Worthwhile article about Covid-19 and excess deaths.

[OleCuss]

A worthwhile article from BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/61333847

They looked at excess deaths and the numbers are worth perusing despite some issues with even these numbers.

Overall when you take a look at the numbers it is interesting to look at Sweden in comparison to the others.

I've contended from early on that excess deaths was the best number to use for understanding the lethality of Covid-19. But it was really only a good number early on because once the government started doing stupid stuff you could start attributing deaths to governmental idiocy.

Sweden did not get as oppressive as did many of the others and their number of excess deaths was far lower. This is an argument for the less-oppressive approach.

The flip side of that is that the governments which got very oppressive (I'm thinking China, NoKo, and New Zealand don't show up much (or at all) in the statistics presented in the article. In the case of China and NoKo I don't believe much of anything they say or any statistics they present so they don't mean much.

New Zealand, however, is an interesting study of how extreme measures for isolation can work when an infectious disease has not established itself in the population. Right now it looks pretty good in terms of excess and attributable deaths but it is possible that story may still change.

But note that the New Zealand approach never made sense for here in the USA. Covid-19 was established here in the Central Valley of Kalifornia for months before it was recognized - likely (IMHO) at least by October of 2019.

[anthonyca]

Yet New Zealand had a pretty large increase in excess deaths after the vacine rollout.

https://metatron.substack.com/p/the-entire-new-zealand-mortality?s=r

[toro1]

When looking at excess deaths, one needs to understand what "normal" is being used as that drives the excess number. In 2020 and 2021 the CDC was using an expected death number (normal) that was close to the 2017 deaths which lead to reporting higher excess deaths than what would be reported if they used 2019 numbers or 2019 number plus some expected growth. Additionally, if you drilled down on the 2020 excess death numbers, 60% of them were in the 19-54 age demographic which was not affected by Covid.

The excess death number are certainly the best indicator of what went on, but one needs to understand how that data has been possibly tainted.

[theLBC]

[LBDamned]

^^^ LMAO!

[larkja]

Covid-19 was established here in the Central Valley of Kalifornia for months before it was recognized - likely (IMHO) at least by October of 2019.

Yep. I'm here in Brentwood, next to Antioch, and got the alpha version December 2019. Doctors had no idea what it was. Went on multiple rounds of antibiotics, steroids, and albuterol inhailer. Had all the signs/symptoms. Finally cleared up after ~ 3 months, but the first few weeks were horrible. The rest of my family got it February 2020.

I got the Omicron version February 2022. It was very mild compared to the alpha.

[OleCuss]

When looking at excess deaths, one needs to understand what "normal" is being used as that drives the excess number. In 2020 and 2021 the CDC was using an expected death number (normal) that was close to the 2017 deaths which lead to reporting higher excess deaths than what would be reported if they used 2019 numbers or 2019 number plus some expected growth. Additionally, if you drilled down on the 2020 excess death numbers, 60% of them were in the 19-54 age demographic which was not affected by Covid.

The excess death number are certainly the best indicator of what went on, but one needs to understand how that data has been possibly tainted.

I think that the excess death number is only really relevant to the very early stage of the pandemic.

After a few weeks the government had radically altered everyone's previous behavior in everything from work to exercise to routine medical care, surgeries were delayed, kids were booted out of school, people were in each others' faces in confined areas etc.

Too much else had changed for anything other than the early excess death data to be a good likely measure of the lethality of the pandemic. After the first few weeks it is possible that governmental measures were primarily responsible for the deaths - even if Covid-19 was involved in some or most of the excess deaths.

Excess death data is only useful if there have been no other significant changes in the society. After the government started changing everything you had maybe a few weeks of decent excess death data but I contend that after that the excess deaths are not reliable at indicating the deaths solely or mostly attributable to Covid-19 illness.

BTW, there is a suggestion that India's deaths due to Covid-19 were 10x greater than the reported numbers. If this is true, India's Covid-19 deaths were actually over 4 million.

[subscriber]

I think that the excess death number is only really relevant to the very early stage of the pandemic.

Correct. After that, excess deaths are due to the covax. Perhaps the point the OP is trying to make.

Meaning, the covax is worthless, unless your goals do not include reducing death.

[OleCuss]

Correct. After that, excess deaths are due to the covax. Perhaps the point the OP is trying to make.

Meaning, the covax is worthless, unless your goals do not include reducing death.

My point (as the OP) is not that the Covid-19 vaccines are worthless although their value is increasingly doubtful.

My point is regarding the value of the data. Early on the data on deaths directly due to Covid-19 infection was probably pretty accurately reflected in the rate of excess deaths. Given a few weeks into Covid-19 and because of a myriad of confounding variables and the value of even that statistic was doubtful at best.

From what I've personally observed regarding the vaccines? I don't recall any vaccinated person who died of Covid-19 and into the dozens who died primarily of Covid-19 infections after the vaccines became available but chose not to be vaccinated. The sample size is not huge and the population for which I know what is happening is not randomized so one cannot generalize from what I've seen.

But now the situation is different. I'm seeing few getting ill from Covid-19 whether vaccinated or not. I've not seen anyone hospitalized for complications of Covid-19 for several months (I know it is happening in the area but not in people whom I track).

At this time we appear to have achieved substantial herd immunity and/or the infections are sufficiently mild that people are not even bothered. Seriously, there are a fair number of people who think that they probably have Covid-19 and don't bother with testing or isolation and they and theirs are not dying or becoming seriously ill.

At this time the value of vaccination is pretty doubtful. Some high-risk individuals should probably be ensuring that they have had at least the three-shot sequence but for people who are not high-risk I don't think one can say with confidence that they are likely to benefit from the Covid-19 vaccinations.

Personally, it is mandatory that I have the three shots. That third one gave me a bit of peripheral neuropathy and it may have actually been a very mild Guillain-Barre syndrome. Months after I still have a little numbness in the hands - I'm not an advocate of the idea that the shot can't mess you up.