors if they tried to invest in guns - and most ALL OF THEM would make fatal mistakes doing so.

Just like the stock-market; if you are willing to put in the time, the research, and REALLY THINK beyond your sphere of acceptance or knowledge, or merely what you like, or what's popular, ANY discipline can be a lucrative investment. Instead of following the drama, stick to Ben Graham, Warren Buffet, and Charlie Munger (rest his soul) principles, and be patient.

But discipline and patience is the key, and most 'investors' have neither. The same can be said for investing in either stocks or guns.

For that matter, ask most people that don't invest in the stock market about what they think of it, and they'll say the same exact sour-grape nonsense as some people will peddle about investing in firearms - that the stock market is a fool's game, a gamble, a way to lose money - just as you will hear from people that can't grasp that investing in firearms is just as lucrative.

Their lack of investing in their investing is the problem!

Because such people will think buying a bunch of Glocks, P365s, RIA 1911s, an overpriced but common Colt Python (now - not 30 years ago), and some John Wayne Commemorative Winchester Model 94 is "investing".

I personally find the ineptitude cast as fact, on both counts, stocks or guns - fascinating.

Dumb people, unwilling to self-educate, but willing to gamble - barring a winning lottery ticket - will remain poor.

Your 'luck' with the SKSes didn't need to be luck, if in fact you took the history of the obvious in comparison to other surplus gone dry, applied that associative thinking, especially when everyone could easily see the writing on the wallas surplus was (and continued) to dry up, and proactively bought those SKSes with purpose.

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[The Gleam]

You say:

The RIGHT type of gun purchases, when approached as an informed and researched purchase, combined with opportunity and time, and the experience of what makes for a gun that will outperform the S&P-500 year over year, have far outperformed gold as an investment.

Of course if you hand pick a few guns out of all available, you may get a distorted view of great returns, compared to an index like all 500 companies in the S&P 500. Just as easy to say that ?the right individual stock when approached as an informed and researched purchase, combined with opportunity and time, yada yada will out perform some other broad index.? Not comparing apples to apples here. Across the board and averaged out stock returns will ?blow away? (pun intended) investments in guns.

That said if this $10K to $20K is ?fun money? that you are not relying on getting a return (on or of) investment than go at it and enjoy. If this is real investment money that you need to do well with than you should not be targeting (pun again) the gun market for best returns.

As I said, what time are you willing to put into investing in BOTH?

Do you really think it should be one over the other? Over anything else that would be investment worthy?

Does one collect data and retain that knowledge so that when they come across a rare Handel lamp at a garage sale for $10.00, a Hockney at a thrift shop for $40.00, a box of antique carnival or Fenton glassware for $25 at a local swap-meet - they know an investment when they see it, and don't simply sally past a bargain buy of the century? Would you know a Yenko if you saw one under tarps and blankets, collecting dust?

So pre-ubiquitous internet, mid-1990s, before any Yahoo could simply Google something to investigate its value, and you walk into a podunk gun store and see an all matching 1936 Registered Magnum priced as a basic Model 27 at $650, your knowledge/experience/education allows you to jump on it without thinking twice? (The latter really happened - that was me - that was no luck or mistake.)

Sure, if you are a passive fool about your money and only wish to invest passively, you dump your money into the company 401K and tune out to watch TV every night. That's not 'investing' to me.

I bought 4000 shares of Monster beverage at $2.00 a share in November 2008 - and still have it all - in addition to having bought hundreds of shares here and there in single dollar digits as it made it's way to it's current standing.

That was no mistake; I predicted that by associative thinking.

Same could be said for my long-time holdings in Amazon, IBM, OLN, Caterpillar, PACCAR, BRK-B, Goldman Sachs, Intuitive Surgical, Blue Owl Capital Corp, Lockheed Martin and a dozen others that yes - singular stock picking - that outperformed the S&P-500 and DOW - no different than my singular and particular 'gun picking' has done.

That was no different than when I was buying NIB Colt Pythons hand over fist back in the late 1980's and early 1990's for mere low-side hundreds of dollars.

Same can be said about the Matebas, the SIG P210s, the HK-P7s, P9s, Walther P88s, certain Randalls, Detonics, the LAR Grizzlies, Colt Z40s, COP 357s, Semmerlings, Wildeys, certain S&W N-Frame guns, numerous surplus semi-auto rifles, among hosts of others - and yada, yada as someone uninformed may say - all at just a fraction of what they sell for today because my awareness and associative thinking, and sphere of knowledge KNEW these guns would skyrocket in value.

I specifically chose certain guns, and focused on those. And yes, they have all performed as investments incredibly well, better than many stocks or a blanket S&P-500 account.

Across the board and averaged out stock returns will 'blow away' (pun intended) investments in guns.

I don't call aggregate investing in guns investing anymore than I call 'average out' aggregate blanketing investment in stocks investing in the stock market either.

The following are photos of SOME of my very deliberate, specific, and particularly chosen gun investments when very few people would have called them investments.

Such people would have just called them 'tools' as we so often hear here on Calguns.

