I did want to express my appreciation for your explanations. This is helping me parse the seeming disconnect between some of the more dire opinions and the far less alarmist estimates I'm encountering in the literature.
Ultimately, what it comes down to is the numbers. On an individual basis, there may not be an easy way to establish a prognosis, but we should still be able to characterize the response in the population. This kind of delayed and hidden fault behavior is familiar in the field of reliability -- the statistics are a little more complicated, but not insoluble.
One thing that interests me, and remains to be seen, is the precise mechanism at work -- particularly when we contrast mRNA action against viral action leading to heart inflammation. The epitope itself may be an irritant, but it seems that autoimmune response is more likely. But there is still a chance that it's part of the adjuvant or some other specific ingredient in the vaccine itself, something that could potentially be changed. I note that there are even examples of Janssen-induced myocarditis that appear not to be coincidental, albeit very few; then again, we mostly see this in youth, and they were not authorized for Janssen.
The biggest mystery is why this is so concentrated in teenage boys. I know they're at greater risk overall, background included, but it seems to be a pretty sharp resonance for these vaccines. That's a strange clue.
Ultimately, what it comes down to is the numbers. On an individual basis, there may not be an easy way to establish a prognosis, but we should still be able to characterize the response in the population. This kind of delayed and hidden fault behavior is familiar in the field of reliability -- the statistics are a little more complicated, but not insoluble.
One thing that interests me, and remains to be seen, is the precise mechanism at work -- particularly when we contrast mRNA action against viral action leading to heart inflammation. The epitope itself may be an irritant, but it seems that autoimmune response is more likely. But there is still a chance that it's part of the adjuvant or some other specific ingredient in the vaccine itself, something that could potentially be changed. I note that there are even examples of Janssen-induced myocarditis that appear not to be coincidental, albeit very few; then again, we mostly see this in youth, and they were not authorized for Janssen.
The biggest mystery is why this is so concentrated in teenage boys. I know they're at greater risk overall, background included, but it seems to be a pretty sharp resonance for these vaccines. That's a strange clue.


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