John Lott?

[tman]

I was thinking about picking up one of his books. I flipped through The Bias Against Guns at Borders and thought about buying it.

Seems like he is obviously on our side. Does he do a good job? Is he straight-forward, or does he unscrupulously manipulate the facts in his favor?

Also, if anyone would like to, feel free to recommend some other pro-gun authors or books.


Thanks.

[radioactivelego]

Buy that book and Unintended Consequences on amazon.

[hoffmang]

He is definitely on our side. The only caution I would give you is that there have been some troubling findings about the quality of his findings. Due to supposed "losses" of data there are a couple of results that are questionable at the statistical level. What is interesting though is that even to the extent they are not right (CCW lowers violent crime a statistically significant amount) the data does show that there is certainly no negative impact on crime (crime increases) in states that implement CCW.

Still very much worth reading though.

-Gene

[elsolo]

I think the criticism of his statistics is because the mathematical model he used to correlate crime rates and guns worked for the timeframe he picked for his analysis, but it was reportedly unsuccessfull (by his critics) as a predictor of the crime rates/guns in the following years.

But don't let that dissuade you from reading his books, they are definately worth reading.

[Librarian]

Lott is interesting, and he does have critics. See www.timlambert.org for quite a lot of that; decide for yourself. (Tim has been known to find these threads and remind readers there are problems, so I thought I'd save him the trouble. See also various threads at The High Road; I believe he posts there sometimes, and a like thinker posts as agricola - both are gentlemen, no venom [if, indeed, 'agricola' is male, which I do not know].) See also www.johnlott.com.

Lott has two editions of More Guns, Less Crime. Pick the later one, 2000, where he responds to some of the criticisms.

Gary Kleck has Point Blank, and Targeting Guns, and, with Don Kates, Armed.

Somewhat dated is David Kopel's The Samurai, the Mountie and The Cowboy (1992); Also slightly old is Stephen Halbrook's That Every Man Be Armed (1994), and Joyce Lee Malcom's To Keep and Bear Arms (1996), though the last two are historical and not hurt much by age.

James B. Jacobs has Can Gun Control Work? (2002). Ronald M. and Stephen T. Holmes wrote Murder in America (2001), which also goes into causes of crime.

Lastly, Samuel Walker wrote Sense and Nonsense About Crime and Drugs - also 1994, but very interesting, especially in combination with the Jacobs book.

[Mesa Tactical]

What is interesting though is that even to the extent they are not right (CCW lowers violent crime a statistically significant amount) the data does show that there is certainly no negative impact on crime (crime increases) in states that implement CCW.

Bingo. I point this out all the time, something people (even pro gun people) seem to forget.

You will always have controversy over statistics. I for one am reluctant to use Lott's numbers to assert that CCWs actually reduce crime. But one thing that cannot be denied, and that the gun grabbers don't want to hear, is that liberal CCW laws do not INCREASE crime.

[tman]

Thanks for the replies.

And thanks, Librarian, for the recommendations.


I would not be surprised if more CCW permits does not translate to lower crime rates. I think the idea behind this working is that the criminals are worried about potential victims being armed. I can think of two reasons why this may not work:

1. Criminals may not even know that people can get permits to carry firearms. I didn't even know about CCW permits until I became interested in firearms and got on the internet to do some research.

2. Not enough people have them. When a criminal figures his chances of running into someone carrying a handgun is 1 in a million - then that is a chance he might be willing to take.


I think for CCW permit holders to really make a difference in crime, there would have to be a lot more of them. Either that, or we need open-carry laws, like in New Hampshire: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mu4Dr3B3Rg4

[Pokey]

Another great author is Lt Col Dave Grossman - "On Killing"

[hoffmang]

One point of clarification as I was a bit too simplistic in my comparison that Mesa brings up. At no point is anyone really arguing that overall crime rates go down or stay the same. What Lott was saying was that violent crime gets substituted for by property crime which has some intuitive sense to it. His numbers may not support it so be careful. What is clear is that neither violent crime nor property crime go up with the enactment of shall issue permits.

If provable, the substitution of property crime for violent crime is such an excellent public policy outcome. I expect that we'll get more scholarly research here in coming years.

-Gene

[rocketboy]

Go ahead and get Domestic Enemies: The Reconquista by Matthew Bracken.

[Mesa Tactical]

What is clear is that neither violent crime nor property crime go up with the enactment of shall issue permits.

Exactly. Whatever the controversy, what we DO know is that wild west gun battles over parking spaces don't occur and blood does not run in the streets after a Shall Issue CCW law is enacted.