I don't think I paid more than $300 for any one of those COP-357s, nor more than $850 for anyone of those HK-P7s- except I think it was $1,250 for that factory Nickel P7M13, and about the same can be said for all these others. Not one of those Matebas cost me more than $895, one I bought for $700 when it was NIB. I think I paid $450 and $500 for the two Coonans. Neither one of those Wildeys had cost me more than $500 each. None of those SVT40s were more than $400. Not one of those Colt Z40s were more than $350.

But no, my garage full of Craftsman, Snap-On, Makita, and Matco tools were never meant to be investments, and I never looked at those tools as investments either. I never had any expectation they would rise in value other than by inflationary rate, though some of my older Craftsman tools from the 1960s/1970s have since surely have grown in perceived value beyond what inflation has provided alone.

So it can be said, that people who only think of guns as 'tools' are not likely not investing in guns, nor would they do so properly even if they had tried investing in guns. Same could be said for someone that might invest in 'signed prints' versus original artwork - prints are merely tools of aesthetics, originals are investment grade, especially if you can see the potential before anyone else does - and your knowledge on the topic won't fail.


























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[Like2fly]

Some nice guns (investments?) there. It appears we agree that investing in cherry picked or isolated examples guns as investments can show instances with great returns as with any collectible from comics to baseball cards, if done with knowledge research, etc. The OP does not sound like he will be in a position of knowledge/experience to hit it out of the park by jumping in with his $10 to $20K start. He may net a profit with some guns, but if he is really looking for good returns there are plenty of other higher return/lower risk investments available that require less knowledge or expertise and less experience or effort than investing in firearms.

[tomk556]

All of the smartest money guys know nothing about investing in firearms. It's not their sphere of knowledge, so of course, if they dabbled in that arena halfassed, they would lose money - no different than anyone that dabbles in the stock-market halfassed.

My particular gun investments have outperformed the S&P-500 (which I track by large percentages) as well as most anyone's 401K.

As I said above, if you just go out and buy a bunch of any old guns, with no applied purpose or forethought - no, you will not have a viable return on your investment any more than if you just run slipshod through a list of stocks as start picking them because you like the names, they are popular, they are cheap, or because the media says so.

I can look at most people's stock picks, even if they merely track the S&P500, carry a Vanguard or Blackrock fund, and I can still point to faults and mistakes no different than I can point to most "money guys" in how they would make egregious errors if they tried to invest in guns - and most ALL OF THEM would make fatal mistakes doing so.

Just like the stock-market; if you are willing to put in the time, the research, and REALLY THINK beyond your sphere of acceptance or knowledge, or merely what you like, or what's popular, ANY discipline can be a lucrative investment. Instead of following the drama, stick to Ben Graham, Warren Buffet, and Charlie Munger (rest his soul) principles, and be patient.

But discipline and patience is the key, and most 'investors' have neither. The same can be said for investing in either stocks or guns.

For that matter, ask most people that don't invest in the stock market about what they think of it, and they'll say the same exact sour-grape nonsense as some people will peddle about investing in firearms - that the stock market is a fool's game, a gamble, a way to lose money - just as you will hear from people that can't grasp that investing in firearms is just as lucrative.

Their lack of investing in their investing is the problem!

Because such people will think buying a bunch of Glocks, P365s, RIA 1911s, an overpriced but common Colt Python (now - not 30 years ago), and some John Wayne Commemorative Winchester Model 94 is "investing".

I personally find the ineptitude cast as fact, on both counts, stocks or guns - fascinating.

Dumb people, unwilling to self-educate, but willing to gamble - barring a winning lottery ticket - will remain poor.

Your 'luck' with the SKSes didn't need to be luck, if in fact you took the history of the obvious in comparison to other surplus gone dry, applied that associative thinking, especially when everyone could easily see the writing on the wallas surplus was (and continued) to dry up, and proactively bought those SKSes with purpose.

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I?m very curious by this honestly. Can you share what guns you?re talking about specifically and the circumstances surrounding it? Can you also speak to the period you?re basing the comparison to the S&P on?

[The Gleam]

Some nice guns (investments?) there. It appears we agree that investing in cherry picked or isolated examples guns as investments can show instances with great returns as with any collectible from comics to baseball cards, if done with knowledge research, etc. The OP does not sound like he will be in a position of knowledge/experience to hit it out of the park by jumping in with his $10 to $20K start. He may net a profit with some guns, but if he is really looking for good returns there are plenty of other higher return/lower risk investments available that require less knowledge or expertise and less experience or effort than investing in firearms.

Absolutely agree - we're actually on the same page in that recommendation, and as I said above, AR15Barrels had the best advice.

I would sum that up as; if one is not willing to invest in the effort of investing, do not invest in anything - hire or appoint someone to do that for you.

It's the same reason I'm so reluctant to give people stock 'tips' - because I won't be there 3 years down the road to tell them what they should do THEN with that 'tip'. And if they sell it too early, or not sell it at all, get jitters or sell at a loss merely because they need cash, when they're own willful incompetence gets the best of them and they lose money - they blame the person that gave them the 'tip'.

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