New study: Shutdowns were not worth it

[therealnickb]

Huh? I came to the same conclusion in March of 2020.

[Dan_Eastvale]

I really believe that non compliance will prevent Biden's Covid Task Force Chief's draconian shutdown proposal from gaining steam.

[balgor]

Their analysis suffers from endogeneity.

What they basically do is regressing case growth in Spring (terrible data) on a bunch of NPIs. Then they're puzzled bc their results indicate a positive "effect" of some NPIs on case growth. Well, that's not puzzling at all, that's because NPIs and case growth are endogenous!

NPIs tend to get tougher the worse the case growth gets. But case growth might already be taking off when you've just tightened your NPIs, making cases further grow exponentially before the NPIs do anything. This results in a positive correlation between NPIs and case growth.

But obviously, this correlation is not causal; it's not the NPIs driving cases higher, it's the worsening epidemic. For the paper, this means their estimates are biased and worthless for what they want to investigate bc they don't come close to causal effects of NPIs.

I'm fairly certain that in economics, this paper would have been rejected with some very unfriendly comments.

[MrFancyPants]

Could have told you this 10 months ago when everything came grinding to a halt. The only thing that shocks me is how many people fell for the bull****, and STILL do!

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[SmokeTheClay]

The goal of the lockdowns was met: Trump lost the presidency

[bigbossman]

Their analysis suffers.......

Well, that didn't take long.

[five.five-six]

This is what the moron class around here doesn't understand. Much like how Amazon and Walmart have seen their sales rise dramatically as closed small business money flows to them, so too will billions of dollars in revenue begin flowing to China as a result of the lock downs and business closures/failures.

China could not have hoped for a better outcome, in an single year they have taken over almost completely in the US, and their man in Washington is just the coup de gras.

[duenor]

What balgor puts in more edumacated terms is what others have said multiple times in response to claims like "masks make covid19 worse". These misinformation peddlers use graphs to show that, look, after mask mandates went into place, covid got worse! Then they make another graph that shows how in another state, they had no mask mandate, and covid got better!

It's deliberate misinformation because mask mandates, lockdowns, etc are put into place IN RESPONSE TO RISING RATES. And, unless you are talking about China-level orders, those interventions are universally far from total or even immediate.

In analogy, you can look at how police depts began mandating body armor in the 80s - and police getting killed in the line of duty went up! Then you look at how in India, there is no body armor mandate... And rates of police getting shot are at an all time low!

Therefore, can we conclude that body armor mandates get police killed?

[five.five-six]

Masks and lockdowns don’t stop coronavirus. They barely even slow it down at all.


They are murder on an economy though.

[middleofnowhere]

The goal of the lockdowns was met: Trump lost the presidency

100% effective

[M1NM]

So the "new" study echoed the findings of the "old" study. What will the new-new study reveal?

[UCT]

Shutdowns don't work and won't work because they are not 100 percent lock down for a long enough period. Masks don't work and this has been proven many times. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26...4_article#tnF2 People don't have the right type of mask that could work, and even if they did most wouldn't wear it properly. I have seen medical personnel wearing true N-95 masks improperly.

[Hammertime]

It’s like any zombie movie or series I’ve ever seen.

The average person is absolutely stupid and that guarantees a spread despite the strictest measures.

[socal m1 shooter]

Treehouse put up a good post regarding this.

[duenor]

Regarding masks - it's your life, do whatever feels right for you. It seems strange to me that one would want to err on the side of incaution, though, given the seriously unpleasant effects of even relatively mild COVID19 cases. Lung scarring takes a very long time to heal, if it does at all.