Weekly total deaths

[Scota4570]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Scroll down to the chart.

From the chart you can see we are way below the normal deaths for this time of year. Because COVID was so bad for the over 65 crowd a large portion of the people who would be dying now are all ready dead.

Before covid started we had two mild flu seasons. Many older folks who normally would have passed were hanging on. Covid came along a took them. Next year, if the data is honest, we will have mild flu year. (BTW, Covid is a flu)

[ACfixer]

Mask up and comply plebe! Haven't you heard? You need two masks and three doses now.

[elSquid]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Scroll down to the chart.

From the chart you can see we are way below the normal deaths for this time of year. Because COVID was so bad for the over 65 crowd a large portion of the people who would be dying now are all ready dead.

Right under the graph:

Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death

This mortality tracker highlights data points that are incomplete:

https://episphere.github.io/mortalitytracker/#cause=allcause&state=All%20States

[Paul_R]

And virtually no flu deaths the entire season. Yeah pay no attention to the man behind the curtain....

[Scota4570]

Right under the graph:

Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death

They always lag due to data entry lag on the most recent time. Thing is the total deaths from all causes is way below average and has been for a while. The time is long enough to eliminate the data lag for the most recent weeks. The point is to eliminate covid misinformation and look at all deaths. All deaths are very low. That means covid is not causing many deaths.

[elSquid]

They always lag due to data entry lag on the most recent time. Thing is the total deaths from all causes is way below average and has been for a while. The time is long enough to eliminate the data lag for the most recent weeks.

You assert that, the folks behind the chart say otherwise.

Simple way to resolve issue: capture current snapshot for a given week, check back in a month or two to see if the numbers for the week increase as more deaths are reported back to the CDC.

march27excessdeaths.jpg

I picked the week ending Mar 27, which doesn't seem too recent. If you feel that it is, you may wish to capture an earlier datapoint from the chart in this thread.

Average expected deaths - 57,927
Upper bound for excess - 59,632
Predicted - 51,503
Percent excess - 0

So I guess that we will see...if somebody remembers to bump this thread in, say, the first part of June.

: shrug :

-- Michael

[elSquid]

I picked the week ending Mar 27, which doesn't seem too recent. If you feel that it is, you may wish to capture an earlier datapoint from the chart in this thread.

Average expected deaths - 57,927
Upper bound for excess - 59,632
Predicted - 51,503
Percent excess - 0

So I guess that we will see...if somebody remembers to bump this thread in, say, the first part of June.

[elSquid]

[therealnickb]

Adjust for an aging population. Check it after a couple years.

[stonefly-2]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Scroll down to the chart.

From the chart you can see we are way below the normal deaths for this time of year. Because COVID was so bad for the over 65 crowd a large portion of the people who would be dying now are all ready dead.

Before covid started we had two mild flu seasons. Many older folks who normally would have passed were hanging on. Covid came along a took them. Next year, if the data is honest, we will have mild flu year. (BTW, Covid is a flu)

Interesting that you draw that conclusion.

I feel cheated in my prediction from so many months ago that our hyper attention to germs and communicable disease would have just this result.

[Scota4570]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Cases and deaths continue to drop after plummeting January to April. We are now under 500 deaths per week and have been for a month. That is less than 25K death per year. That is a very low by traditional flu standards.

There was a CDC chart that described what pandemic level is. It seems to be gone now. It was like the one linked above but they changed it months ago to delete the epidemic threshold.

We'll probably have a blip in the next two weeks and it will continue to ratchet down. We'll see.

The take away is that we have reached herd immunity. The majority of those who were in danger are vaxed or dead. Many people got it and are now immune. At this point the masks and pushing the jab on my children is insanity.